1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

Never bet on only 6z runs, let downs always. Follow the trends which have been disappointing the past couple days.

jmanley32 wrote:So thats it, no more chances for north or stronger run or is it still possible?

There are 00z runs tonight, but this is beginning to look like a south storm. The PV is too strong and the ridge in western Canada is pushing it too far south. Suppressive look. You do not usually see this in March

Was the storm fully sampled for the 12z run?

I been saying there will be no north trend for us in the mid-Hudson valley will be lucky to see anything plus even south will be screwed the south trend will continue!

Snow map from 12z GFS with ratios



Looks like my 1st call

Mets2695 wrote:Was the storm fully sampled for the 12z run?

Yes

NYC actually gets a solid 6 inches on the GFS. No one should be upset by this run. It is great for March standards.

the winter storm watches will be lifted by tonight except southern NJ if this trend does what I think it will.

That run just plain out sucked for us in NNJ and the HV IMO! I may see 4-5" up here but who knows what tomorrow will bring. If you asked anyone who follows the weather that the PV in March would squash a storm and DC to Phill would get 10+" they would laugh at you - they don't care about snow like we do up here - MF!!  I am going out now.

Frank_Wx wrote:NYC actually gets a solid 6 inches on the GFS. No one should be upset by this run. It is great for March standards.

My concern is NYC and LI is barely in the 6". So they have a better chance of getting 3-5" which isn't anything to really get excited about lol.

The problem, encroaching arctic high bullying the weak LP

It's the PV Tom, not that High.

Look at the size of that thing in SE CA

Frank_Wx wrote:NYC actually gets a solid 6 inches on the GFS. No one should be upset by this run. It is great for March standards.

Of course, I've been saying that the overrunning now has a decent chance to deliver most of the snowfall, we're just missing the main storm which is annoying given it's friggin suppression by the PV in March which is Meteorological spring, however, considering around I-95 nearly all March storms of the past 20 years have been less than a foot. This may be record breaking for those jerks down south lol.

Someone please send out the butterflies!! Turn on the leaf blowers and move this PV NW!!

So would it be wise to tell people who are hounding me for snow accumulations that it looks like more of a 3-6" event for us now or should i stick with my 6-10" that i downgraded to early this morning?

Cnj,coastal nj,snj in jackpot

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:NYC actually gets a solid 6 inches on the GFS. No one should be upset by this run. It is great for March standards.

Of course, I've been saying that the overrunning now has a decent chance to deliver most of the snowfall, we're just missing the main storm which is annoying given it's friggin suppression by the PV in March which is Meteorological spring, however, considering around I-95 nearly all March storms of the past 20 years have been less than a foot. This may be record breaking for those jerks down south lol.

This has been the winter that defies the odds. I do not think I am surprised about anything that happens anymore. Although, I admit this is most surprising. Possibly near 12 inches of snow from DC to Philly. In March. Wow

What models are left for 12z

Mets2695 wrote:So would it be wise to tell people who are hounding me for snow accumulations that it looks like more of a 3-6" event for us now or should i stick with my 6-10" that i downgraded to early this morning?

I would say 5-9 inches.

Frank_Wx wrote:It's the PV Tom, not that High.

Look at the size of that thing in SE CA

The storm that's dying and transferring energy right now or the weak ridge? True it is the PV but that high looks awfully overpowering and squashing by the looks of it. Not going to allow NE movement.

pdubz wrote:What models are left for 12z

GGEM, UKMET, EURO

Guys,

It is worth mentioning that if there is a bump northward of 20+ miles, which Iv'e seen before this close before an event, we are back into the heavier snow amounts of 7+ inches. Do not forget, the main show starts Sunday night. So we have 00z runs tonight AND 12z runs tomorrow. Even so, GFS was still 6-9 inches for NYC.

Whats the start time and ending look like

This is so depressing I have a headache from all this was really looking forward to one last big hit from winter hopefully somehow we get surprised !!

skinsfan1177 wrote:Whats the start time and ending look like

I'll have those up around 2pm today

At 2pm I will also release my 2nd call snow map