1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

skinsfan1177 wrote:Whats the start time and ending look like

I'll have those up around 2pm today

At 2pm I will also release my 2nd call snow map

Good pt Frank!- still time for this bad boy - like I said send out the butterflies you Southern Aholes!

The PV is suppressing the northern precip shield like we've seen on the storms of '09-'10 namely the Snowmageddon that slammed central PA, PHI, and DC which huge amounts but suppressing PV actually caused the storm to back southeast when it tried to come up the coast leading to a very weird precip shield with a massive cutoff. Look at the cutoff here, SOOOO close yet so far.



In PA looks like 15 miles between .1" QPF and 1", it's really crazy like the BDB cutoff which we are on the sour side as of now, not so funny anymore when it's not just my house haha.

RGEM looks pretty good for both waves
http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

docstox12 wrote:Think it stays with the southern solution.

Frank was spot on a few days ago when all these models were blowing up crazy snow amounts up here.He stated he was worried about the PV being too strong and that's exactly what the recent models are confirming.This is a WAY southern storm.

Tom, just a 20-30 mile shift north and those .8-.9 qpf's boardering central NJ come into our area.

Mets2695 wrote:RGEM looks pretty good for both waves
http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Don't want to see precip type, need to see QPF, don't know if those maps came out yet I always have a hard time finding them

docstox12 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:Think it stays with the southern solution.

Frank was spot on a few days ago when all these models were blowing up crazy snow amounts up here.He stated he was worried about the PV being too strong and that's exactly what the recent models are confirming.This is a WAY southern storm.

Yea, a couple days ago people were really hyping up this storm. While it has a lot of potential, one has to look at the overall pattern. I still think a sizable 8-10 inch storm is possible for NYC, but obviously not those crazy 12+ amounts. 6-9 inches is a good call for NYC right now, which is what I have in my 1st call. Less for northern areas

12z UKMET is south by quite a bit. I do not have precip maps, so do not ask how much. Lol

Thanks for all the info Frank. Feel like there will be another bump one way or the other in the next 12 hours. Like you said, even a slight bump north, which is extremely possible, puts the jackpot much closer to NYC. We'll stay tuned.

Latest RADAR:

Still churning in the West..........

roccuweather wrote:Thanks for all the info Frank.  Feel like there will be another bump one way or the other in the next 12 hours.  Like you said, even a slight bump north, which is extremely possible, puts the jackpot much closer to NYC.  We'll stay tuned.

Welcome!

Hey I NEVER hype lol because I know stuff like this happens. Frank, I know a small north shift would be huge but I don't know if we're going to be lucky enough to get it. At the moment I'm betting on the PV over this weak system, it could also go further south and make it even farther away.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:The PV is suppressing the northern precip shield like we've seen on the storms of '09-'10 namely the Snowmageddon that slammed central PA, PHI, and DC which huge amounts but suppressing PV actually caused the storm to back southeast when it tried to come up the coast leading to a very weird precip shield with a massive cutoff. Look at the cutoff here, SOOOO close yet so far.



In PA looks like 15 miles between .1" QPF and 1", it's really crazy like the BDB cutoff which we are on the sour side as of now, not so funny anymore when it's not just my house haha.

Great comparison for this storm to the 09-10 storms that busted out up here.

This stinks. Just 36 hours ago we were looking at 14-20 inches.Now we'll be lucky to squeeze out 6. Frank mentions just a 25 mile shift north and its 7+. Starting to run out of time. Want to see a north trend start at 18z and 00z, or else you can stick a fork into this one.  

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Hey I NEVER hype lol because I know stuff like this happens. Frank, I know a small north shift would be huge but I don't know if we're going to be lucky enough to get it. At the moment I'm betting on the PV over this weak system, it could also go further south and make it even farther away.

No one on this forum was hyping. We are quality posters. Lol

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Hey I NEVER hype lol because I know stuff like this happens. Frank, I know a small north shift would be huge but I don't know if we're going to be lucky enough to get it. At the moment I'm betting on the PV over this weak system, it could also go further south and make it even farther away.

You need a monster Miller A with a lot of moisture coming right up the coast to blast away a PV like this one.This storm just skirts west to east.

Gotta do some errands. Be back around 1pm, when EURO comes out

docstox12 wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Hey I NEVER hype lol because I know stuff like this happens. Frank, I know a small north shift would be huge but I don't know if we're going to be lucky enough to get it. At the moment I'm betting on the PV over this weak system, it could also go further south and make it even farther away.

You need a monster Miller A with a lot of moisture coming right up the coast to blast away a PV like this one.This storm just skirts west to east.

Even then only works for eastern areas, BDB. Not sure if that was PV related western screw or what, forgot because I try to block it out of my mind haha.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Hey I NEVER hype lol because I know stuff like this happens. Frank, I know a small north shift would be huge but I don't know if we're going to be lucky enough to get it. At the moment I'm betting on the PV over this weak system, it could also go further south and make it even farther away.

I'm with you NJWeather. I see the trend to stay put or shift slight south again if anything.

Agree with you and welcome aboard roc. The concrete is starting to set on this storms model runs.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Hey I NEVER hype lol because I know stuff like this happens. Frank, I know a small north shift would be huge but I don't know if we're going to be lucky enough to get it. At the moment I'm betting on the PV over this weak system, it could also go further south and make it even farther away.

You need a monster Miller A with a lot of moisture coming right up the coast to blast away a PV like this one.This storm just skirts west to east.

Even then only works for eastern areas, BDB. Not sure if that was PV related western screw or what, forgot because I try to block it out of my mind haha.

Yeah, it's screwy this time of the year for a PV effect.

Nontheless, we are sitting on great snowfall totals.You will do better than me, tom, down south further.

docstox12 wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Hey I NEVER hype lol because I know stuff like this happens. Frank, I know a small north shift would be huge but I don't know if we're going to be lucky enough to get it. At the moment I'm betting on the PV over this weak system, it could also go further south and make it even farther away.

You need a monster Miller A with a lot of moisture coming right up the coast to blast away a PV like this one.This storm just skirts west to east.

Even then only works for eastern areas, BDB. Not sure if that was PV related western screw or what, forgot because I try to block it out of my mind haha.

Yeah, it's screwy this time of the year for a PV effect.

Nontheless, we are sitting on great snowfall totals.You will do better than me, tom, down south further.

Theoretically, however yet again if it shifts further south we all do horribly and get uniform QPF from the overrunning.

And that is a very possible solution as well.The overrunning is what, 2 or 3?

I'm done for this one.

Hoping NYC squeezes 6.0 inches out of it to get to number 2, 3.0 inches will put it at 5. That looked like a lock for them 2 days ago, 50-50 now.

I'm not good at interpreting models and I don't pretend to be but when I saw 2 days ago highs in the upper teens up here on a day it's suppose to snow alot in March and a storm traveling east west, it never sat well with me. That works if it's the blizzard of 1888 but not for this storm.

I hope now it suppresses to NC, WDC doesn't deserve it, they've made a mess of things. Both parties so don't think I'm picking sides.

docstox12 wrote:And that is a very possible solution as well.The overrunning is what, 2 or 3?

According to the NAM just the overrunning is .3-.6" QPF depending on where you are, NYC is like .45", LI is .4", west central NJ and E-PA are .5-.62 and northern NJ is .35-.45"