September Observations/ Discussion

Re 96L:  Looks like low level circulation center has drifted south this am.  Completely devoid of convection anywhere near it however.  The bigger black circle is the main LLC.  There might be another small center spinning just to the NE of the main center.  




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20-30 kts windshear over top with outflow only in the NE quad., so not likely to see much development out of this any time soon. \

52 here this morning

Look at the temps upstate, mid 30's with frost advisories.

49 here now, 83%, 30.07 R. Mostly clear. Nice normal cool weather this week, although we go dry again.

38.6 last night even with some clouds and light wind in the valley.

Bottomed out at 47.8, was looking for low 40's but maybe tonight.

I agree Doc back to normal, those 80's last week were getting depressing. Hoping we can drop below 40 one night this week. Absolutely beautiful day yesterday but this dryness has to end, I'm starting to get concerned.

Quietace wrote:38.6 last night even with some clouds and light wind in the valley.

Ace,

WHAT ???? OMG I just realized that yuo are in God's Land up in Vermont!! I was like how the h did pt. pleasant get to 38* last night!!

amugs wrote:

Quietace wrote:38.6 last night even with some clouds and light wind in the valley.

Ace,

WHAT ???? OMG I just realized that yuo are in God's Land up in Vermont!! I was like how the h did pt. pleasant get to 38* last night!!

Sadly, we didn't get a true nocturnal temp inversion last night due to the light winds and stray clouds. Still just to much mixing. Without that we would have bottomed out near freezing.

LOL, I thought the same thing,Mugsy, maybe an iceberg landed next to Point Pleasant.Ryan is up in Vermont, totally missed that.

docstox12 wrote:LOL, I thought the same thing,Mugsy, maybe an iceberg landed next to Point Pleasant.Ryan is up in Vermont, totally missed that.

Actually I thought Ryan was in NH and Alex in Vermont?

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

docstox12 wrote:LOL, I thought the same thing,Mugsy, maybe an iceberg landed next to Point Pleasant.Ryan is up in Vermont, totally missed that.

Actually I thought Ryan was in NH and Alex in Vermont?

Who can keep track of these kids these days anyway.

Walpack ,NJ 40 degrees this morning.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

docstox12 wrote:LOL, I thought the same thing,Mugsy, maybe an iceberg landed next to Point Pleasant.Ryan is up in Vermont, totally missed that.

Actually I thought Ryan was in NH and Alex in Vermont?

This is true. Alex is at Lyndon, Im at Plymouth.

CP to the rescue - KIDS these days

jmanley32 wrote:Everyone is saying its going to be a bad winter, not sure where they are getting their info, media sources?

Actually no one knows for sure. Not to get too technical its all dependent on where the best tropical forcing sets up in the pacific. The farther west the better. We also have to watch if the AO/NAO works in our favor... there are signs that they will. Still too early too tell yet, but getting closer. We should know where's winter heading in the next 4-6 weeks.

jmanley32 wrote:Everyone is saying its going to be a bad winter, not sure where they are getting their info, media sources?

Oman I keep getting the same thing from people Everyone pumping up this winter bc of the farmers almanac I like to know how good is the farmers almanac. Is here know what we need to watch. I tell people to be patient

Going to be a cool night. These temps feel great. Is anyone going to miss summer?

Frank_Wx wrote:Going to be a cool night. These temps feel great. Is anyone going to miss summer?

Love these temps, good sleeping weather finally. I could tell we were in for a cool night when I actually had to close my windows a bit an hour or so ago because it was actually getting cool in my place. As for missing summer, I never miss summer in the fall, or early winter (especially when the snowstorms come). I usually start to miss summer around late March, just when it's about to come back again. Then by July when I'm tired of sweating through my dress shirts and burning my hands on my car steering wheel, I'm quickly reminded why it's not so great.

Only 42 for a low last night. Full cloud cover in the valley, but fully saturated atmoshpere. RH is 100%

SUPER MOON upcoming and will have "astronomical" high tides so those of you along the coast will see some minor tidal flooding. Now if the coastal storm that is being modeled makes its way further North then we may have something to discuss on this board. If not we can still see a persistent onshore flow with the HP system over SE Canada and a NE flow which can increase the tidal flooding. Anything over 2' is considered moderate. The tides are to be running .5-1' above normal during this super moon time frame that is to occur on Sept 28th. It is the closest moon to the earth of the super moons and will be up from dusk to dawn.

Close up of what you have there JMAN - yikes is right
IF the HP over NE weakens and the Coastal Strengthens we may have something to talk about here. A lot of time thought and this could be a kick in arse to get things going this fall . The ol' Stones song - Start Me Up!

My parents had 38* at their house two mornings ago, and it got cloudy soon after midnight......too bad lol we have yet to dip below 50 here in Fishkill >_<

Looks interesting but the High Pressure over se canada and the GL . Has some tropical aspects to it. This would usually roll on ip the coast this time of year but the HP is going to surpress it

amugs wrote:Looks interesting but the High Pressure over se canada and the GL . Has some tropical aspects to it. This would usually roll on ip the coast this time of year but the HP is going to surpress it

If this becomes an issue it will be early next week when the High slides east and the front to the west tries to capture this energy. I expect this week and weekend to be mainly dry.

Temps the next 2 days will get a little warmer - near 80 - but we'll go back to normal by the weekend. Overall, not much to report in the short range.