NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

+31
Mathgod55
snowday111
Quietace
jimv45
WeatherJeff1224
devsman
snow247
Math23x7
docstox12
Grselig
GreyBeard
Joe Snow
oldtimer
Snow88
nutleyblizzard
essexcountypete
hyde345
NjWeatherGuy
CPcantmeasuresnow
SNOW MAN
algae888
skinsfan1177
SoulSingMG
amugs
jmanley32
sroc4
Dunnzoo
frank 638
billg315
weatherwatchermom
Frank_Wx
35 posters

Page 5 of 16 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 10 ... 16  Next

Go down

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Empty Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 05, 2016 6:41 pm

@Joe Snow wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:15z SREF

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html#picture


That looks familiar............seems like I saw that a few weeks ago.
yeah but not as strong look at those isobars! And there's a lot of them.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17978
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Empty Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 05, 2016 6:43 pm

Use caution with SREFs in long range, just interesting to see how amped some of those members are, something to watch as we get closer.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Empty Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 05, 2016 6:52 pm

Yes nj but still encouraging and exciting to drool lol and actually I forgot how close we actually are some them already in 50 to 60 hr range.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17978
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Empty Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 05, 2016 7:53 pm

Different setup but me wanty 5 year ago repeat

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/10-Feb-10-SurfaceMaps.html
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Empty Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 05, 2016 7:55 pm

Sorry 6 years ago now, time flies
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Empty Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 05, 2016 8:22 pm

@GreyBeard wrote:Actually I'm on my way into NYC for the night. I'll have thoughts up around 10pm. I already told my friend I need to use his laptop because I need to update my NJ Strong fam.



Frank,Frank,Frank, its Friday night, you're going to the city, young and single, go to a club and chase some real models instead of some weather models. Very Happy You're only young once, but the weather will be around forever. tongue[/quote]

This is great advice, Frank.Damn, I wish I was 40 years younger and could join you.Have a blast man!
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7243
Reputation : 214
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Empty Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Feb 05, 2016 8:24 pm

@GreyBeard wrote:Actually I'm on my way into NYC for the night. I'll have thoughts up around 10pm. I already told my friend I need to use his laptop because I need to update my NJ Strong fam.



Frank,Frank,Frank, its Friday night, you're going to the city, young and single, go to a club and chase some real models instead of some weather models. Very Happy You're only young once, but the weather will be around forever. tongue[/quote]

ooh I agree with Docstoc.you are only young once...enjoy that city...ooh if some of those club walls could talk...he he he..enjoy your night!! drunken drunken
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2950
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Empty Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

Post by SoulSingMG Fri Feb 05, 2016 8:42 pm

MITCHEL VOLK (NYC's 'Secret' WX weapon):


"I think there is a decent chance that it does track west. The interaction of the short wave coming in will make a big difference. Many thins can ann I believe will change.."
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2739
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Empty Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

Post by Math23x7 Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:03 pm

Frank, if you're in Midtown Manhattan right now, you will probably notice the lack of snow on the sidewalks and streets.  I was at work today in that region and saw the snow come down but not stick.  Believe it or not, this was the first time I can recall being in Midtown for a snowstorm.  As a result, I was in for a major disappointment.  The urban heat island effect took full force Sad

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2288
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Empty Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:28 pm

21z SREF

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_21z/srefloop.html#picture
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Empty Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:28 pm

Been away for awhile so no tracking the mo,day storm here. I thought this has potential.
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Empty Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:48 pm

FWIW the NAM is inching ever closer to a capture.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6888
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Empty Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:58 pm

Having a chance to look over latest data I'm not too impressed with Mondays possible storm. 

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 February_5_2016_94152_PM_EST
Wave 2 is currently in the SW CONUS tracking east-northeast. Once it crosses the Mississippi it closes off into an upper low. It's eerily similar to Jonas except I think Jonas had less obstacles to overcome. Heights are nicely rising along the EC so you would think the closed upper low takes more of a north than east track. But, there's wave 3 pushing against the disoriented western ridge which rolls it forward to basically boot wave 2 out to sea. 

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 February_5_2016_94558_PM_EST
What I described is better seen Saturday evening. Wave 2 is dug deeply into the flow touching the Gulf. It's not wonder models show such a beast offshore.  Notice the higher heights over the Midwest signaling the collapsing ridge and keeping the flow progressive. Wave 3 is also entering the CONUS at this time. The red line is roughly the track Jonas took and the black line is where most models are tracking Mondays storm. Unless there's northern stream phasing or someway for the flow to slow down to allow the upper low to track north, I don't see how this storm gets close enough to the coast Monday to bring substantial snow. There's a chance the precip field is large enough to bring a minor event to the immediate coast so we'll see. 

I still remain interested in Wave 3. The pattern is re-amplifying but it will only work if Wave 2 stays as far off the coast as possible. Hopefully I'm totally off and models track another Roidzilla up the coast. We'll see what happens.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Empty Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 05, 2016 10:02 pm

@sroc4 wrote:FWIW the NAM is inching ever closer to a capture.  

Yes, this is the tertiary way the Monday storm could happen. By a capture. At this point I think it's very encouraging the NAM shoes this since we all know how it performed with Jonas and this is a similar setup with dynamics involving multiple jet streaks. 4-K NAM is basically a Godzilla for LI.

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Hires_ref_ne_61

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Empty Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 05, 2016 10:05 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:Frank, if you're in Midtown Manhattan right now, you will probably notice the lack of snow on the sidewalks and streets.  I was at work today in that region and saw the snow come down but not stick.  Believe it or not, this was the first time I can recall being in Midtown for a snowstorm.  As a result, I was in for a major disappointment.  The urban heat island effect took full force Sad

It's quite amazing. Nothing.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Empty Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 05, 2016 10:09 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:FWIW the NAM is inching ever closer to a capture.  

Yes, this is the tertiary way the Monday storm could happen. By a capture. At this point I think it's very encouraging the NAM shoes this since we all know how it performed with Jonas and this is a similar setup with dynamics involving multiple jet streaks. 4-K NAM is basically a Godzilla for LI.

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Hires_ref_ne_61

That's the only thing that turns this thing up and maybe NW if it really gets captured. Euro was close today too.  We just need the trough to tilt a little neg.  With the last minute trends with todays trough to go neg, and with todays storm potentially slowing things down a little out in the Atlantic, even though there is not a lot of time left, there is just enough to make things interesting for this first wave esp for central NJ up through NE.  This would be a monster.  

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 <a href=February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Ecmwf_83" />

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6888
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Empty Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 05, 2016 10:11 pm

People were knocking Bastardi for comparing the SETUP to Hurricane Sandy. I see exactly what he means.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Empty Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 05, 2016 10:11 pm

Haven't these models shown today coastal areas getting into good precip
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Empty Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 05, 2016 10:15 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:People were knocking Bastardi for comparing the SETUP to Hurricane Sandy. I see exactly what he means.

It was actually Garret who first brought it to JB's attention. Def similarities in the set up. Intriguing to say the least.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6888
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Empty Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 05, 2016 10:17 pm

Be back on tomorrow.  Night all.  Should be an interesting week ahead.  Im supposed to be hosting a super bowl party. Not sure what Im going to do if Im tracking a roidzilla for Monday. drunken

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6888
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Empty Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 05, 2016 10:34 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:FWIW the NAM is inching ever closer to a capture.  

Yes, this is the tertiary way the Monday storm could happen. By a capture. At this point I think it's very encouraging the NAM shoes this since we all know how it performed with Jonas and this is a similar setup with dynamics involving multiple jet streaks. 4-K NAM is basically a Godzilla for LI.

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Hires_ref_ne_61

How is this not a godzilla for NYC, looks like crazy precip all around.? And Sandy setup, a recurve?  Although you say your not that impressed do you still think its possible we have a crazy storm possibly coming in 3 days?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17978
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Empty Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

Post by SoulSingMG Fri Feb 05, 2016 10:46 pm

Monday is a new moon. 😢
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2739
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Empty Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 05, 2016 11:01 pm

Sleepless nights ahead
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Empty Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

Post by snow247 Fri Feb 05, 2016 11:21 pm

GFS has snow from Monday to Thursday. Gives most of us 2-5 inches, a bit more N & W.
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Empty Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

Post by Snow88 Fri Feb 05, 2016 11:52 pm

I got snow in my forecast from Sunday - Friday lol

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Brooklyn&state=NY&site=OKX&lat=40.6498&lon=-73.9488#.VrV7f0-gvlY
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2118
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 32
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 5 Empty Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 5 of 16 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 10 ... 16  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum