February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

@Joe Snow wrote:

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:15z SREF

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html#picture

That looks familiar............seems like I saw that a few weeks ago.

yeah but not as strong look at those isobars! And there's a lot of them.

Use caution with SREFs in long range, just interesting to see how amped some of those members are, something to watch as we get closer.

Yes nj but still encouraging and exciting to drool lol and actually I forgot how close we actually are some them already in 50 to 60 hr range.

Different setup but me wanty 5 year ago repeat

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/10-Feb-10-SurfaceMaps.html

Sorry 6 years ago now, time flies

@GreyBeard wrote:Actually I'm on my way into NYC for the night. I'll have thoughts up around 10pm. I already told my friend I need to use his laptop because I need to update my NJ Strong fam.

Frank,Frank,Frank, its Friday night, you're going to the city, young and single, go to a club and chase some real models instead of some weather models. You're only young once, but the weather will be around forever. [/quote]

This is great advice, Frank.Damn, I wish I was 40 years younger and could join you.Have a blast man!

@GreyBeard wrote:Actually I'm on my way into NYC for the night. I'll have thoughts up around 10pm. I already told my friend I need to use his laptop because I need to update my NJ Strong fam.

Frank,Frank,Frank, its Friday night, you're going to the city, young and single, go to a club and chase some real models instead of some weather models. You're only young once, but the weather will be around forever. [/quote]

ooh I agree with Docstoc.you are only young once...enjoy that city...ooh if some of those club walls could talk...he he he..enjoy your night!!

MITCHEL VOLK (NYC's 'Secret' WX weapon):


"I think there is a decent chance that it does track west. The interaction of the short wave coming in will make a big difference. Many thins can ann I believe will change.."

Frank, if you're in Midtown Manhattan right now, you will probably notice the lack of snow on the sidewalks and streets.  I was at work today in that region and saw the snow come down but not stick.  Believe it or not, this was the first time I can recall being in Midtown for a snowstorm.  As a result, I was in for a major disappointment.  The urban heat island effect took full force

21z SREF

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_21z/srefloop.html#picture

Been away for awhile so no tracking the mo,day storm here. I thought this has potential.

FWIW the NAM is inching ever closer to a capture.

Having a chance to look over latest data I'm not too impressed with Mondays possible storm. 


Wave 2 is currently in the SW CONUS tracking east-northeast. Once it crosses the Mississippi it closes off into an upper low. It's eerily similar to Jonas except I think Jonas had less obstacles to overcome. Heights are nicely rising along the EC so you would think the closed upper low takes more of a north than east track. But, there's wave 3 pushing against the disoriented western ridge which rolls it forward to basically boot wave 2 out to sea. 


What I described is better seen Saturday evening. Wave 2 is dug deeply into the flow touching the Gulf. It's not wonder models show such a beast offshore.  Notice the higher heights over the Midwest signaling the collapsing ridge and keeping the flow progressive. Wave 3 is also entering the CONUS at this time. The red line is roughly the track Jonas took and the black line is where most models are tracking Mondays storm. Unless there's northern stream phasing or someway for the flow to slow down to allow the upper low to track north, I don't see how this storm gets close enough to the coast Monday to bring substantial snow. There's a chance the precip field is large enough to bring a minor event to the immediate coast so we'll see. 

I still remain interested in Wave 3. The pattern is re-amplifying but it will only work if Wave 2 stays as far off the coast as possible. Hopefully I'm totally off and models track another Roidzilla up the coast. We'll see what happens.

@sroc4 wrote:FWIW the NAM is inching ever closer to a capture.  

Yes, this is the tertiary way the Monday storm could happen. By a capture. At this point I think it's very encouraging the NAM shoes this since we all know how it performed with Jonas and this is a similar setup with dynamics involving multiple jet streaks. 4-K NAM is basically a Godzilla for LI.

@Math23x7 wrote:Frank, if you're in Midtown Manhattan right now, you will probably notice the lack of snow on the sidewalks and streets.  I was at work today in that region and saw the snow come down but not stick.  Believe it or not, this was the first time I can recall being in Midtown for a snowstorm.  As a result, I was in for a major disappointment.  The urban heat island effect took full force

It's quite amazing. Nothing.

@Frank_Wx wrote:

@sroc4 wrote:FWIW the NAM is inching ever closer to a capture.  

Yes, this is the tertiary way the Monday storm could happen. By a capture. At this point I think it's very encouraging the NAM shoes this since we all know how it performed with Jonas and this is a similar setup with dynamics involving multiple jet streaks. 4-K NAM is basically a Godzilla for LI.

That's the only thing that turns this thing up and maybe NW if it really gets captured. Euro was close today too.  We just need the trough to tilt a little neg.  With the last minute trends with todays trough to go neg, and with todays storm potentially slowing things down a little out in the Atlantic, even though there is not a lot of time left, there is just enough to make things interesting for this first wave esp for central NJ up through NE.  This would be a monster.  

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People were knocking Bastardi for comparing the SETUP to Hurricane Sandy. I see exactly what he means.

Haven't these models shown today coastal areas getting into good precip

@Frank_Wx wrote:People were knocking Bastardi for comparing the SETUP to Hurricane Sandy. I see exactly what he means.

It was actually Garret who first brought it to JB's attention. Def similarities in the set up. Intriguing to say the least.

Be back on tomorrow.  Night all.  Should be an interesting week ahead.  Im supposed to be hosting a super bowl party. Not sure what Im going to do if Im tracking a roidzilla for Monday.

@Frank_Wx wrote:

@sroc4 wrote:FWIW the NAM is inching ever closer to a capture.  

Yes, this is the tertiary way the Monday storm could happen. By a capture. At this point I think it's very encouraging the NAM shoes this since we all know how it performed with Jonas and this is a similar setup with dynamics involving multiple jet streaks. 4-K NAM is basically a Godzilla for LI.

How is this not a godzilla for NYC, looks like crazy precip all around.? And Sandy setup, a recurve?  Although you say your not that impressed do you still think its possible we have a crazy storm possibly coming in 3 days?

Monday is a new moon. 

Sleepless nights ahead

GFS has snow from Monday to Thursday. Gives most of us 2-5 inches, a bit more N & W.

I got snow in my forecast from Sunday - Friday lol

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Brooklyn&state=NY&site=OKX&lat=40.6498&lon=-73.9488#.VrV7f0-gvlY