Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

A low can definitely pop with this situation. However it’d probably have to intensify pretty rapidly off Delmarva to give us significant snow as It’d most likely move quickly. New England would be more favored in that scenario because it has more time to intensify. Again there’s always a chance I’m just not avid on this threat.

heehaw453 wrote:A low can definitely pop with this situation. However it’d probably have to intensify pretty rapidly off Delmarva to give us significant snow as It’d most likely move quickly. New England would be more favored in that scenario because it has more time to intensify. Again there’s always a chance I’m just not avid on this threat.

Got it...and the 81 threat is along the northern energy boundary, correct?

Yeah. 81 is colder and has more juice from the front. Definitely could see Binghamton getting 6”. Maybe even Scranton.

NWS Albany likes chance of plowable snow in their forecast area Tuesday night which includes Dutchess and Ulster counties. Don't sleep on this as a few inches of snow is still a possibility for southern areas as well. Their thoughts below:

Tuesday night, model guidance has come into somewhat better
agreement regarding a developing area of low pressure near the New
England coast along an eastward-moving frontal boundary, and quickly
lifting northward into Maine by Wednesday morning. While this looks
to be a progressive system, there is a window of time Tuesday night
where low-mid level frontogenesis looks to be maximized over our
region, which could lead to enhanced precipitation/snowfall rates.
Thermal profiles support snow, with increasing snowfall rates
expected as a deeper cold air mass works in overnight. Will refine
forecast as event draws nearer, but a plowable snowfall appears
likely at this time.

NWS today has this as a primarily all rain event for the coast and maybe an inch on the front side and 1 or 2 on the backside for me in the LHV.Dry and very cold follows this event.That burns January.The pattern continues.

Moisture here=warmer temps=rain
Moisture not here=colder temps=no snow

Doc, is that what you see as the pattern?

Last night's euro, the outlier

dkodgis wrote:Moisture here=warmer temps=rain
Moisture not here=colder temps=no snow

Doc, is that what you see as the pattern?

BINGO Damian.It's set in stone for the last two months and I hope it breaks soon.Everything cutting too far west storm wise.We are doing a little better than the coastal plain but so far a terrible winter.

dkodgis wrote:Moisture here=warmer temps=rain
Moisture not here=colder temps=no snow

Doc, is that what you see as the pattern?

ha ha, Ray Charles sees that as the pattern.

The atmosphere has been absurdly laughable in it's intractability. It is literally toying with us.

If you live in the northeast and love the snow, the atmosphere be like:

NAM is a total bust, GFS not much better. I guess the Euro is still trying to give some hope. Right now I’m feeling some Tuesday afternoon or evening rain showers ending as snow showers that coat the ground (maybe an inch) as everything freezes up before Wednesday morning.
Thank you, Next.

Yup, seems as if the pattern continues. 30th looks like rain. Then it gets cold and then within the next week we get too warm again for some more rain or mixed precip.

Irish wrote:Yup, seems as if the pattern continues. 30th looks like rain. Then it gets cold and then within the next week we get too warm again for some more rain or mixed precip.

I am pretty confident that at least the coastal plain will have a grand total of 7 inches IMBTY which would probably be one of the or the lowest snowfalls ever and happened in November. I heard after 30th next chance isnt for 10+ days pushing us well into Feb and I do not thing March will be our month I am thinking it will be spring early this year, just wow, unbelievable.

12Z Euro Dynamic ratio trying to spit out 6+ for my area. No way I’m buying that but I do think 2-4” NW of 95 is possible.

12z GFS



12z EURO



I do not have time at the moment to put out an update, but it does look like those N&W of NYC will see some snow this week.

The maps show me, where the center of the known universe is ... NW Orange County...to be about 8 inches. I like it. CP, what are you waiting for? Get the groundhog out, do The Ode, and lock this in. Doc, what do you say? You know how to pick 'em.

Looks like Frank took down the 5% chance for even this weeks storm. No hope. Can we at least put a 1% chance.

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a frontal system, without a secondary low forming along it, produce more than an inch or two of snow east of central PA. I’m not expecting this system to be the first.

One thing I continue to notice on gfs is each successive run is colder at mid levels and surface. The snow amounts will depend on that as well as any weak waves forming on it. That certainly could increase precipitation.

Billg I’m with you on being skeptical for now.

Okay out most of teh day at my friend Mom service and repass.
What is the gloom and doom by some of you - for gods sake this storm is a HECS compared to what we've had so far and its a start.
GFS trend - to see this model trend like this is GREAT - see belows map, last week it was going the opposite!! and it is more line with the EURO - now for coast adn IMBY I really dont care honestly but that it will snow in the region for us majority wise here and if you pick up 1" we'll it better than nuttin"! This has a plow able storm written all over it for a majority of this board - heck I may wind up with 1" but I really dont care at this point in NE NJ - looks like 2"-4" for many here and more in the N&W by about 25-30 mile outside of NYC.
less that 48 hours for this happen so good shape and trend.

GEFS say so as well - tad warm to begin but the cold rushes in

Oh no. No way. I’m not falling for the banana in the tailpipe trick again.

dkodgis wrote:The maps show me, where the center of the known universe is ... NW Orange County...to be about 8 inches. I like it. CP, what are you waiting for? Get the groundhog out, do The Ode, and lock this in. Doc, what do you say? You know how to pick 'em.

Looks encouraging for you Damian, you are closer to Monticello where WSW are up.I'm further S and E of you so I'm not looking as good as per these maps.I might get an inch or two but you could be in line for 4 plus.good luck!

amugs wrote:Okay out most of teh day at my friend Mom service and repass.
What is the gloom and doom by some of you - for gods sake this storm is a HECS compared to what we've had so far and its a start.
GFS trend - to see this model trend like this is GREAT - see belows map, last week it was going the opposite!! and it is more line with the EURO - now for coast adn IMBY I really dont care honestly but that it will snow in the region for us majority wise here and if you pick up 1" we'll it better than nuttin"! This has a plow able storm written all over it for a majority of this board - heck I may wind up with 1" but I really dont care at this point in NE NJ - looks like 2"-4" for many here and more in the N&W by about 25-30 mile outside of NYC.
less that 48 hours for this happen so good shape and trend.

Hmm, mugs, lately I haven't been able to see your maps....

Sorry folks - dont know why - I upload from the site or save an image and then upload.
DOC - you are good for 2-4"

amugs wrote:Sorry folks - dont know why - I upload from the site or save an image and then upload.
DOC - you are good for 2-4"

OK Mugsy sounds good bring it home Buddy!!!!