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Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:00 pm

If the GFS is right this is an inch or two at best. A cold front alone in January won’t cut it. But if the NAM is right and a Low will be sitting over Delmarva Tuesday night with the 850 line well off the coast, I think things could be interesting.

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Post by SENJsnowman Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:04 pm

I totally follow that Bill, well both posts, but that first one was awesome...thank you. very helpful

HeeHaw, are you thinking the 81 corridor gets snow from the northern boundary front, but that the 95 misses out b/c the southern stream coastal never comes together?

Or cutter? (I'm thinking it's this one  ^^)


Last edited by SENJsnowman on Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:11 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:10 pm

A low can definitely pop with this situation. However it’d probably have to intensify pretty rapidly off Delmarva to give us significant snow as It’d most likely move quickly. New England would be more favored in that scenario because it has more time to intensify. Again there’s always a chance I’m just not avid on this threat.

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Post by SENJsnowman Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:13 pm

heehaw453 wrote:A low can definitely pop with this situation. However it’d probably have to intensify pretty rapidly off Delmarva to give us significant snow as It’d most likely move quickly. New England would be more favored in that scenario because it has more time to intensify. Again there’s always a chance I’m just not avid on this threat.

Got it...and the 81 threat is along the northern energy boundary, correct?

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:18 pm

Yeah. 81 is colder and has more juice from the front. Definitely could see Binghamton getting 6”. Maybe even Scranton.

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Post by hyde345 Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:54 pm

NWS Albany likes chance of plowable snow in their forecast area Tuesday night which includes Dutchess and Ulster counties. Don't sleep on this as a few inches of snow is still a possibility for southern areas as well. Their thoughts below:

Tuesday night, model guidance has come into somewhat better
agreement regarding a developing area of low pressure near the New
England coast along an eastward-moving frontal boundary, and quickly
lifting northward into Maine by Wednesday morning. While this looks
to be a progressive system, there is a window of time Tuesday night
where low-mid level frontogenesis looks to be maximized over our
region, which could lead to enhanced precipitation/snowfall rates.
Thermal profiles support snow, with increasing snowfall rates
expected as a deeper cold air mass works in overnight. Will refine
forecast as event draws nearer, but a plowable snowfall appears
likely at this time.
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Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 27, 2019 5:47 am

NWS today has this as a primarily all rain event for the coast and maybe an inch on the front side and 1 or 2 on the backside for me in the LHV.Dry and very cold follows this event.That burns January.The pattern continues.
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Post by dkodgis Sun Jan 27, 2019 7:41 am

Moisture here=warmer temps=rain
Moisture not here=colder temps=no snow

Doc, is that what you see as the pattern?
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jan 27, 2019 7:51 am

Last night's euro, the outlier

Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front - Page 3 Ecmwf_10

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
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Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 27, 2019 7:53 am

dkodgis wrote:Moisture here=warmer temps=rain
Moisture not here=colder temps=no snow

Doc, is that what you see as the pattern?

BINGO Damian.It's set in stone for the last two months and I hope it breaks soon.Everything cutting too far west storm wise.We are doing a little better than the coastal plain but so far a terrible winter.
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Post by SENJsnowman Sun Jan 27, 2019 8:07 am

dkodgis wrote:Moisture here=warmer temps=rain
Moisture not here=colder temps=no snow

Doc, is that what you see as the pattern?

ha ha, Ray Charles sees that as the pattern.

The atmosphere has been absurdly laughable in it's intractability. It is literally toying with us.

If you live in the northeast and love the snow, the atmosphere be like:

Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front - Page 3 Ay2byf

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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 27, 2019 8:43 am

NAM is a total bust, GFS not much better. I guess the Euro is still trying to give some hope. Right now I’m feeling some Tuesday afternoon or evening rain showers ending as snow showers that coat the ground (maybe an inch) as everything freezes up before Wednesday morning.
Thank you, Next.
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Post by Irish Sun Jan 27, 2019 8:46 am

Yup, seems as if the pattern continues. 30th looks like rain. Then it gets cold and then within the next week we get too warm again for some more rain or mixed precip.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 27, 2019 12:24 pm

Irish wrote:Yup, seems as if the pattern continues. 30th looks like rain. Then it gets cold and then within the next week we get too warm again for some more rain or mixed precip.
I am pretty confident that at least the coastal plain will have a grand total of 7 inches IMBTY which would probably be one of the or the lowest snowfalls ever and happened in November. I heard after 30th next chance isnt for 10+ days pushing us well into Feb and I do not thing March will be our month I am thinking it will be spring early this year, just wow, unbelievable.
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 27, 2019 1:22 pm

12Z Euro Dynamic ratio trying to spit out 6+ for my area. No way I’m buying that but I do think 2-4” NW of 95 is possible.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 27, 2019 1:57 pm

12z GFS

Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front - Page 3 51474548_10215983779839841_8537387445249900544_o.jpg?_nc_cat=102&_nc_ht=scontent-lga3-1

12z EURO

Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front - Page 3 50786125_2076871779057676_6418411174525665280_n.jpg?_nc_cat=102&_nc_ht=scontent-lga3-1

I do not have time at the moment to put out an update, but it does look like those N&W of NYC will see some snow this week.

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Post by dkodgis Sun Jan 27, 2019 2:58 pm

The maps show me, where the center of the known universe is ... NW Orange County...to be about 8 inches. I like it. CP, what are you waiting for? Get the groundhog out, do The Ode, and lock this in. Doc, what do you say? You know how to pick 'em.
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Post by Fededle22 Sun Jan 27, 2019 4:29 pm

Looks like Frank took down the 5% chance for even this weeks storm. No hope. Can we at least put a 1% chance.
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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 27, 2019 4:44 pm

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a frontal system, without a secondary low forming along it, produce more than an inch or two of snow east of central PA. I’m not expecting this system to be the first.
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 27, 2019 4:56 pm

One thing I continue to notice on gfs is each successive run is colder at mid levels and surface. The snow amounts will depend on that as well as any weak waves forming on it. That certainly could increase precipitation.

Billg I’m with you on being skeptical for now.

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 27, 2019 6:02 pm

Okay out most of teh day at my friend Mom service and repass.
What is the gloom and doom by some of you - for gods sake this storm is a HECS compared to what we've had so far and its a start.
GFS trend - to see this model trend like this is GREAT - see belows map, last week it was going the opposite!! and it is more line with the EURO - now for coast adn IMBY I really dont care honestly but that it will snow in the region for us majority wise here and if you pick up 1" we'll it better than nuttin"! This has a plow able storm written all over it for a majority of this board - heck I may wind up with 1" but I really dont care at this point in NE NJ - looks like 2"-4" for many here and more in the N&W by about 25-30 mile outside of NYC.
less that 48 hours for this happen so good shape and trend.
Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front - Page 3 1831242178_gfs_asnow_neus_fh60_trend(1).thumb.gif.436f095a1ada4b5fee69dbcf031151b7

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 27, 2019 6:05 pm

GEFS say so as well - tad warm to begin Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front - Page 3 5c4e381b50b04.thumb.png.8819d9a8224619543461802ff45dd8b6but the cold rushes in


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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 27, 2019 6:39 pm

Oh no. No way. I’m not falling for the banana in the tailpipe trick again. Laughing
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Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 27, 2019 6:42 pm

dkodgis wrote:The maps show me, where the center of the known universe is ... NW Orange County...to be about 8 inches. I like it. CP, what are you waiting for? Get the groundhog out, do The Ode, and lock this in. Doc, what do you say? You know how to pick 'em.

Looks encouraging for you Damian, you are closer to Monticello where WSW are up.I'm further S and E of you so I'm not looking as good as per these maps.I might get an inch or two but you could be in line for 4 plus.good luck!
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jan 27, 2019 7:31 pm

amugs wrote:Okay out most of teh day at my friend Mom service and repass.
What is the gloom and doom by some of you - for gods sake this storm is a HECS compared to what we've had so far and its a start.
GFS trend - to see this model trend like this is GREAT - see belows map, last week it was going the opposite!! and it is more line with the EURO - now for coast adn IMBY I really dont care honestly but that it will snow in the region for us majority wise here and if you pick up 1" we'll it better than nuttin"! This has a plow able storm written all over it for a majority of this board - heck I may wind up with 1" but I really dont care at this point in NE NJ - looks like 2"-4" for many here and more in the N&W by about 25-30 mile outside of NYC.
less that 48 hours for this happen so good shape and trend.
Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front - Page 3 1831242178_gfs_asnow_neus_fh60_trend(1).thumb.gif.436f095a1ada4b5fee69dbcf031151b7

Hmm, mugs, lately I haven't been able to see your maps....

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 27, 2019 7:59 pm

Sorry folks - dont know why - I upload from the site or save an image and then upload.
DOC - you are good for 2-4"

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Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 27, 2019 8:04 pm

amugs wrote:Sorry folks - dont know why - I upload from the site or save an image and then upload.
DOC - you are good for 2-4"

OK Mugsy sounds good bring it home Buddy!!!!
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