Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

by **heehaw453** Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:10 pm

A low can definitely pop with this situation. However it’d probably have to intensify pretty rapidly off Delmarva to give us significant snow as It’d most likely move quickly. New England would be more favored in that scenario because it has more time to intensify. Again there’s always a chance I’m just not avid on this threat.

by **SENJsnowman** Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:13 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:A low can definitely pop with this situation. However it’d probably have to intensify pretty rapidly off Delmarva to give us significant snow as It’d most likely move quickly. New England would be more favored in that scenario because it has more time to intensify. Again there’s always a chance I’m just not avid on this threat.

Got it...and the 81 threat is along the northern energy boundary, correct?

by **heehaw453** Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:18 pm

Yeah. 81 is colder and has more juice from the front. Definitely could see Binghamton getting 6”. Maybe even Scranton.

by **hyde345** Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:54 pm

NWS Albany likes chance of plowable snow in their forecast area Tuesday night which includes Dutchess and Ulster counties. Don't sleep on this as a few inches of snow is still a possibility for southern areas as well. Their thoughts below:

Tuesday night, model guidance has come into somewhat better
agreement regarding a developing area of low pressure near the New
England coast along an eastward-moving frontal boundary, and quickly
lifting northward into Maine by Wednesday morning. While this looks
to be a progressive system, there is a window of time Tuesday night
where low-mid level frontogenesis looks to be maximized over our
region, which could lead to enhanced precipitation/snowfall rates.
Thermal profiles support snow, with increasing snowfall rates
expected as a deeper cold air mass works in overnight. Will refine
forecast as event draws nearer, but a plowable snowfall appears
likely at this time.

by **docstox12** Sun Jan 27, 2019 5:47 am

NWS today has this as a primarily all rain event for the coast and maybe an inch on the front side and 1 or 2 on the backside for me in the LHV.Dry and very cold follows this event.That burns January.The pattern continues.

by **dkodgis** Sun Jan 27, 2019 7:41 am

Moisture here=warmer temps=rain
Moisture not here=colder temps=no snow

Doc, is that what you see as the pattern?

by **Dunnzoo** Sun Jan 27, 2019 7:51 am

Last night's euro, the outlier

Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front - Page 3 Ecmwf_10

by **docstox12** Sun Jan 27, 2019 7:53 am

@dkodgis wrote:Moisture here=warmer temps=rain
Moisture not here=colder temps=no snow

Doc, is that what you see as the pattern?

BINGO Damian.It's set in stone for the last two months and I hope it breaks soon.Everything cutting too far west storm wise.We are doing a little better than the coastal plain but so far a terrible winter.

by **SENJsnowman** Sun Jan 27, 2019 8:07 am

@dkodgis wrote:Moisture here=warmer temps=rain
Moisture not here=colder temps=no snow

Doc, is that what you see as the pattern?

ha ha, Ray Charles sees that as the pattern.

The atmosphere has been absurdly laughable in it's intractability. It is literally toying with us.

If you live in the northeast and love the snow, the atmosphere be like:

Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front - Page 3 Ay2byf

Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front - Page 3 Ay2byf

by **billg315** Sun Jan 27, 2019 8:43 am

NAM is a total bust, GFS not much better. I guess the Euro is still trying to give some hope. Right now I’m feeling some Tuesday afternoon or evening rain showers ending as snow showers that coat the ground (maybe an inch) as everything freezes up before Wednesday morning.
Thank you, Next.

by Irish Sun Jan 27, 2019 8:46 am

Yup, seems as if the pattern continues. 30th looks like rain. Then it gets cold and then within the next week we get too warm again for some more rain or mixed precip.

by **jmanley32** Sun Jan 27, 2019 12:24 pm

@Irish wrote:Yup, seems as if the pattern continues. 30th looks like rain. Then it gets cold and then within the next week we get too warm again for some more rain or mixed precip.

I am pretty confident that at least the coastal plain will have a grand total of 7 inches IMBTY which would probably be one of the or the lowest snowfalls ever and happened in November. I heard after 30th next chance isnt for 10+ days pushing us well into Feb and I do not thing March will be our month I am thinking it will be spring early this year, just wow, unbelievable.

by **heehaw453** Sun Jan 27, 2019 1:22 pm

12Z Euro Dynamic ratio trying to spit out 6+ for my area. No way I’m buying that but I do think 2-4” NW of 95 is possible.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 27, 2019 1:57 pm

12z GFS

Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front - Page 3 51474548_10215983779839841_8537387445249900544_o.jpg?_nc_cat=102&_nc_ht=scontent-lga3-1

12z EURO

Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front - Page 3 50786125_2076871779057676_6418411174525665280_n.jpg?_nc_cat=102&_nc_ht=scontent-lga3-1

I do not have time at the moment to put out an update, but it does look like those N&W of NYC will see some snow this week.

by **dkodgis** Sun Jan 27, 2019 2:58 pm

The maps show me, where the center of the known universe is ... NW Orange County...to be about 8 inches. I like it. CP, what are you waiting for? Get the groundhog out, do The Ode, and lock this in. Doc, what do you say? You know how to pick 'em.

by Fededle22 Sun Jan 27, 2019 4:29 pm

Looks like Frank took down the 5% chance for even this weeks storm. No hope. Can we at least put a 1% chance.

by **billg315** Sun Jan 27, 2019 4:44 pm

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a frontal system, without a secondary low forming along it, produce more than an inch or two of snow east of central PA. I’m not expecting this system to be the first.

by **heehaw453** Sun Jan 27, 2019 4:56 pm

One thing I continue to notice on gfs is each successive run is colder at mid levels and surface. The snow amounts will depend on that as well as any weak waves forming on it. That certainly could increase precipitation.

Billg I’m with you on being skeptical for now.

by **amugs** Sun Jan 27, 2019 6:02 pm

Okay out most of teh day at my friend Mom service and repass.
What is the gloom and doom by some of you - for gods sake this storm is a HECS compared to what we've had so far and its a start.
GFS trend - to see this model trend like this is GREAT - see belows map, last week it was going the opposite!! and it is more line with the EURO - now for coast adn IMBY I really dont care honestly but that it will snow in the region for us majority wise here and if you pick up 1" we'll it better than nuttin"! This has a plow able storm written all over it for a majority of this board - heck I may wind up with 1" but I really dont care at this point in NE NJ - looks like 2"-4" for many here and more in the N&W by about 25-30 mile outside of NYC.
less that 48 hours for this happen so good shape and trend.

by **amugs** Sun Jan 27, 2019 6:05 pm

GEFS say so as well - tad warm to begin

but the cold rushes in

by **billg315** Sun Jan 27, 2019 6:39 pm

Oh no. No way. I’m not falling for the banana in the tailpipe trick again. Laughing

by **docstox12** Sun Jan 27, 2019 6:42 pm

@dkodgis wrote:The maps show me, where the center of the known universe is ... NW Orange County...to be about 8 inches. I like it. CP, what are you waiting for? Get the groundhog out, do The Ode, and lock this in. Doc, what do you say? You know how to pick 'em.

Looks encouraging for you Damian, you are closer to Monticello where WSW are up.I'm further S and E of you so I'm not looking as good as per these maps.I might get an inch or two but you could be in line for 4 plus.good luck!

by **Dunnzoo** Sun Jan 27, 2019 7:31 pm

@amugs wrote:Okay out most of teh day at my friend Mom service and repass.
What is the gloom and doom by some of you - for gods sake this storm is a HECS compared to what we've had so far and its a start.
GFS trend - to see this model trend like this is GREAT - see belows map, last week it was going the opposite!! and it is more line with the EURO - now for coast adn IMBY I really dont care honestly but that it will snow in the region for us majority wise here and if you pick up 1" we'll it better than nuttin"! This has a plow able storm written all over it for a majority of this board - heck I may wind up with 1" but I really dont care at this point in NE NJ - looks like 2"-4" for many here and more in the N&W by about 25-30 mile outside of NYC.
less that 48 hours for this happen so good shape and trend.

Hmm, mugs, lately I haven't been able to see your maps....

by **amugs** Sun Jan 27, 2019 7:59 pm

Sorry folks - dont know why - I upload from the site or save an image and then upload.
DOC - you are good for 2-4"

by **docstox12** Sun Jan 27, 2019 8:04 pm

@amugs wrote:Sorry folks - dont know why - I upload from the site or save an image and then upload.
DOC - you are good for 2-4"

OK Mugsy sounds good bring it home Buddy!!!!

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