Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

@Dunnzoo wrote:

@amugs wrote:Okay out most of teh day at my friend Mom service and repass.
What is the gloom and doom by some of you - for gods sake this storm is a HECS compared to what we've had so far and its a start.
GFS trend - to see this model trend like this is GREAT - see belows map, last week it was going the opposite!! and it is more line with the EURO - now for coast adn IMBY I really dont care honestly but that it will snow in the region for us majority wise here and if you pick up 1" we'll it better than nuttin"! This has a plow able storm written all over it for a majority of this board - heck I may wind up with 1" but I really dont care at this point in NE NJ - looks like 2"-4" for many here and more in the N&W by about 25-30 mile outside of NYC.
less that 48 hours for this happen so good shape and trend.

Hmm, mugs, lately I haven't been able to see your maps....

me either dunzoo!

The GFS beat out the other models in the handling of the southern stream energy. Models last week had the southern stream energy digging into the Gulf coast, allowing it to form a coastal low along the frontal passage. As seen above, the southern stream energy is nowhere near as potent as the EURO once had it. Instead, its a piece of energy sliding across the area ahead of the huge PV lobe.

Rain will transition to snow along the coast - ENJ, NYC and LI. A trace to 1" is possible. Possibly not even a trace in some parts of Long Island.

Rain will transition to snow for CNJ, north-central NJ, NE NJ a little earlier. These areas could see 1-3" of snow, while those just to their N&W likely 2-4".

Jackpot areas will be EPA, NEPA, NW NJ, and SE NY (Orange County) where 4"+ is possible.

Overall, not the type of storm I was hoping for but it does not shock me it will end this way. I mentioned in my write-up the only way we would see the coastal storm was if EURO/CMC were right in handling the southern stream energy. They were not. The pattern is too progressive and the GFS normally wins in progressive patterns.

Expecting 2-4 inches with this one by me. North and west of me WSW are posted with 6 to as much as 12 expected. Damn.

Not expecting much from this hyde.

@jimv45 wrote:Not expecting much from this hyde.

You should get an inch or 2.

this will be north and west of you to! Just a bad winter, but I will take anything right now.

GFS trending stronger with this snow for NNJ - red flag or mirage??

3K NAM - look ta the cut off it like a 10 mile difference between 3 - 4" and 1" my god - this is crazy

Yes, there is a crazy cut-off. But EPA/NEPA/NWNJ seem to be the bullseye.

The air is pretty cold out ahead of this system as is the ground.  Very difficult for models to get that precise even at this range.  I wouldn't be shocked to see that cutoff line much closer to the 95.

But then again we are dealing with the winter that never was, so even being in EPA my expectations are lowered.  Maybe just maybe though...

@amugs wrote:3K NAM - look ta the cut off it like a 10 mile difference between 3 - 4" and 1" my god - this is crazy

FV3 agrees with this.

HRRR says (almost) no snow for NJ. Still a bit out of its range though.

@jimv45 wrote:this will be north and west of you to!  Just a bad winter, but I will take anything right now.

The heaviest snow will be north and west for sure but I am still expecting 2-4 by Wednesday morning and 12z runs look pretty good.

yea hyde this might be a 2-4 3-6 for Dutchess, but the way this winter has gone expecting very little for us with more north and west.

Hey Hyde, slightly off topic but show is that Zep pic you got up on your Avatar?

Mt Holly saves winter

Very aggressive IMO.  As long as it's mostly snow, then it's doable.

Wwa for 2 to 5in.

Looks like west of the Hudson will do well up here 3-6. Cp Doc and others looks good. Hyde I don't think we see more then 1-3 if that.

@mako460 wrote:Hey Hyde, slightly off topic but show is that Zep pic you got up on your Avatar?

It was in 1973 at Kezar stadium in San Francisco. About 50,000 people were there, unfortunately I wasn't one of them. Love Zeppelin and just liked the sea of humanity in this pic.

@jimv45 wrote:yea hyde this might be a 2-4 3-6 for Dutchess, but the way this winter has gone expecting very little for us with more north and west.

I'm fully expecting to get 2-4 and will gladly take it.

NYC proper and east not much, more N& W it's a plow able storm.
Squalls ON Wednesday could be whiteout type conditions in some areas and lay .5 to 2" possibly. Don't discount this Wedneaday.

@amugs wrote:NYC proper and east not much, more N& W it's a plow able storm.
Squalls ON Wednesday could be whiteout type conditions in some areas and lay .5 to 2" possibly. Don't discount this Wedneaday.

I agree 100%. Anyone that gets into a squall is most likely going to experience blizzard conditions. Very dangerous if driving and can come up suddenly.

Is that a more area wide squall threat, or also n/w only?

@SENJsnowman wrote:Is that a more area wide squall threat, or also n/w only?

I think this is area wide threat.