Tropical Storm Isaias

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:

why does it cut off so much to the east of NJ? i would think that red would be into nyc too, but thats nuts. oh only through 5pm, does NY have a map like that?

Upton just hasn’t updated their product yet (you can see clearly the CWA ‘border’ lol). They will if models hold.

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:

why does it cut off so much to the east of NJ? i would think that red would be into nyc too, but thats nuts. oh only through 5pm, does NY have a map like that?

Upton just hasn’t updated their product yet (you can see clearly the CWA ‘border’ lol). They will if models hold.

Does upton have this same map soul? I cannot find it people are asking about CT. you can also see that south of delaware didnt update, cuz how are they lower than all of jersey.

Alex Staarmann pro met wrote
Cannot stress enough how severe #Isaias is likely to be for the I-95 east coast corridor. Damaging winds and flash flooding will cause significant impacts to the region. I just hope folks are taking this storm seriously, especially well inland.

Mugs where did you find that NJ wind map? I am trying to find it so i can see it updated for my area.

Hurricane Isaias has officially made landfall in Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina with sustained winds of 85 mph. Talk about a last-minute hat trick from a storm that’s struggled since its inception.

Gotta say I admire the consistency of the GFS. It hasn’t changed it’s course with respect to the track in over a day.

SoulSingMG wrote:Hurricane Isaias has officially made landfall in Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina with sustained winds of 85 mph. Talk about a last-minute hat trick from a storm that’s struggled since its inception.

Now lets see just how much he weakens, that will determine what happens up here, time is coming up quick we are still basically on schedule.

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Hurricane Isaias has officially made landfall in Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina with sustained winds of 85 mph. Talk about a last-minute hat trick from a storm that’s struggled since its inception.

Now lets see just how much he weakens, that will determine what happens up here, time is coming up quick we are still basically on schedule.

Actually, not entirely. Its interaction with the jet stream will help to enhance the winds up this way as it transitions to extra-tropical.



Also. I don’t like “them” but have much respect for Stu. Not often you see us in the “widespread outage” coloring.

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Hurricane Isaias has officially made landfall in Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina with sustained winds of 85 mph. Talk about a last-minute hat trick from a storm that’s struggled since its inception.

Now lets see just how much he weakens, that will determine what happens up here, time is coming up quick we are still basically on schedule.

Actually, not entirely. Its interaction with the jet stream will help to enhance the winds up this way as it transitions to extra-tropical.



Also. I don’t like “them” but have much respect for Stu. Not often you see us in the “widespread outage” coloring.

Wow, yes I know about the jet streak but his weakening before getting with that completely might play a part too. Yeah widespread not good, prolly go be watch transformers popping off like lightning tomorrow. Did you get a chance to get that updated NJ wind map for upton? I found something similar but it was nowhere near as high, still 70mph gusts (i think it COULD be higher) is bad enough. Sandys winds were only 70mph gusts here in my area and we got trashed. What was good about Sandy is it was fall, if we lose power for days its go be miserable no AC no fans no nothing.

Here's a NWS impact map for winds

https://www.weather.gov/okx/tropical

Wow check out this cutoff! Portions of western NJ and EPA are going to flood with 4”+ rain while majority of us may never even see an inch out of it

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php

Tornado watch up until 4pm

Crazy with al lthat rain but nada for central NJ east wow, and his windfield is tiny is it supposed to expand cuz taking a even further west track now i do not see how out to cape cod sees TS conditions.

I haven’t been able to post meaningfully because of work and family, but first and foremost I’d like to quickly say that my preliminary outlook for this storm was half and half. The bad-half was my track, as I was about 100 miles too Far East. While my ideas of a deeper trough verified, the eastward progression did not. I’ll have to go back and see why later. The good-half of my outlook was the intensity; this system pretty much remained steady-state after the initial strengthening occurred upon exiting the islands (fluctuated around a mean high-end tropical storm).

That said, I am really not seeing the reason for a lot of the excitement for these big winds up this way. I think it’s pretty much going be the rain that becomes the story with this system. Wind-wise, I don’t think it’s anything to write home about. You’re not dealing with the type/degree of baroclinicity that you need in order to generate the kinds of wind speeds some of the models are printing out. The dynamics aloft are impressive, no doubt, which is why you’re seeing all the rain across PA. But the problem is that’s largely not going to translate all the way to the surface, in my opinion, because of how the dynamics are being distributed. I think those of us along and east of the track see some 50-60 kt gusts, but no more than that. I’m on LBI, so I’ll be the first to say I was wrong, though lol

Wow im a bit nervous about the tornado threat, theres currently 7 tornado warnings south of here one already n PA!

Ray I did not realize you moved to LI

rb924119 wrote:I haven’t been able to post meaningfully because of work and family, but first and foremost I’d like to quickly say that my preliminary outlook for this storm was half and half. The bad-half was my track, as I was about 100 miles too Far East. While my ideas of a deeper trough verified, the eastward progression did not. I’ll have to go back and see why later. The good-half of my outlook was the intensity; this system pretty much remained steady-state after the initial strengthening occurred upon exiting the islands (fluctuated around a mean high-end tropical storm).

That said, I am really not seeing the reason for a lot of the excitement for these big winds up this way. I think it’s pretty much going be the rain that becomes the story with this system. Wind-wise, I don’t think it’s anything to write home about. You’re not dealing with the type/degree of baroclinicity that you need in order to generate the kinds of wind speeds some of the models are printing out. The dynamics aloft are impressive, no doubt, which is why you’re seeing all the rain across PA. But the problem is that’s largely not going to translate all the way to the surface, in my opinion, because of how the dynamics are being distributed. I think those of us along and east of the track see some 50-60 kt gusts, but no more than that. I’m on LBI, so I’ll be the first to say I was wrong, though lol

I completely agree that gusts in the 55 to 65mph range are probaby the most likely, and I think we all pretty much have debunked the Euro NAM UKMET etc. but i guess its always possible, the tornado threat seems real though, the lack of rain east of the storm though would seem to make bringing winds down much harder, do you see the wind field growing east at all or is there no warrant for TS warnings so far east into Cape cod and NE, as the field sits now no way it reaches past central eastern CT.

Frank_Wx wrote:Ray I did not realize you moved to LI

Not Long Island, Long Beach* Island, NJ haha and I’m only down here on account of the virus. My office is still closed in Fishkill, and with gyms still closed with no sign of opening I had to get out lol so I’ve been seeking refuge down here since Memorial Day, set my old weight set up in the garage......it’s been good haha

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I haven’t been able to post meaningfully because of work and family, but first and foremost I’d like to quickly say that my preliminary outlook for this storm was half and half. The bad-half was my track, as I was about 100 miles too Far East. While my ideas of a deeper trough verified, the eastward progression did not. I’ll have to go back and see why later. The good-half of my outlook was the intensity; this system pretty much remained steady-state after the initial strengthening occurred upon exiting the islands (fluctuated around a mean high-end tropical storm).

That said, I am really not seeing the reason for a lot of the excitement for these big winds up this way. I think it’s pretty much going be the rain that becomes the story with this system. Wind-wise, I don’t think it’s anything to write home about. You’re not dealing with the type/degree of baroclinicity that you need in order to generate the kinds of wind speeds some of the models are printing out. The dynamics aloft are impressive, no doubt, which is why you’re seeing all the rain across PA. But the problem is that’s largely not going to translate all the way to the surface, in my opinion, because of how the dynamics are being distributed. I think those of us along and east of the track see some 50-60 kt gusts, but no more than that. I’m on LBI, so I’ll be the first to say I was wrong, though lol

I completely agree that gusts in the 55 to 65mph range are probaby the most likely, and I think we all pretty much have debunked the Euro NAM UKMET etc. but i guess its always possible, the tornado threat seems real though, the lack of rain east of the storm though would seem to make bringing winds down much harder, do you see the wind field growing east at all or is there no warrant for TS warnings so far east into Cape cod and NE, as the field sits now no way it reaches past central eastern CT.

No, I don’t think it grows. It’s going to decrease in intensity and elongate along the frontal structure. as it lifts northward. But remember, they changed the conventions for tropical storm/hurricane advisory criteria........it no longer matters how the storm is classified in order to issue those, so that’s why they go far along the coast.

Wel ray the TS warning still has me gusting to 70-75mph at some pt today, so we will see. To me 70mph is pretty intense, and certainly enough to cause a lot of issues here as we have a lot of full trees. Couled with the tornado threat which im guessing comes mainly fro mthat arcing band off the water should make for a interesting day.

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I haven’t been able to post meaningfully because of work and family, but first and foremost I’d like to quickly say that my preliminary outlook for this storm was half and half. The bad-half was my track, as I was about 100 miles too Far East. While my ideas of a deeper trough verified, the eastward progression did not. I’ll have to go back and see why later. The good-half of my outlook was the intensity; this system pretty much remained steady-state after the initial strengthening occurred upon exiting the islands (fluctuated around a mean high-end tropical storm).

That said, I am really not seeing the reason for a lot of the excitement for these big winds up this way. I think it’s pretty much going be the rain that becomes the story with this system. Wind-wise, I don’t think it’s anything to write home about. You’re not dealing with the type/degree of baroclinicity that you need in order to generate the kinds of wind speeds some of the models are printing out. The dynamics aloft are impressive, no doubt, which is why you’re seeing all the rain across PA. But the problem is that’s largely not going to translate all the way to the surface, in my opinion, because of how the dynamics are being distributed. I think those of us along and east of the track see some 50-60 kt gusts, but no more than that. I’m on LBI, so I’ll be the first to say I was wrong, though lol

I completely agree that gusts in the 55 to 65mph range are probaby the most likely, and I think we all pretty much have debunked the Euro NAM UKMET etc. but i guess its always possible, the tornado threat seems real though, the lack of rain east of the storm though would seem to make bringing winds down much harder, do you see the wind field growing east at all or is there no warrant for TS warnings so far east into Cape cod and NE, as the field sits now no way it reaches past central eastern CT.

No, I don’t think it grows. It’s going to decrease in intensity and elongate along the frontal structure. as it lifts northward. But remember, they changed the conventions for tropical storm/hurricane advisory criteria........it no longer matters how the storm is classified in order to issue those, so that’s why they go far along the coast.

So it doesnt grow but the wind coverage area will increae whats the difference, lol sorry yes since sandy they changed it if impacts are the same they put up TS issuances.

8am still a 70mph TS trucking at 33mph wow, he really is maintaining intensity at 70mph for a long time now being inland that jet really is keeping him from weakening much.

wow im see damage video from oak island really bad houses collapsed, feet of sand into homes

Oh man!! Enhanced risk tornados I havent seen that now in 10%!!

This storm is moving double-time now. At this speed I wouldn’t be surprised if some areas of NJ are in sunshine before the end of the afternoon. I think the prolonged heavy rain seems locked over eastern PA/western NJ and the rest of the area sees some bands and storms off and on with one main area of heavy rain moving through between noon and 3 pm. The winds may still be a factor, but as Frank said, a good chunk of NJ will see only moderate rainfall totals.

Up here in northern Orange just a mile from Sullivan, light rain since 3 ish but steady and still no wind. I don’t need “exciting” so good. In fact right now at almost 9 am, the rain has stopped. I expect it to get worse but it is an under the covers and a Netflix day so far