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February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:07 am

The other thread is close to exceeding its 30-page count. Let's continue the discussions here.

My preliminary thoughts:

1. No snow map just yet. There are still very important parts to this forecast that need to be ironed out. It will determine if the heaviest axis of snows will be toward NW or SE sections of this area. This also has implications to the temps along the shore and whether or not we're dealing with any type of dry slotting for a period of time.

2. The mid and upper levels of the atmosphere suggest we're staring down quite a monster. The epic snow amounts being shown on some of these models may not be far off. That is because of the slow movement and intense CCB this storm will possesses. Ratios will be 10:1 for most, but those under the CCB where the heaviest VV's are likely to be found may get 12:1 ratios.

3. The frigid air mass leading up to this storm has to help, right? I forgot the last time it was this cold right before a major snowstorm. That also means drier air and virga to start, but once it does finally begin snowing, it will accumulate FAST.

4. Yes there will be moments when this acts like a blizzard near the coast. Winds near 40 mph and heavy snow falling, that technically constitutes a blizzard. Is the criteria met for the NWS to issue blizzard warnings? I'm not so sure about that. At the end of the day, we're looking at an SLP around 995mb. Nice but not nearly as strong as other historic storms.

5. Tonight's 00z runs will give us clarity on pretty much everything (I hope), but we're already seeing agreement happen with some key features of this storm. It's the smaller details that make the difference of a foot or 3 inches for some people here!

Bring home the capocollo!!!!!

1st call snow map around 3-4pm today.


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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:11 am

RGEM 6z vs 12z - confluence in Maine is stronger. Can you see it?

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II 2032509628_500hv.conus(7).png.9e6ad94f8962f5b25002bd40c10df893


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:13 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Irish Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:11 am

I've never seen a storm (I really haven't been following for a long time), that no matter how much waffling has gone on with the trending, stay centered with a bullseye around CNJ like this one.

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Post by frank 638 Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:13 am

I am excited esp for us snow lovers we have not seen this much snow for a long time

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:15 am

RGEM shows a big dry slot over our area (but we still get 5-10" of snow). Biggests totals near DC then New England.

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II Snku_acc.us_ma

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:16 am

That's 12z 3km nam is nuts at HR 60 which is 00z Tues and we all have near a foot with quite a ways to go thpugh the heaviest bands came through but extrapolated out some would see 20 maybe more. 3km nam is not in good range yet which is kinda crazy this is so long duration we will be using the models to see how it ends when it's already snowing lol
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:17 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:RGEM shows a big dry slot over our area (but we still get 5-10" of snow). Biggests totals near DC then New England.

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II Snku_acc.us_ma
my god 40 inches in dc area!!! Me no likey this map hoping it's on its own. It's still good but far cry from other runs of models.
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:23 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:RGEM shows a big dry slot over our area (but we still get 5-10" of snow). Biggests totals near DC then New England.

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II Snku_acc.us_ma

Goal posts may be narrowing. But consistently we see high order magnitude solutions. It just depends on the locale and what the model is seeing. Tough call ATTM.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:26 am

ICON has not wavered. Keeps showing obscene amounts over us

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II Image.png.a5d645578fc67c3325968479ffb15924

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:26 am

frank posted the snow map for 3km nam on other thread but look at this, many have 12+ and its still snowing moderate to hard in some locations, insane!!

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II Nam3km23

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II Nam3km24

and correct me if im wrong but isnt the radar map 6 hrs before the snow map? so doesnt the snow map show the previous 6 hrs? that would mean even more.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:28 am

Icon tracks H5 over SNJ and places the best vorticity directly north. This actually makes sense when you think about the tightly wound trough and 250mb jet to the north

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II Icon_z500_vort_neus_25

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:34 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:RGEM shows a big dry slot over our area (but we still get 5-10" of snow). Biggests totals near DC then New England.

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II Snku_acc.us_ma
my god 40 inches in dc area!!! Me no likey this map hoping it's on its own. It's still good but far cry from other runs of models.

Considering they haven't had a measurable snowfall in WDC for over a year for them to get three times their yearly average in one storm is highly unlikely. At least I hope it is.
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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:37 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Icon tracks H5 over SNJ and places the best vorticity directly north. This actually makes sense when you think about the tightly wound trough and 250mb jet to the north

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II Icon_z500_vort_neus_25

That’s actually not inconsistent with last NAM run either. There was a moment in the 12z NAM where the H5 appeared to be closing off over the Delmarva then it got all sloppy and elongated as you and heehaw were discussing. So the icon may be showing what the NAM will once in better range.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:42 am

Through 36, 12z GFS has lower heights due to stronger confluence vs 6z

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:47 am

Madonne

12z

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II Gfs_z500_vort_us_11

6z

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II Gfs_z500_vort_us_12


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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:48 am

GFS midday monday its barely snowing in NYC area....and DC is seeing major blitzing.
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:49 am

GFS looks completely lost to me, honestly.

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Post by Irish Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:50 am

@rb924119 wrote:GFS looks completely lost to me, honestly.

Isn't that usually the case?

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:51 am

@rb924119 wrote:GFS looks completely lost to me, honestly.
i hope so it looks like the rgem that had DC in 3 ft
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:52 am

@Irish wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:GFS looks completely lost to me, honestly.

Isn't that usually the case?

Yes lol

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:53 am

Another trend I am seeing is the primary low hanging on longer

That gives us better WAA snows, but it does develop the secondary more east than what we saw yesterday

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:54 am

@rb924119 wrote:GFS looks completely lost to me, honestly.

Funny I felt that way with the RGEM/NAM

H5 and surface not quite matching up

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:54 am

GFS has me at 5 inches....hahaha i dont buy that for a second sorry, and thats not wishcasting, not one model shows that.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:55 am

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II Image.png.ba8390f51cd6b330e0f7f1e0b2e32017

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Post by dsix85 Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:55 am

Frank- are the primary heavy snows a result of the second low? And, a more easterly track indicative of the coast potentially jackpotting in our area?

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