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February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:22 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Yeah, I’m not getting enough of the changes that I need. I’ll give it until 12z suite tomorrow before I fold officially, because I do still think there’s room to come north late in the game. But, it’s seems likely I was off over aggressive with the northward correction. But I’m pretty pleased with how the rest of the evolution is turning out. I my just looks like I was just ~100 miles too far north with it.
rb as I have told my son..it's ok to be wrong....please be wrong in this case! Very Happy
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:24 pm

PRO Model View

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 Nam_2021-01-30-18Z_051_45.532_276.124_36.064_293.286_Rain-Snow_Radar_Frontogenesis_700.png.51d2cc3867b66fe5e9b0622f4d0ef22d

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:25 pm

I think the NAM is underdoing the CCB.  I think tomorrow the meso analysis will show better surface representation.

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 Ccb10

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:26 pm

GET READY ITS ABOUT TO DROP THE THOR HAMMER !!!! WAIT FOR IT


February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 Nam_2021-01-30-18Z_054_45.532_276.124_36.064_293.286_Rain-Snow_Radar_Frontogenesis_700.png.e2eaaa5f868615d325e8a33c55b3fc8f

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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:26 pm

Interesting. 18z NAM has the heaviest snow more east based with lesser totals over central and eastern PA. This kind of makes sense with an deepening coastal that the heaviest precip would be east of PA, even with the initial over-running event.
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:27 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:I think the NAM is underdoing the CCB.  I think tomorrow the meso analysis will show better surface representation.

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 Ccb10

I've been saying this since yesterday that the fetch of RH goes back to the Bahamas but this run is pulling from Cancun for God's sake!!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:28 pm

TWC app now 12-22 inches for eastern Orange County (Highland Mills).

I believe I just set the record for highest predicted total on their app with no Winter Storm watch issued for the area.

I would guess it's coming with the 4:00 pm update but it would be funny if it didn't. Not sure what kind of game the NWS is playing with Orange County.
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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:29 pm

I had a snow map ready to go, but I may have to make some minor changes (minimal effect on the people on this forum) based on 18z NAM which has some merit (though maybe not zeroed in yet). May be a BIT too far east so not buying it completely.
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:31 pm

@billg315 wrote:Interesting. 18z NAM has the heaviest snow more east based with lesser totals over central and eastern PA. This kind of makes sense with an deepening coastal that the heaviest precip would be east of PA, even with the initial over-running event.

I would tend to doubt that surface depiction based on the comma head signature and the fetch. But the exact timing and strength of those mid-level lows is everything. CCB banding forget trying to nail that down at this range. Not gonna happen. Tomorrow NAM will probably have that nailed much better.

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:36 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:TWC app now 12-22 inches for eastern Orange County (Highland Mills).

I believe I just set the record for highest predicted total on their app with no Winter Storm watch issued for the area.

I would guess it's coming with the 4:00 pm update but it would be funny if it didn't. Not sure what kind of game the NWS is playing with Orange County.

That kind of surprises me too. Based on recent model runs you'd think enough confidence in Orange County being added to the WSW.

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Post by dsix85 Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:38 pm

I think Blizzard watches and warnings go up for the coasties at some point in the next 12-24 hours.

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:39 pm

4 AM

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_45


7AM

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_46


10 AM Tuesday Morning - STILL SNOWING!!

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_47


Last edited by amugs on Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:41 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:40 pm

@dsix85 wrote:I think Blizzard watches and warnings go up for the coasties at some point in the next 12-24 hours.

I'd say after 6Z if not 12Z tomorrow

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:44 pm

NAM has it snowing in the Metro Region for 38 -40 hours!!
9PM Sunday night to 11AM -12PM Tuesday morning

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:45 pm

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 Image.png.c5642442fa7faf974fe901fa279771df

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Post by SNOW MAN Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:48 pm

Winter Storm Watch just posted for my area.
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Post by hyde345 Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:49 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:TWC app now 12-22 inches for eastern Orange County (Highland Mills).

I believe I just set the record for highest predicted total on their app with no Winter Storm watch issued for the area.

I would guess it's coming with the 4:00 pm update but it would be funny if it didn't. Not sure what kind of game the NWS is playing with Orange County.

WSW just got issued in my area and NWS Albany is more conservative than any of the offices so you should be getting the same right about now.
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:50 pm

Good GRIEF. What a Face

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 2d362810
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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:51 pm

I've zeroed in on what I think is going to happen. Of course nobody will KNOW what is going to happen until tomorrow. My (rather amateur - but slightly better than the last one, Jman. lol) snow map is pretty much done.
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Post by dsix85 Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:57 pm

Waiting for our master to release his snow maps and maybe Roidzilla mode.

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Post by Irish Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:02 pm

Winter Storm Warning just posted for my area! It's coming smitches!!!

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Post by GreyBeard Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:08 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:TWC app now 12-22 inches for eastern Orange County (Highland Mills).

I believe I just set the record for highest predicted total on their app with no Winter Storm watch issued for the area.

I would guess it's coming with the 4:00 pm update but it would be funny if it didn't. Not sure what kind of game the NWS is playing with Orange County.


Your guess was right. Here's a stress reliever for you.

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 Screen23

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Post by SENJsnowman Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:11 pm

BillG that 18z NAM just did EXACTLY what you indicated the Euro did at 12 z. Thump/Not so heavy or long rain/Decent long lasting snow showers. Snow finished in 5-7" as near as I can tell, might translate to 4-5" net.

For sure, a SE tick since 12z. Hopefully, by virtue of expansion and not shifting. This is getting quite interesting, in fact. Look at the hook South and East down the coast of Ocean County!

12z Nam
February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 Nam110

18z Nam
February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 7 Nam_210


I'm still prepared to bolt...but, I think I'm getting that loving feelin' again...

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Post by Irish Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:14 pm

RGEM a crusher for NW folks again?

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Post by hyde345 Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:20 pm

@Irish wrote:RGEM a crusher for NW folks again?

Not really. I only get 8-9 from it. It crushes SE PA and northern Jersey.
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