February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

rb924119 wrote:Yeah, I’m not getting enough of the changes that I need. I’ll give it until 12z suite tomorrow before I fold officially, because I do still think there’s room to come north late in the game. But, it’s seems likely I was off over aggressive with the northward correction. But I’m pretty pleased with how the rest of the evolution is turning out. I my just looks like I was just ~100 miles too far north with it.

rb, if you are wrong (and I say IF because still 24 hours to go and you rarely are wrong) this will be one time for sure I'm glad you are. lol

rb924119 wrote:Yeah, I’m not getting enough of the changes that I need. I’ll give it until 12z suite tomorrow before I fold officially, because I do still think there’s room to come north late in the game. But, it’s seems likely I was off over aggressive with the northward correction. But I’m pretty pleased with how the rest of the evolution is turning out. I my just looks like I was just ~100 miles too far north with it.

rb as I have told my son..it's ok to be wrong....please be wrong in this case!

PRO Model View

I think the NAM is underdoing the CCB.  I think tomorrow the meso analysis will show better surface representation.

Interesting. 18z NAM has the heaviest snow more east based with lesser totals over central and eastern PA. This kind of makes sense with an deepening coastal that the heaviest precip would be east of PA, even with the initial over-running event.

heehaw453 wrote:I think the NAM is underdoing the CCB.  I think tomorrow the meso analysis will show better surface representation.

I've been saying this since yesterday that the fetch of RH goes back to the Bahamas but this run is pulling from Cancun for God's sake!!

TWC app now 12-22 inches for eastern Orange County (Highland Mills).

I believe I just set the record for highest predicted total on their app with no Winter Storm watch issued for the area.

I would guess it's coming with the 4:00 pm update but it would be funny if it didn't. Not sure what kind of game the NWS is playing with Orange County.

I had a snow map ready to go, but I may have to make some minor changes (minimal effect on the people on this forum) based on 18z NAM which has some merit (though maybe not zeroed in yet). May be a BIT too far east so not buying it completely.

billg315 wrote:Interesting. 18z NAM has the heaviest snow more east based with lesser totals over central and eastern PA. This kind of makes sense with an deepening coastal that the heaviest precip would be east of PA, even with the initial over-running event.

I would tend to doubt that surface depiction based on the comma head signature and the fetch. But the exact timing and strength of those mid-level lows is everything. CCB banding forget trying to nail that down at this range. Not gonna happen. Tomorrow NAM will probably have that nailed much better.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:TWC app now 12-22 inches for eastern Orange County (Highland Mills).

I believe I just set the record for highest predicted total on their app with no Winter Storm watch issued for the area.

I would guess it's coming with the 4:00 pm update but it would be funny if it didn't. Not sure what kind of game the NWS is playing with Orange County.

That kind of surprises me too. Based on recent model runs you'd think enough confidence in Orange County being added to the WSW.

I think Blizzard watches and warnings go up for the coasties at some point in the next 12-24 hours.

4 AM




7AM




10 AM Tuesday Morning - STILL SNOWING!!

dsix85 wrote:I think Blizzard watches and warnings go up for the coasties at some point in the next 12-24 hours.

I'd say after 6Z if not 12Z tomorrow

NAM has it snowing in the Metro Region for 38 -40 hours!!
9PM Sunday night to 11AM -12PM Tuesday morning

Winter Storm Watch just posted for my area.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:TWC app now 12-22 inches for eastern Orange County (Highland Mills).

I believe I just set the record for highest predicted total on their app with no Winter Storm watch issued for the area.

I would guess it's coming with the 4:00 pm update but it would be funny if it didn't. Not sure what kind of game the NWS is playing with Orange County.

WSW just got issued in my area and NWS Albany is more conservative than any of the offices so you should be getting the same right about now.

Good GRIEF.

I've zeroed in on what I think is going to happen. Of course nobody will KNOW what is going to happen until tomorrow. My (rather amateur - but slightly better than the last one, Jman. lol) snow map is pretty much done.

Waiting for our master to release his snow maps and maybe Roidzilla mode.

Winter Storm Warning just posted for my area! It's coming smitches!!!

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:TWC app now 12-22 inches for eastern Orange County (Highland Mills).

I believe I just set the record for highest predicted total on their app with no Winter Storm watch issued for the area.

I would guess it's coming with the 4:00 pm update but it would be funny if it didn't. Not sure what kind of game the NWS is playing with Orange County.

Your guess was right. Here's a stress reliever for you.

BillG that 18z NAM just did EXACTLY what you indicated the Euro did at 12 z. Thump/Not so heavy or long rain/Decent long lasting snow showers. Snow finished in 5-7" as near as I can tell, might translate to 4-5" net.

For sure, a SE tick since 12z. Hopefully, by virtue of expansion and not shifting. This is getting quite interesting, in fact. Look at the hook South and East down the coast of Ocean County!

12z Nam


18z Nam



I'm still prepared to bolt...but, I think I'm getting that loving feelin' again...

RGEM a crusher for NW folks again?

Irish wrote:RGEM a crusher for NW folks again?

Not really. I only get 8-9 from it. It crushes SE PA and northern Jersey.