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February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:56 am

GFS just has that low spinning and deepening off the coast. Like an annoying houseguest that just won't leave. Except in this case it's like a very entertaining and fun houseguest that just won't leave. lol
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:57 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 2 Image.png.ba8390f51cd6b330e0f7f1e0b2e32017
ok thats a better view 6-12, TT is hard to tell snow amounts. still think that is low, i dont see this being a mothrazilla for some in nyc area, south jersey back in the heart.


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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:57 am

Heehaw: The H5 placement on the GFS is about where you would want it correct? Looks to take shape over Ocean City MD then move to just over and east of SNJ.
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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:58 am

Not liking that dryslot over the Lehigh Valley in PA. too close for comfort.
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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:59 am

NAM with a death band running the entire length of Long Island Monday afternoon.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:01 am

If 6-10 inches falls and even less so I see no reason to cancel my trip to CT sunday monday and leaving tuesday morning. that is easily handled by plows at that slow a clip, there will be a part of the storm that is heavy but that looks to be monday where ill be inside, but if I am in CT looks like I would be missing out on the biggest snows, they do not appear to get nearly as much. decisions decisions (based on snow, I have issues lol)
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:08 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 2 Image.png.ba8390f51cd6b330e0f7f1e0b2e32017

As Irish said earlier, CNJ away from the coast is the only area that has stayed consistently in or near the jackpot from run to run, whether everything moves north or south. Probably a good spot to be right now.
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Post by algae888 Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:09 am

The new gf S  Jackpot central new jersey.  With over With over 2'. 12 to 24"  From  Southern Pennsylvania into ne new jersy, city and Long Island
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Post by crippo84 Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:11 am

@algae888 wrote:The newThe new gf S  Jackpot central new jersey.  With over With over 2'. 12 to 24"  From  Southern Pennsylvania into ne new jersy, city and Long Island

Haha can we get a translate button?
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Post by algae888 Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:12 am

@crippo84 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:The newThe new gf S  Jackpot central new jersey.  With over With over 2'. 12 to 24"  From  Southern Pennsylvania into ne new jersy, city and Long Island

Haha can we get a translate button?
Fixed.
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Post by algae888 Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:15 am

Actually it spits out 30" over western Suffolk ccounty. Wow
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:16 am

@algae888 wrote:The new gf S  Jackpot central new jersey.  With over With over 2'. 12 to 24"  From  Southern Pennsylvania into ne new jersy, city and Long Island
snow map? Where do you find this new GFS? TT doesnt seem to have it.
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Post by algae888 Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:19 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:The new gf S  Jackpot central new jersey.  With over With over 2'. 12 to 24"  From  Southern Pennsylvania into ne new jersy, city and Long Island
snow map? Where do you find this new GFS? TT doesnt seem to have it.
Pivitol weather excellent site
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:21 am

@algae888 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:The new gf S  Jackpot central new jersey.  With over With over 2'. 12 to 24"  From  Southern Pennsylvania into ne new jersy, city and Long Island
snow map? Where do you find this new GFS? TT doesnt seem to have it.
Pivitol weather excellent site
just found it, yes i know of the site didnt know they had it, how do you zoom into a close up? looks like we do okay too Al. 30 inches over LI wow
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:21 am

GFS V16 (new GFS). Just an absolute crush job PHL to NYC. GFS crush job too based on the mid-levels pretty much same area. Think GFS precip is underdone. Goal posts may be narrowing here.

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Post by algae888 Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:22 am

Cmc nice
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:23 am

GFS v16 (new GFS)

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 2 Gfspar10

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:26 am

Holy cow CMC a large part of PA sees 24-36 inches our area is a high end godzilla.

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 2 Gem_as10


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Post by algae888 Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:27 am

Cmc 3 feet near allentown. 2 feet just north of Trenton 18"  metro nyc. Does turn to rain for awhile acacross much of area
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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:29 am

@heehaw453 wrote:GFS v16 (new GFS)

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 2 Gfspar10


Looks a lot like Feb 9-10, 2010. I know, I keep harping on this. lol
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Post by TheAresian Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:29 am

To the most knowledgeable members of the board, which of these models makes sense as opposed to which ones are showing us lots of nice numbers and pretty colors? We usually throw the GFS out, discount the NAM outside of maybe 48 hrs and we've yet to hear from King Euro the 12zth. Is one of these other models suddenly a beacon of previously hidden wisdom?

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:31 am

These solutions are really high order magnitude at this range.  I could see at D7 this kind of stuff.

CMC consolidated a bit better and tucked a bit more. Deformation bands were more intense.  Obviously it's looking more likely that someone is getting buried with storm. Devil in details.

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 2 Cmc14

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Post by algae888 Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:33 am

Yes heehaw some places are going to be buried. I don't think we will know until Monday morning unfortunately
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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:36 am

@TheAresian wrote:To the most knowledgeable members of the board, which of these models makes sense as opposed to which ones are showing us lots of nice numbers and pretty colors? We usually throw the GFS out, discount the NAM outside of maybe 48 hrs and we've yet to hear from King Euro the 12zth. Is one of these other models suddenly a beacon of previously hidden wisdom?

Right now I think its just a matter at looking at a blend of all the models and seeing where they are consistent, and not getting too bogged down (just yet) in the details of where exactly the heaviest snowfall will be.  There seems to be general consensus on this being a big snowfall (5"-plus) for the almost the entire area, but it's that large jackpot zone (10" plus) that is hard to nail down. rb has been feeling a northward trend and overnight that seemed to possibly be taking shape, but then the 12z NAM came back south, and the other models have seemed to not get too far north at any point. I still think the heaviest snows will be oriented from just north of Philadelphia to just south of NYC  then out onto Long Island with still significant snow 20-30 miles just north and south of that jackpot strip. The areas I'm not sure of? New Jersey south of Route 70 and east of route 206 and the northern tier of PA and southern tier of NY across and up to Albany. But that's a guess. Details still up in the air as I said.
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:37 am

@algae888 wrote:Yes heehaw some places are going to be buried. I don't think we will know until Monday morning unfortunately

Algae I think you're right. I think it's going to be impossible to know jackpot areas. But large scale event over a large scope seems likely. Frank has his work cut out for him. LOL! Kudos Frank for trying to figure it out.

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