NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

Page 5 of 10 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10  Next

Go down

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:30 pm

Wow on the Euro. Mid-levels are tucked but just stall out. Once again a high order and long duration event solution we see. It's about the maturation process and timing of those mid-levels lows. If right then this is a really big event for us.

heehaw453

Posts : 1599
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:31 pm

From JOhn Homenuk
One thing to remember here is that we are catching this cyclone at a different point in its developmental processes than we are used to. The mid/upper level flow means the cyclonic development is titled off-kilter from some of our classics. We are not going to see a classic NW to SE oriented cold conveyor belt, instead it will have more of a W to E angle as it develops here. As a result, your typical mid level low center positions may not be ideal here.



Using the NAM3 as a proxy (which isn't too dissimilar from the Euro) much of E PA/NJ/NYC/SE NY is ideally positioned for the best rates and dendritic growth of the entire system. This is a *huge* improvement over the sporadic and oscillating rates we were looking at a few days ago. Yes, a dry slot is likely coming after this occludes and blows north and west. But I'll buy that with this package.


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12124
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

Post by CDF24 Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:33 pm

Thank you one and all for your insight. I’ve been lurking for years and have nothing to offer except questions. The questions are normally so naive, I just don’t ask. I really appreciate the participation and have learned a lot by watching and reading.

If it’s ok, I will give observation on this storm when the time comes.

CDF24

Posts : 6
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2017-09-08

sroc4, amugs and brownie like this post

Back to top Go down

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

Post by algae888 Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:35 pm

It looks like the euro will get schooled by other guidance with regards to the start time. As of its 12z  1/28 run euro was insistent on holding off precip until 18z monday while other guidance had snow falling by late Sunday night. Euro now is in line with other guidance with start time Sunday night.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 58
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

Post by mmanisca Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:36 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Dont forget there is an unwritten rule that these things tend to tick S or SE the day before.

I hope so. Wouldnt take much of a jog south to keep the warmer ocean air out of my area, but central and eastern Suffolk will need a big jog SE.. Of course this is just another run so we will continue to watch the evolution of the system!

Frank I know I dont so much but I like watching everyone. You are all doing a great job! Keep up the good work, all of you folks!
mmanisca
mmanisca

Posts : 182
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2013-01-23
Age : 62
Location : Deer Park, Long Island

Back to top Go down

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

Post by WeatherBob Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:37 pm

CDF24, don’t worry, ask whatever you like. We like to teach people around here. At worst you won’t get an answer and most times you will get an answer. No one will chastise you or make you feel uncomfortable.
WeatherBob
WeatherBob
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 598
Reputation : 82
Join date : 2013-12-13
Location : Caldwell, NJ - NW Essex County - Altitude 480 ft

CDF24 likes this post

Back to top Go down

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

Post by CDF24 Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:41 pm

Thanks weatherbob, I didn’t want to muddy the conversation with stupid questions. Maybe I need to run to banter with those. Anyway, I’ll post observations tomorrow, if you guys will take them

CDF24

Posts : 6
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2017-09-08

Back to top Go down

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:46 pm

@CDF24 wrote:Thank you one and all for your insight. I’ve been lurking for years and have nothing to offer except questions.  The questions are normally so naive, I just don’t ask.  I really appreciate the participation and have learned a lot by watching and reading.LOL!

Ask away and we'll do out best to answer. Welcome aboard

If it’s ok, I will give observation on this storm when the time comes.  

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12124
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

CDF24 likes this post

Back to top Go down

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:46 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Ecmwf-deterministic-nyc-total_snow_10to1-2267200.png.6e1795f188a9babc1e28db5ab7744ff9

Anyone have the K uchera for the Euro. I would think the HV ratios and NWNJ, WCT and NEPA will be way better than 10:1. More like 12 to 14:1?


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:47 pm; edited 2 times in total
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:46 pm

If it’s a question that’s unrelated to the storm, then Banter is the place to go. But if it’s related, as @WeatherBob said, ask away! No dumb questions, because chances are, you aren’t alone.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5354
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Grselig and CDF24 like this post

Back to top Go down

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

Post by Irish Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:48 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Ecmwf-deterministic-nyc-total_snow_10to1-2267200.png.6e1795f188a9babc1e28db5ab7744ff9

Anyone have the K uchera for the Euro. I would think the HV ratios and NWNJ, WCT and NEPA will be way better than 10:1. More like 12 to 14:1?

I read somewhere that they'll likely be 12:1.

Irish

Posts : 428
Reputation : 18
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 42
Location : Old Bridge, NJ

CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post

Back to top Go down

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

Post by billg315 Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:52 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Ecmwf-deterministic-nyc-total_snow_10to1-2267200.png.6e1795f188a9babc1e28db5ab7744ff9

Anyone have the K uchera for the Euro. I would think the HV ratios and NWNJ, WCT and NEPA will be way better than 10:1. More like 12 to 14:1?

I know Frank hates these, so I post only because of your request. Lol:
February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 71e20c10
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 3624
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 47
Location : Flemington, NJ

CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post

Back to top Go down

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:55 pm

Wow euro is beautiful and my gosh those 850mb winds if they mix down even half we got a major blizzard. Don't chastise me for say that a few people including Frank already said the word lol. Frank when you gonna put up the monster?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17938
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:57 pm

@billg315 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Ecmwf-deterministic-nyc-total_snow_10to1-2267200.png.6e1795f188a9babc1e28db5ab7744ff9

Anyone have the K uchera for the Euro. I would think the HV ratios and NWNJ, WCT and NEPA will be way better than 10:1. More like 12 to 14:1?

I know Frank hates these, so I post only because of your request. Lol:
February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 71e20c10
Frank actually posted one several pages back so he can't complain anymore. My gosh that's beautiful for us all higher ratios or not.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17938
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

Post by Irish Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:59 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Wow euro is beautiful and my gosh those 850mb winds if they mix down even half we got a major blizzard. Don't chastise me for say that a few people including Frank already said the word lol. Frank when you gonna put up the monster?

Between 3 and 4.

Irish

Posts : 428
Reputation : 18
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 42
Location : Old Bridge, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:13 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@billg315 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Ecmwf-deterministic-nyc-total_snow_10to1-2267200.png.6e1795f188a9babc1e28db5ab7744ff9

Anyone have the K uchera for the Euro. I would think the HV ratios and NWNJ, WCT and NEPA will be way better than 10:1. More like 12 to 14:1?

I know Frank hates these, so I post only because of your request. Lol:
February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 71e20c10
Frank actually posted one several pages back so he can't complain anymore. My gosh that's beautiful for us all higher ratios or not.

Anyplace within a 50 mile radius north, south, east and even further west of midtown gets 12 plus inches on that map. Our forum is large enough climate wise that that is rarely the case. Time will tell if it verifies.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

Post by TheAresian Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:17 pm

If that K-Euro verified, I'd be looking at almost 18". That's way too much to dream about. Also, while it might be a little unrelated (and if it is, let me know and I'll take it down) check out the forecasted 2/9 snow depth for the Tug Hill area.

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Tug_hi10

TheAresian

Posts : 79
Reputation : 10
Join date : 2019-11-13
Location : Painted Post, NY

Back to top Go down

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

Post by Irish Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:33 pm

I know that we can't take it as a guarantee but the trend can't be ignored. TWC just upped my snowfall total to 15-25 inches!

Irish

Posts : 428
Reputation : 18
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 42
Location : Old Bridge, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:34 pm

@TheAresian wrote:If that K-Euro verified, I'd be looking at almost 18". That's way too much to dream about. Also, while it might be a little unrelated (and if it is, let me know and I'll take it down) check out the forecasted 2/9 snow depth for the Tug Hill area.

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Tug_hi10

70 inch snow depth unreal, and that's after settling and compression.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

Post by frank 638 Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:40 pm

Twc had upped my snow total early this morning has me for 6to 10 . Now they have me for 8 to 12 inches

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2304
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 37
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:40 pm

@Irish wrote:I know that we can't take it as a guarantee but the trend can't be ignored. TWC just upped my snowfall total to 15-25 inches!

You've been sitting in a sweet spot for most of the runs the last three days so looking good there.

80 miles or so due north of you the TWC upped me a little to 11-19 inches, and not that I care because I rely on them the least, but still no Winter Storm watch here from the NWS. Interesting.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

Post by frank 638 Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:41 pm

I wonder if national weather service will change the winter storm watch into blizzard warnings

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2304
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 37
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

Post by Irish Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:44 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Irish wrote:I know that we can't take it as a guarantee but the trend can't be ignored. TWC just upped my snowfall total to 15-25 inches!

You've been sitting in a sweet spot for most of the runs the last three days so looking good there.

80 miles or so due north of you the TWC upped me a little to 11-19 inches, and not that I care because I rely on them the least, but still no Winter Storm watch here from the NWS. Interesting.

Yup, certainly something we've been talking about. However, I was just shocked to see it go up yet again. If it happened, it'll be the first time, I've seen totals like that since I was a kid/teenager!

I think your WSW should've been posted already, only a matter of time. I think most of our board sees a great Storm, things are ramping up!


Last edited by Irish on Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:45 pm; edited 1 time in total

Irish

Posts : 428
Reputation : 18
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 42
Location : Old Bridge, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

Post by SENJsnowman Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:44 pm

@Irish wrote:I know that we can't take it as a guarantee but the trend can't be ignored. TWC just upped my snowfall total to 15-25 inches!

The trends are always valuable. But what you are seeing happen in real time is that the app follows the model runs. So, you've been ahead of the apps the whole time.

Any chance to squeak another 25-50 mi SE for little ol' SENJ here. I mean, 24-36 hours for 1 more tick?

Bill, I don't want to sound like a complainer, but I need that snow on the back end, so the kids and get out there and enjoy it. Maybe if it were to crush all day and then changeover Mon eve...???

I'm thinking it's time to roll up the shovels and sleds in the carpet and head west- There's (white) gold in them thar hills!!!

SENJsnowman

Posts : 749
Reputation : 58
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 48
Location : Bayville, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

Post by billg315 Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:48 pm

@SENJsnowman wrote:
@Irish wrote:I know that we can't take it as a guarantee but the trend can't be ignored. TWC just upped my snowfall total to 15-25 inches!

The trends are always valuable. But what you are seeing happen in real time is that the app follows the model runs. So, you've been ahead of the apps the whole time.

Any chance to squeak another 25-50 mi SE for little ol' SENJ here. I mean, 24-36 hours for 1 more tick?

Bill, I don't want to sound like a complainer, but I need that snow on the back end, so the kids and get out there and enjoy it. Maybe if it were to crush all day and then changeover Mon eve...???

I'm thinking it's time to roll up the shovels and sleds in the carpet and head west- There's (white) gold in them thar hills!!!

Well on the Euro your part of Ocean County doesn't get much rain at all, then goes back to snow at the end. So you might have one of those sandwiches with several inches of snow, and a layer of icy snow in the middle and then a layer of fluffy snow on top. But, I do think if you drive NW, you will likely see no rain at all, so I can't say that's not a good plan. Very Happy
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 3624
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 47
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 5 of 10 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum