Re: February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:22 pm

Beginning 00z tonight we can start comparing the models to actual observations. The models best representative of the current surface obviously should be given more credibility. The RGEM, by the way, is having issues with this. I would toss it.

by **WeatherBob** Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:27 pm

Frank, you coming out with your snow forecast map later this aft?

by **heehaw453** Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:30 pm

Wow on the Euro. Mid-levels are tucked but just stall out. Once again a high order and long duration event solution we see. It's about the maturation process and timing of those mid-levels lows. If right then this is a really big event for us.

by **amugs** Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:31 pm

From JOhn Homenuk
One thing to remember here is that we are catching this cyclone at a different point in its developmental processes than we are used to. The mid/upper level flow means the cyclonic development is titled off-kilter from some of our classics. We are not going to see a classic NW to SE oriented cold conveyor belt, instead it will have more of a W to E angle as it develops here. As a result, your typical mid level low center positions may not be ideal here.

Using the NAM3 as a proxy (which isn't too dissimilar from the Euro) much of E PA/NJ/NYC/SE NY is ideally positioned for the best rates and dendritic growth of the entire system. This is a *huge* improvement over the sporadic and oscillating rates we were looking at a few days ago. Yes, a dry slot is likely coming after this occludes and blows north and west. But I'll buy that with this package.

by CDF24 Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:33 pm

Thank you one and all for your insight. I’ve been lurking for years and have nothing to offer except questions. The questions are normally so naive, I just don’t ask. I really appreciate the participation and have learned a lot by watching and reading.

If it’s ok, I will give observation on this storm when the time comes.

by **algae888** Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:35 pm

It looks like the euro will get schooled by other guidance with regards to the start time. As of its 12z 1/28 run euro was insistent on holding off precip until 18z monday while other guidance had snow falling by late Sunday night. Euro now is in line with other guidance with start time Sunday night.

by **mmanisca** Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:36 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Dont forget there is an unwritten rule that these things tend to tick S or SE the day before.

I hope so. Wouldnt take much of a jog south to keep the warmer ocean air out of my area, but central and eastern Suffolk will need a big jog SE.. Of course this is just another run so we will continue to watch the evolution of the system!

Frank I know I dont so much but I like watching everyone. You are all doing a great job! Keep up the good work, all of you folks!

by **WeatherBob** Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:37 pm

CDF24, don’t worry, ask whatever you like. We like to teach people around here. At worst you won’t get an answer and most times you will get an answer. No one will chastise you or make you feel uncomfortable.

by CDF24 Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:41 pm

Thanks weatherbob, I didn’t want to muddy the conversation with stupid questions. Maybe I need to run to banter with those. Anyway, I’ll post observations tomorrow, if you guys will take them

by **amugs** Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:46 pm

CDF24 wrote:Thank you one and all for your insight. I’ve been lurking for years and have nothing to offer except questions. The questions are normally so naive, I just don’t ask. I really appreciate the participation and have learned a lot by watching and reading.LOL!

Ask away and we'll do out best to answer. Welcome aboard

If it’s ok, I will give observation on this storm when the time comes.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:46 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:

Anyone have the K uchera for the Euro. I would think the HV ratios and NWNJ, WCT and NEPA will be way better than 10:1. More like 12 to 14:1?

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:46 pm

If it’s a question that’s unrelated to the storm, then Banter is the place to go. But if it’s related, as @WeatherBob said, ask away! No dumb questions, because chances are, you aren’t alone.

by **Irish** Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:48 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:

Anyone have the K uchera for the Euro. I would think the HV ratios and NWNJ, WCT and NEPA will be way better than 10:1. More like 12 to 14:1?

I read somewhere that they'll likely be 12:1.

by **billg315** Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:52 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:

Anyone have the K uchera for the Euro. I would think the HV ratios and NWNJ, WCT and NEPA will be way better than 10:1. More like 12 to 14:1?

I know Frank hates these, so I post only because of your request. Lol:

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 71e20c10

by **jmanley32** Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:55 pm

Wow euro is beautiful and my gosh those 850mb winds if they mix down even half we got a major blizzard. Don't chastise me for say that a few people including Frank already said the word lol. Frank when you gonna put up the monster?

by **jmanley32** Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:57 pm

billg315 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:

Anyone have the K uchera for the Euro. I would think the HV ratios and NWNJ, WCT and NEPA will be way better than 10:1. More like 12 to 14:1?

I know Frank hates these, so I post only because of your request. Lol:

Frank actually posted one several pages back so he can't complain anymore. My gosh that's beautiful for us all higher ratios or not.

by **Irish** Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:59 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Wow euro is beautiful and my gosh those 850mb winds if they mix down even half we got a major blizzard. Don't chastise me for say that a few people including Frank already said the word lol. Frank when you gonna put up the monster?

Between 3 and 4.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:13 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
billg315 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:

Anyone have the K uchera for the Euro. I would think the HV ratios and NWNJ, WCT and NEPA will be way better than 10:1. More like 12 to 14:1?

I know Frank hates these, so I post only because of your request. Lol:
Frank actually posted one several pages back so he can't complain anymore. My gosh that's beautiful for us all higher ratios or not.

Anyplace within a 50 mile radius north, south, east and even further west of midtown gets 12 plus inches on that map. Our forum is large enough climate wise that that is rarely the case. Time will tell if it verifies.

by **TheAresian** Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:17 pm

If that K-Euro verified, I'd be looking at almost 18". That's way too much to dream about. Also, while it might be a little unrelated (and if it is, let me know and I'll take it down) check out the forecasted 2/9 snow depth for the Tug Hill area.

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 5 Tug_hi10

by **Irish** Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:33 pm

I know that we can't take it as a guarantee but the trend can't be ignored. TWC just upped my snowfall total to 15-25 inches!

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:34 pm

TheAresian wrote:If that K-Euro verified, I'd be looking at almost 18". That's way too much to dream about. Also, while it might be a little unrelated (and if it is, let me know and I'll take it down) check out the forecasted 2/9 snow depth for the Tug Hill area.

70 inch snow depth unreal, and that's after settling and compression.

by **frank 638** Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:40 pm

Twc had upped my snow total early this morning has me for 6to 10 . Now they have me for 8 to 12 inches

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:40 pm

Irish wrote:I know that we can't take it as a guarantee but the trend can't be ignored. TWC just upped my snowfall total to 15-25 inches!

You've been sitting in a sweet spot for most of the runs the last three days so looking good there.

80 miles or so due north of you the TWC upped me a little to 11-19 inches, and not that I care because I rely on them the least, but still no Winter Storm watch here from the NWS. Interesting.

by **frank 638** Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:41 pm

I wonder if national weather service will change the winter storm watch into blizzard warnings

by **Irish** Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:44 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Irish wrote:I know that we can't take it as a guarantee but the trend can't be ignored. TWC just upped my snowfall total to 15-25 inches!

You've been sitting in a sweet spot for most of the runs the last three days so looking good there.

80 miles or so due north of you the TWC upped me a little to 11-19 inches, and not that I care because I rely on them the least, but still no Winter Storm watch here from the NWS. Interesting.

Yup, certainly something we've been talking about. However, I was just shocked to see it go up yet again. If it happened, it'll be the first time, I've seen totals like that since I was a kid/teenager!

I think your WSW should've been posted already, only a matter of time. I think most of our board sees a great Storm, things are ramping up!

by **SENJsnowman** Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:44 pm

Irish wrote:I know that we can't take it as a guarantee but the trend can't be ignored. TWC just upped my snowfall total to 15-25 inches!

The trends are always valuable. But what you are seeing happen in real time is that the app follows the model runs. So, you've been ahead of the apps the whole time.

Any chance to squeak another 25-50 mi SE for little ol' SENJ here. I mean, 24-36 hours for 1 more tick?

Bill, I don't want to sound like a complainer, but I need that snow on the back end, so the kids and get out there and enjoy it. Maybe if it were to crush all day and then changeover Mon eve...???

I'm thinking it's time to roll up the shovels and sleds in the carpet and head west- There's (white) gold in them thar hills!!!

by **billg315** Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:48 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
Irish wrote:I know that we can't take it as a guarantee but the trend can't be ignored. TWC just upped my snowfall total to 15-25 inches!

The trends are always valuable. But what you are seeing happen in real time is that the app follows the model runs. So, you've been ahead of the apps the whole time.

Any chance to squeak another 25-50 mi SE for little ol' SENJ here. I mean, 24-36 hours for 1 more tick?

Bill, I don't want to sound like a complainer, but I need that snow on the back end, so the kids and get out there and enjoy it. Maybe if it were to crush all day and then changeover Mon eve...???

I'm thinking it's time to roll up the shovels and sleds in the carpet and head west- There's (white) gold in them thar hills!!!

Well on the Euro your part of Ocean County doesn't get much rain at all, then goes back to snow at the end. So you might have one of those sandwiches with several inches of snow, and a layer of icy snow in the middle and then a layer of fluffy snow on top. But, I do think if you drive NW, you will likely see no rain at all, so I can't say that's not a good plan. Very Happy

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