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February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:39 am

@algae888 wrote:Yes heehaw some places are going to be buried. I don't think we will know until Monday morning unfortunately
This could be a recipe for a major disaster of a commute if we do not know until its upon us and the pros do not put out enough info, hopefully they will err cautiously and warn the upper extent here. Monday afternoon could be a nightmare.
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Post by algae888 Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:58 am

Ukie is north. Flips city east to rain aftdr about a foot for the city
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Post by algae888 Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:59 am

Very little model consensus so close to an event. Big bust potential both high and low all across our area
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Post by TheAresian Sat Jan 30, 2021 12:02 pm

I'm expecting nothing for myself and cheering for you all to get a couple of feet. Unless there's a massive northwest push over the next 24 hrs. Then I'll start hoping for myself while still cheering for you all.

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 30, 2021 12:12 pm

We've been talking about the comma head structure for moisture transports.  This is how you really crank CCB.  But you must have cold air in place to really max out the rates. Those kind of events are very special events.

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 3 Commah11

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Post by Irish Sat Jan 30, 2021 12:14 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:We've been talking about the comma head structure for moisture transports.  This is how you really crank CCB.  But you must have cold air in place to really max out the rates. Those kind of events are very special events.

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 3 Commah11

That looks crushing and once again right across CNJ. What is that showing, not snowfall amounts, right?

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 30, 2021 12:29 pm

TWC app, not exactly the place to go for accurate forecasts, had me at 3-7 inches last night and 10-17 inches now 12 hours later. Two days before the event I am still  preparing mentally for 3 inches or two feet on some models.

I think by 2AM tonight after all the 0Z's are in we will have our generaL answers. However in my long history of weather watching I've rarely seen the models nail down where the heaviest bands will setup even 6 hours in advance. That's always the big wildcard, and in a storm like this it will be the difference between 8 inches and 24 inches in a 40 mile area.

Also still no Winter Storm watch here, which shows the NWS still has no clue what to think.
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Post by TheAresian Sat Jan 30, 2021 12:31 pm

They've got me down for 4-6". Until tonight's 0z runs, I'm not believing anything. There has been way too much fluctuation run to run, model to model.

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Post by Irish Sat Jan 30, 2021 12:35 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:TWC app, not exactly the place to go for accurate forecasts, had me at 3-7 inches last night and 10-17 inches now 12 hours later. Two days before the event I am still  preparing mentally for 3 inches or two feet on some models.

I think by 2AM tonight after all the 0Z's are in we will have our generaL answers. However in my long history of weather watching I've rarely seen the models nail down where the heaviest bands will setup even 6 hours in advance. That's always the big wildcard, and in a storm like this it will be the difference between 8 inches and 24 inches in a 40 mile area.

Also still no Winter Storm watch here, which shows the NWS still has no clue what to think.

Agreed, I will say however, that TWC has predicted as low as 6-12 and as high as just under 2 feet for me. So, in their opinion, it's coming they just don't know if we'll be the exact bullseye or just outside it. Right now they have me at 3-5 Sunday night, 8-12 Monday day, 1-3 Monday night, and an inch on Tuesday for a range of 13-21. We shall see...

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Post by WeatherBob Sat Jan 30, 2021 12:37 pm

Bernie Rayno says 12 to 18 from west of Philly NE thru Ne Pa and NNJ into SE NY. This line is like 75 to 100 miles NW of the anticipated track of the 500 MB low. The 500 MB low tracks from eastern VA to just SE of AC and the into central LI . I think this has been a fairly consistent track of the 500 MB low on a good portion of the models.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 12:42 pm

I'm having a hard time reconciling models with so much dry slotting say from NJ to western CT. These places stay firmly west of the main LP, and there's tremendous dynamics fueling the storm. The 850-900mb jet is definitely working in our favor. The comma shape, Heehaw noted, is very pronounced.

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_uv850_neus_11

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_uv850_neus_12

The 700mb low tracks south then off the coast and keeps our air moist. Risk of dry slotting for central/eastern LI into portions of SNE exist, though.

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 3 Gfs-vv

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 3 Gfs-vv2

What is too late to develop is the upper level jet streak in the NW Atlantic. I would like to see it more west than where the GFS had it.

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 3 250mb



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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 12:50 pm

With the EURO on its way in, one of the things to look at is how far east or north does the primary advance before transferring energy to the coast? Seems like models are holding onto it longer, which is not great for most of us.

This was 00z last night

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 3 Ecmwf_mslpa_us_3

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 30, 2021 12:55 pm

EURO making changes aloft again. Higher heights out front, relaxed confluence. Think it’s coming further north. Let’s see.

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Post by Irish Sat Jan 30, 2021 12:56 pm

@rb924119 wrote:EURO making changes aloft again. Higher heights out front, relaxed confluence. Think it’s coming further north. Let’s see.

NO!!

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:00 pm

The trough is a bit more positively tilted, though, in later frames, so that may cancel out the decreased confluence.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:00 pm

@rb924119 wrote:EURO making changes aloft again. Higher heights out front, relaxed confluence. Think it’s coming further north. Let’s see.

Gunna have to disagree

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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:01 pm

Euro begins to transfer to the coast around Hr39 (10 p.m Sunday)
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:01 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:EURO making changes aloft again. Higher heights out front, relaxed confluence. Think it’s coming further north. Let’s see.

Gunna have to disagree

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See my follow-up post lol same page, brotha Smile

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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:01 pm

@rb924119 wrote:EURO making changes aloft again. Higher heights out front, relaxed confluence. Think it’s coming further north. Let’s see.

Seems a smidge south to me so far.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:02 pm

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 3 181500615_ezgif.com-gif-maker(6).gif.6b3b81517c9ea4179d3aaaa4b71585de

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:02 pm

Noticeable decrease in confluence/higher heights at 42.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:03 pm

EURO is bringing the capocollo for dinner

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:03 pm

MADONNE

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:04 pm

This is all you need to see

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:05 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:EURO is bringing the capocollo for dinner

No idea what that means but I'm sensing it's not good for those of us north of NYC.
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