February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

TheAresian wrote:To the most knowledgeable members of the board, which of these models makes sense as opposed to which ones are showing us lots of nice numbers and pretty colors? We usually throw the GFS out, discount the NAM outside of maybe 48 hrs and we've yet to hear from King Euro the 12zth. Is one of these other models suddenly a beacon of previously hidden wisdom?

Right now I think its just a matter at looking at a blend of all the models and seeing where they are consistent, and not getting too bogged down (just yet) in the details of where exactly the heaviest snowfall will be.  There seems to be general consensus on this being a big snowfall (5"-plus) for the almost the entire area, but it's that large jackpot zone (10" plus) that is hard to nail down. rb has been feeling a northward trend and overnight that seemed to possibly be taking shape, but then the 12z NAM came back south, and the other models have seemed to not get too far north at any point. I still think the heaviest snows will be oriented from just north of Philadelphia to just south of NYC  then out onto Long Island with still significant snow 20-30 miles just north and south of that jackpot strip. The areas I'm not sure of? New Jersey south of Route 70 and east of route 206 and the northern tier of PA and southern tier of NY across and up to Albany. But that's a guess. Details still up in the air as I said.

algae888 wrote:Yes heehaw some places are going to be buried. I don't think we will know until Monday morning unfortunately

Algae I think you're right. I think it's going to be impossible to know jackpot areas. But large scale event over a large scope seems likely. Frank has his work cut out for him. LOL! Kudos Frank for trying to figure it out.

algae888 wrote:Yes heehaw some places are going to be buried. I don't think we will know until Monday morning unfortunately

This could be a recipe for a major disaster of a commute if we do not know until its upon us and the pros do not put out enough info, hopefully they will err cautiously and warn the upper extent here. Monday afternoon could be a nightmare.

Ukie is north. Flips city east to rain aftdr about a foot for the city

Very little model consensus so close to an event. Big bust potential both high and low all across our area

I'm expecting nothing for myself and cheering for you all to get a couple of feet. Unless there's a massive northwest push over the next 24 hrs. Then I'll start hoping for myself while still cheering for you all.

We've been talking about the comma head structure for moisture transports.  This is how you really crank CCB.  But you must have cold air in place to really max out the rates. Those kind of events are very special events.

heehaw453 wrote:We've been talking about the comma head structure for moisture transports.  This is how you really crank CCB.  But you must have cold air in place to really max out the rates. Those kind of events are very special events.

That looks crushing and once again right across CNJ. What is that showing, not snowfall amounts, right?

TWC app, not exactly the place to go for accurate forecasts, had me at 3-7 inches last night and 10-17 inches now 12 hours later. Two days before the event I am still  preparing mentally for 3 inches or two feet on some models.

I think by 2AM tonight after all the 0Z's are in we will have our generaL answers. However in my long history of weather watching I've rarely seen the models nail down where the heaviest bands will setup even 6 hours in advance. That's always the big wildcard, and in a storm like this it will be the difference between 8 inches and 24 inches in a 40 mile area.

Also still no Winter Storm watch here, which shows the NWS still has no clue what to think.

They've got me down for 4-6". Until tonight's 0z runs, I'm not believing anything. There has been way too much fluctuation run to run, model to model.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:TWC app, not exactly the place to go for accurate forecasts, had me at 3-7 inches last night and 10-17 inches now 12 hours later. Two days before the event I am still  preparing mentally for 3 inches or two feet on some models.

I think by 2AM tonight after all the 0Z's are in we will have our generaL answers. However in my long history of weather watching I've rarely seen the models nail down where the heaviest bands will setup even 6 hours in advance. That's always the big wildcard, and in a storm like this it will be the difference between 8 inches and 24 inches in a 40 mile area.

Also still no Winter Storm watch here, which shows the NWS still has no clue what to think.

Agreed, I will say however, that TWC has predicted as low as 6-12 and as high as just under 2 feet for me. So, in their opinion, it's coming they just don't know if we'll be the exact bullseye or just outside it. Right now they have me at 3-5 Sunday night, 8-12 Monday day, 1-3 Monday night, and an inch on Tuesday for a range of 13-21. We shall see...

Bernie Rayno says 12 to 18 from west of Philly NE thru Ne Pa and NNJ into SE NY. This line is like 75 to 100 miles NW of the anticipated track of the 500 MB low. The 500 MB low tracks from eastern VA to just SE of AC and the into central LI . I think this has been a fairly consistent track of the 500 MB low on a good portion of the models.

I'm having a hard time reconciling models with so much dry slotting say from NJ to western CT. These places stay firmly west of the main LP, and there's tremendous dynamics fueling the storm. The 850-900mb jet is definitely working in our favor. The comma shape, Heehaw noted, is very pronounced.





The 700mb low tracks south then off the coast and keeps our air moist. Risk of dry slotting for central/eastern LI into portions of SNE exist, though.





What is too late to develop is the upper level jet streak in the NW Atlantic. I would like to see it more west than where the GFS had it.

With the EURO on its way in, one of the things to look at is how far east or north does the primary advance before transferring energy to the coast? Seems like models are holding onto it longer, which is not great for most of us.

This was 00z last night

EURO making changes aloft again. Higher heights out front, relaxed confluence. Think it’s coming further north. Let’s see.

rb924119 wrote:EURO making changes aloft again. Higher heights out front, relaxed confluence. Think it’s coming further north. Let’s see.

NO!!

The trough is a bit more positively tilted, though, in later frames, so that may cancel out the decreased confluence.

rb924119 wrote:EURO making changes aloft again. Higher heights out front, relaxed confluence. Think it’s coming further north. Let’s see.

Gunna have to disagree

Euro begins to transfer to the coast around Hr39 (10 p.m Sunday)

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:EURO making changes aloft again. Higher heights out front, relaxed confluence. Think it’s coming further north. Let’s see.

Gunna have to disagree

See my follow-up post lol same page, brotha

rb924119 wrote:EURO making changes aloft again. Higher heights out front, relaxed confluence. Think it’s coming further north. Let’s see.

Seems a smidge south to me so far.

Noticeable decrease in confluence/higher heights at 42.

EURO is bringing the capocollo for dinner

MADONNE

This is all you need to see

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO is bringing the capocollo for dinner

No idea what that means but I'm sensing it's not good for those of us north of NYC.