NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Page 5 of 10 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10  Next

Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by phil155 Sat Feb 13, 2021 4:12 pm

Very light sleet and frz drizzle here but it is very light

phil155

Posts : 122
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2019-12-16

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 13, 2021 4:13 pm

@amugs wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Irish wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Okay Ice Map and JMAN no IMBY  please.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 1613552400-NgSJNAf8iQ8

Why you guys always picking on me? I can see what is shown there havent I been here long enough to know the models aren't go show IMBY? Though that doesn't look good for most including myself lol And as verbatim thats 0.5-0.75 which I have never witnessed and not sure I want to.  We will have to see as this wavers back and forth, gonna be a fine line between a sigh relief rain (relatively speaking) or all out major icing. Mugs do have one question, what makes you believe that frz could actually be a issue for heat island? I recall having had icing before but hit the south bronx into NYC and it was just rain.  Its very unusual for NYC to anything sig.

No offense Jman, just offering my 2 cents since you asked. I've been a part of many message boards before, this, my first weather one. There always seems to be at least 1 guy on every board, whose general personality and ways of contributing, put people off.  It can be hard to pinpoint, explain and even harder for you to actually see in yourself.  So most, just avoid commenting as it's just an endless, cyclical situation that will never change. In general, you are pretty harmless as others have stated openly on the boards or through PMs.  It's like any point in life - HS, college, professionally, socially as adults, on message boards, etc. where you just meet a mix of people.  Some you immediately connect with, others, you never will and some have hit or miss moments. All parties deal with things the best they can and hope for the best experience. Ultimately, a school motto we have where I teach is, "You can't say, you can't play."  I tell this to kids all the time. I say you are not going to like every person you meet, you don't have to be friends with everyone and you may not want to engage or play with some, but you have to respect all people and not limit their rights to "play" and live their lives.

I myself, have just worked hard on moving on and focusing on just adding when I can and enjoying what so many others contribute, which is more than I could. Because for awhile, focusing on the annoyances, was ruining my experience here and making me want to leave.

Hope that helps.
First I appreciate that and your right, but I was just surprised at mugs cuz we know each other well, albeit I do ask IMBY questions but I think my mood this year as you ever so put it as erratic in nature earlier on, has  since been pretty steady and not jumping on and off the train. Not just because I have seen good snowfall but also because I have just seen things in another light, as it appears as you stated the same.  What is will be what won't won't. I even have seen you get a bit fretty my friend lol. I have hence buried the hatchet with our quarrel and now this can be taken to banter but I did not know you were a teacher!! I was sadly until COVID basically shut the enrollment down to 20% and instead of furlough they just fired most of us. They have since taken several back, and I am still looking for other work. My main area of expertise is social work, so we are both in the helping fields : ) Hope the icing isn't too bad where you are, be super careful, i had a ice storm years ago like 2012 or something and my wife and I took major spills I wacked my head and she hurt her wrist, i actually ended up uncontrollably sliding down the hill in the street in my work cloths (yes you can laugh it probably looked hilarious), I said screw it its not worth it but even getting back into the apartment was a task and a half.  Two cars slid into each other on my hill it was a mess. Main road was okay.

I was just surprised at mugs cuz we know each other well, albeit I do ask IMBY questions JMAN luv you brother but you answered it adn admitted to this. This MAYBE an AREA WIDE issue. We have some time to see this and the EPS was a few ticks further as well adn the NAM is the furthest MODEL North making it a driving rainstorm after an initial dump. Every nudge, tick, jump mean teh world of difference in teh NYC metro region
FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 EuIWxVsWYAEjQW5?format=jpg&name=large
I admitted that I USED to do that ALOT, I do not believe I do so so much anymore. I know its cool. Looks nasty, verbatim there im on the cusp of ice or rain so who knows. Yes I agree could be a area wide issue.=, and the snowpack is a good point, it keeps surface colder and doesnt allow things to warm up as much but in upper atmosphere we get that transfer to rain and the recipe is not good. Do I have that kinda right? And is that the NAM or the Euro pictured?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17936
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by Dunnzoo Sat Feb 13, 2021 4:29 pm

@Fededle22 wrote:It's so hard to follow what is expected tonight into tomorrow and Monday into Tuesday with the flip flopping of conversations and model maps. It seems like tonight is next to nothing up in NNJ but Monday night sever icing and snow is still on the table. Correct?

yes, it is getting a little messy, because folks are looking at both events in the same thread. Just keep an eye on the time stamps on the maps, most of what has been posted recently are from now through Tuesday. There isn't much precip expected in NNJ tonight, although what falls will be messy. At this point, I am looking at the radar for today and wait and see what we get. I plan on staying in until at least later tomorrow. Be safe!

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4365
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by Dunnzoo Sat Feb 13, 2021 4:35 pm

Also, let's put all obs in the Feb. obs thread so we can keep the storm discussion here. It will be interesting to see who gets what and it will get buried in here. Please make sure you put your location if it is not in your profile.

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4365
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

kalleg likes this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 13, 2021 4:40 pm

Precip breaking out across SNJ stretching into LI

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Inxr1Kphla_h

But you can see the 540 line and 850mb 0* line is above freezing. It’s expected that our boundary layer temps will slowly and gradually rise which is what keeps majority of us out of snow

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 E964b110


_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20002
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 13, 2021 4:44 pm

The precip you see on that radar is NOT expected to move very far north. As stated, many people may actually be dry this weekend. I know the HRRR is showing decent amount of precip later tonight into tomorrow morning but I’m not buying into it right now.

Latest NAM shows freezing rain NW of I-95 early Tuesday morning before changing to plain rain

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_44

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_45

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20002
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by Fededle22 Sat Feb 13, 2021 5:09 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@Fededle22 wrote:It's so hard to follow what is expected tonight into tomorrow and Monday into Tuesday with the flip flopping of conversations and model maps. It seems like tonight is next to nothing up in NNJ but Monday night sever icing and snow is still on the table. Correct?

yes, it is getting a little messy, because folks are looking at both events in the same thread. Just keep an eye on the time stamps on the maps, most of what has been posted recently are from now through Tuesday. There isn't much precip expected in NNJ tonight, although what falls will be messy. At this point, I am looking at the radar for today and wait and see what we get. I plan on staying in until at least later tomorrow. Be safe!

Appreciate the response from you and Frank. Planning on going to a friends house tonight but they are just a couple miles away. Been looking at the time stamps and Frank has relayed that not too much moisture is expected to make it to NNJ tonight.
Fededle22
Fededle22

Posts : 160
Reputation : 2
Join date : 2013-03-08
Location : West Orange, NJ

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 13, 2021 5:42 pm

hearing a few pings from sleet.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17936
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 13, 2021 6:00 pm

18Z GFS track similar to 18Z NAM. Coastal hugger and consequentially warm. Let's hope this has the right idea. The big difference is where it places the TPV and High pressure. Further west means warmer and less ice.

heehaw453

Posts : 1599
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

phil155 likes this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by Zhukov1945 Sat Feb 13, 2021 6:55 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:18Z GFS track similar to 18Z NAM.  Coastal hugger and consequentially warm.  Let's hope this has the right idea.  The big difference is where it places the TPV and High pressure.  Further west means warmer and less ice.

So we are talking Euro/UK solutions v. GFS/NAM at this point? Gut says don't bet against the Euro but what do I know...
Zhukov1945
Zhukov1945

Posts : 80
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2018-03-21
Location : Clinton Township NJ

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:22 pm

18Z Euro continues the threat of significant to severe icing for NW of the I-95.  Might be a touch colder than 12Z.

I want to see the NAM in good range before I believe its storm track and thermal profiles.  Good range is tomorrow night for NAM.  The XFactor is the antecedent snow on the ground.  That will make a difference at the surface.

heehaw453

Posts : 1599
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:59 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:18Z Euro continues the threat of significant to severe icing for NW of the I-95.  Might be a touch colder than 12Z.

I want to see the NAM in good range before I believe its storm track and thermal profiles.  Good range is tomorrow night for NAM.  The XFactor is the antecedent snow on the ground.  That will make a difference at the surface.
Ice map? How far north of I-95?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17936
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by dkodgis Sat Feb 13, 2021 9:05 pm

Talking about tonight, nothing is going on up here. 30% prob of anything. However, different story for Mon into Tues but what will we get up here in East Bum****?
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1495
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by Vinnydula Sat Feb 13, 2021 10:36 pm

I guess nothing is happening for tonight up this way?
Vinnydula
Vinnydula
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 770
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2013-12-12
Location : Dobbs ferry

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by Joe Snow Sat Feb 13, 2021 11:52 pm

Got an ice coating on the cars and stairs, nearly broke my butt walking down the stairs taking the dog out, she went slip sliding as well. Not fun...
Joe Snow
Joe Snow
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 856
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2014-02-12
Age : 59
Location : Kings Park, NY

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:04 am

GFS has all rain it come so far west the ice threat is shifted to just south to as far as north of albany!! When you giuys said a NW trend I did not think canada by tomorrows runs.

CMC brings a grim reality to LHV & NW NJ with 1.00+ frz, which is just horrific if it happened. CMC also came north too keeping most just rain. CP and doc and others in the top corner of NJ, I would start getting real concerned up there, I doubt this drops all way back down to metro area though who knows, but it is still 2 days out.  Anyway you cut it to me it appears the models are consistant on a severe line of frz... someone is going to have a massive ice storm from central northern NY to NYC....these models have no clue who though. Frank wasn't kidding saying this was go be a difficult forcast.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Zr_acc11


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:09 am; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17936
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:07 am

@Joe Snow wrote:Got an ice coating on the cars and stairs, nearly broke my butt walking down the stairs taking the dog out, she went slip sliding as well. Not fun...
yeah no fun, i wrote a story somewhere of my experience once, the CMC is a devastating bluw mon/tues to a huge swath.  If the CMC happened verbatim (I hope the CMC is very unlikely) it could have trickle down effects into NYC by killing the main feeder lines and substations to NYC from up north with over a inch ice in LHV. scary crap.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:50 am; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17936
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:10 am

Not buying the CMC or RGEM with this

I think we’re all looking at plain rain. No ice.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20002
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by toople Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:34 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Not buying the CMC or RGEM with this

I think we’re all looking at plain rain. No ice.

How much rain do you expect? I know it's early call.

toople

Posts : 36
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2015-01-01
Location : Nutley, NJ

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 14, 2021 4:53 am

0Z Euro definitely came in a bit warmer.  I still think LHV, EPA, NEPA and NWNJ are at risk for icing.  Even if surface does warm eventually think the surface cold holds out long enough to be sig icing.  >= .5"

heehaw453

Posts : 1599
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:23 am

NAM is showing us the threat area for ice.  No changes whatsoever to where the main area of concern is.  The higher your elevation the greater the risk.


FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Nam15

heehaw453

Posts : 1599
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:54 am

@heehaw453 wrote:NAM is showing us the threat area for ice.  No changes whatsoever to where the main area of concern is.  The higher your elevation the greater the risk.


FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Nam15

Severe icing if that comes to fruition.

Timing appears to be 7-8pm tomorrow and into the overnight hours. By the time 8am Tuesday rolls around I think majority of us will be done with the freezing rain/rain. That is a small 'win' if you consider the freezing rain falls during a time when we're least active on the roads!

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20002
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:56 am

HRRR ice accumulation

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Zr-acc-us-ne

NWS might be too aggressive for parts of NNJ but conservative N&W

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 ERH-Ice

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20002
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:20 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:HRRR ice accumulation

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Zr-acc-us-ne

NWS might be too aggressive for parts of NNJ but conservative N&W

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 ERH-Ice

I agree with you. I think the highest risk is west of the Fall Line especially in areas of > 500' ASL. I'm fully expecting between .25" - .5" IMBY towards the Lehigh Valley. NEPA should expect > .5" as should NW NJ, and LHV IMO. The ground has been cold for a really long time and that must be considered in this setup.

heehaw453

Posts : 1599
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by Zhukov1945 Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:38 am

Possibly ignorant / basic question but what is the "Fall Line"?
Zhukov1945
Zhukov1945

Posts : 80
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2018-03-21
Location : Clinton Township NJ

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 5 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 5 of 10 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum