FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

jmanley32 wrote:

Irish wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:Okay Ice Map and JMAN no IMBY  please.

Why you guys always picking on me? I can see what is shown there havent I been here long enough to know the models aren't go show IMBY? Though that doesn't look good for most including myself lol And as verbatim thats 0.5-0.75 which I have never witnessed and not sure I want to.  We will have to see as this wavers back and forth, gonna be a fine line between a sigh relief rain (relatively speaking) or all out major icing. Mugs do have one question, what makes you believe that frz could actually be a issue for heat island? I recall having had icing before but hit the south bronx into NYC and it was just rain.  Its very unusual for NYC to anything sig.

No offense Jman, just offering my 2 cents since you asked. I've been a part of many message boards before, this, my first weather one. There always seems to be at least 1 guy on every board, whose general personality and ways of contributing, put people off.  It can be hard to pinpoint, explain and even harder for you to actually see in yourself.  So most, just avoid commenting as it's just an endless, cyclical situation that will never change. In general, you are pretty harmless as others have stated openly on the boards or through PMs.  It's like any point in life - HS, college, professionally, socially as adults, on message boards, etc. where you just meet a mix of people.  Some you immediately connect with, others, you never will and some have hit or miss moments. All parties deal with things the best they can and hope for the best experience. Ultimately, a school motto we have where I teach is, "You can't say, you can't play."  I tell this to kids all the time. I say you are not going to like every person you meet, you don't have to be friends with everyone and you may not want to engage or play with some, but you have to respect all people and not limit their rights to "play" and live their lives.

I myself, have just worked hard on moving on and focusing on just adding when I can and enjoying what so many others contribute, which is more than I could. Because for awhile, focusing on the annoyances, was ruining my experience here and making me want to leave.

Hope that helps.

First I appreciate that and your right, but I was just surprised at mugs cuz we know each other well, albeit I do ask IMBY questions but I think my mood this year as you ever so put it as erratic in nature earlier on, has  since been pretty steady and not jumping on and off the train. Not just because I have seen good snowfall but also because I have just seen things in another light, as it appears as you stated the same.  What is will be what won't won't. I even have seen you get a bit fretty my friend lol. I have hence buried the hatchet with our quarrel and now this can be taken to banter but I did not know you were a teacher!! I was sadly until COVID basically shut the enrollment down to 20% and instead of furlough they just fired most of us. They have since taken several back, and I am still looking for other work. My main area of expertise is social work, so we are both in the helping fields : ) Hope the icing isn't too bad where you are, be super careful, i had a ice storm years ago like 2012 or something and my wife and I took major spills I wacked my head and she hurt her wrist, i actually ended up uncontrollably sliding down the hill in the street in my work cloths (yes you can laugh it probably looked hilarious), I said screw it its not worth it but even getting back into the apartment was a task and a half.  Two cars slid into each other on my hill it was a mess. Main road was okay.

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Irish wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:Okay Ice Map and JMAN no IMBY  please.

Why you guys always picking on me? I can see what is shown there havent I been here long enough to know the models aren't go show IMBY? Though that doesn't look good for most including myself lol And as verbatim thats 0.5-0.75 which I have never witnessed and not sure I want to.  We will have to see as this wavers back and forth, gonna be a fine line between a sigh relief rain (relatively speaking) or all out major icing. Mugs do have one question, what makes you believe that frz could actually be a issue for heat island? I recall having had icing before but hit the south bronx into NYC and it was just rain.  Its very unusual for NYC to anything sig.

No offense Jman, just offering my 2 cents since you asked. I've been a part of many message boards before, this, my first weather one. There always seems to be at least 1 guy on every board, whose general personality and ways of contributing, put people off.  It can be hard to pinpoint, explain and even harder for you to actually see in yourself.  So most, just avoid commenting as it's just an endless, cyclical situation that will never change. In general, you are pretty harmless as others have stated openly on the boards or through PMs.  It's like any point in life - HS, college, professionally, socially as adults, on message boards, etc. where you just meet a mix of people.  Some you immediately connect with, others, you never will and some have hit or miss moments. All parties deal with things the best they can and hope for the best experience. Ultimately, a school motto we have where I teach is, "You can't say, you can't play."  I tell this to kids all the time. I say you are not going to like every person you meet, you don't have to be friends with everyone and you may not want to engage or play with some, but you have to respect all people and not limit their rights to "play" and live their lives.

I myself, have just worked hard on moving on and focusing on just adding when I can and enjoying what so many others contribute, which is more than I could. Because for awhile, focusing on the annoyances, was ruining my experience here and making me want to leave.

Hope that helps.

First I appreciate that and your right, but I was just surprised at mugs cuz we know each other well, albeit I do ask IMBY questions but I think my mood this year as you ever so put it as erratic in nature earlier on, has  since been pretty steady and not jumping on and off the train. Not just because I have seen good snowfall but also because I have just seen things in another light, as it appears as you stated the same.  What is will be what won't won't. I even have seen you get a bit fretty my friend lol. I have hence buried the hatchet with our quarrel and now this can be taken to banter but I did not know you were a teacher!! I was sadly until COVID basically shut the enrollment down to 20% and instead of furlough they just fired most of us. They have since taken several back, and I am still looking for other work. My main area of expertise is social work, so we are both in the helping fields : ) Hope the icing isn't too bad where you are, be super careful, i had a ice storm years ago like 2012 or something and my wife and I took major spills I wacked my head and she hurt her wrist, i actually ended up uncontrollably sliding down the hill in the street in my work cloths (yes you can laugh it probably looked hilarious), I said screw it its not worth it but even getting back into the apartment was a task and a half.  Two cars slid into each other on my hill it was a mess. Main road was okay.

I was just surprised at mugs cuz we know each other well, albeit I do ask IMBY questions JMAN luv you brother but you answered it adn admitted to this. This MAYBE an AREA WIDE issue. We have some time to see this and the EPS was a few ticks further as well adn the NAM is the furthest MODEL North making it a driving rainstorm after an initial dump. Every nudge, tick, jump mean teh world of difference in teh NYC metro region

Fededle22 wrote:It's so hard to follow what is expected tonight into tomorrow and Monday into Tuesday with the flip flopping of conversations and model maps. It seems like tonight is next to nothing up in NNJ but Monday night sever icing and snow is still on the table. Correct?

Dunnzoo wrote:

Fededle22 wrote:It's so hard to follow what is expected tonight into tomorrow and Monday into Tuesday with the flip flopping of conversations and model maps. It seems like tonight is next to nothing up in NNJ but Monday night sever icing and snow is still on the table. Correct?

yes, it is getting a little messy, because folks are looking at both events in the same thread. Just keep an eye on the time stamps on the maps, most of what has been posted recently are from now through Tuesday. There isn't much precip expected in NNJ tonight, although what falls will be messy. At this point, I am looking at the radar for today and wait and see what we get. I plan on staying in until at least later tomorrow. Be safe!

heehaw453 wrote:18Z GFS track similar to 18Z NAM.  Coastal hugger and consequentially warm.  Let's hope this has the right idea.  The big difference is where it places the TPV and High pressure.  Further west means warmer and less ice.

heehaw453 wrote:18Z Euro continues the threat of significant to severe icing for NW of the I-95.  Might be a touch colder than 12Z.

I want to see the NAM in good range before I believe its storm track and thermal profiles.  Good range is tomorrow night for NAM.  The XFactor is the antecedent snow on the ground.  That will make a difference at the surface.

Joe Snow wrote:Got an ice coating on the cars and stairs, nearly broke my butt walking down the stairs taking the dog out, she went slip sliding as well. Not fun...

Frank_Wx wrote:Not buying the CMC or RGEM with this

I think we’re all looking at plain rain. No ice.

heehaw453 wrote:NAM is showing us the threat area for ice.  No changes whatsoever to where the main area of concern is.  The higher your elevation the greater the risk.

Frank_Wx wrote:HRRR ice accumulation



NWS might be too aggressive for parts of NNJ but conservative N&W