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FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

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Post by jimv45 Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:57 pm

Winter storm watch just issued for my area, heavy mix freezing rain not good!!!

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 14, 2021 4:00 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:I wonder if we will get a winter weather Advisory for nyc
imo we may see a ice storm warning in Westchester. I dunno what our criteria is but it's lower than inland prolly. And heehaw I think those amounts are pretty conservative no?

I think they're good for now based on what I see from models.  The most sig impacts will be NW NJ, NEPA and LHV by far.  They will probably get >= .6" of ice.  Let's just hope for more low level warmth, but I'm skeptical due to the state of the surface snowpack.
so I'm technically part of lhv u don't think we see any Sig icing? Doesn't need be .5 plus to be a big issue.

Elevated areas like Orange County would be my concern.  I think lower elevated areas of the LHV will be much less impacted by ice.
oh completely agree but I could still see a quarter inch fall here b4 rain. Just my 2 cents. They are screwed up there. Hoping for you guys as .6 will cause a ton outages.

Good chance your area should get .25" of ice.  But as you know doubling that value to .5" is almost exponential in terms of impact.  Maybe not exponential, but more than linear that's for sure.
well as of the wwa they are saying far less but that could and likely will change up or down. Oh yes .5 is a huge difference but we had a bit less than that a few hrs ago and lost power.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 14, 2021 4:02 pm

[quote="amugs"]
Not including the latest warning advisories just added in test few hours[/quote.i know incredible. Biggest area of winter storm warnings I can remember. Insane.
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Post by hyde345 Sun Feb 14, 2021 4:03 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:HRRR ice accumulation

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 7 Zr-acc-us-ne

NWS might be too aggressive for parts of NNJ but conservative N&W

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 7 ERH-Ice

I agree with you.  I think the highest risk is west of the Fall Line especially in areas of > 500' ASL.  I'm fully expecting between .25" - .5" IMBY towards the Lehigh Valley.  NEPA should expect > .5" as should NW NJ, and LHV IMO.  The ground has been cold for a really long time and that must be considered in this setup.
Frank since when does the HRRR go out so far? I only see out to hour 18 on pivotal weather.  Looks like thats hour 46.

The HRRR goes out to 48 hours at 00z, 06z,12z, and 18z.
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 14, 2021 4:08 pm

I just hope this ice busts on the low side. You never know.

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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 14, 2021 4:11 pm

The good news is storms this winter seem to trend NW at the end; but if this shifts 25-50 miles SE this could be disastrous for the I-95 metro corridor.
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Post by hyde345 Sun Feb 14, 2021 4:14 pm

@jimv45 wrote:Winter storm watch just issued for my area, heavy mix freezing rain not good!!!

Me too. Albany seems to think most falls as sleet. They only have me getting about .20-.25 ZR. You probably get even less ZR than me.
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Post by jimv45 Sun Feb 14, 2021 4:20 pm

I hope it's more sleet! Might get some snow as well, Thursday looks like a good thump before changeover.

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Post by hyde345 Sun Feb 14, 2021 4:33 pm

@jimv45 wrote:I hope it's more sleet! Might get some snow as well, Thursday looks like a good thump before changeover.

Yeah, you will get some snow in the beginning(1-2 inches probably) then lots of sleet and some ZR. Thursday definitely looks like more snow by us.
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Post by TheAresian Sun Feb 14, 2021 4:40 pm

NWS finally switched me over from watch to warning. I think Binghamton is a lot more conservative with those things.

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Post by TheAresian Sun Feb 14, 2021 4:50 pm

18z GFS dragging the ice NW.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 7 Icemap10

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Post by Irish Sun Feb 14, 2021 5:00 pm

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY...

WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of one tenth to two tenths of an inch.

WHERE...Portions of central New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

WHEN...From 1 PM Monday to 5 AM EST Tuesday.

IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute on Tuesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible power outages.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

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Post by phil155 Sun Feb 14, 2021 6:27 pm

@Irish wrote:...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY...

WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of one tenth to two tenths of an inch.

WHERE...Portions of central New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

WHEN...From 1 PM Monday to 5 AM EST Tuesday.

IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute on Tuesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible power outages.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Same for my area in Middlesex County

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Post by elkiehound Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:02 pm

https://www.state.nj.us/transportation/uploads/comm/news/details/comm_np_20210214_194632_NJDOTIssuesCommercialVehicleRestrictionbeginningMonday8am.pdf?fbclid=IwAR2WxZSCF-TgV2fbdulufuXjft2XjFaOMii0hgTbT23rWjbhAeS21tvr7T8

I thought the daytime tomorrow was dry?
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Post by snowday111 Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:35 pm

Wow - When was that put out?

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Post by elkiehound Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:47 pm

@snowday111 wrote:Wow - When was that put out?

8:45 PM
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:00 pm

@TheAresian wrote:18z GFS dragging the ice NW.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 7 Icemap10

Don't take this verbatim as is. As we have seen just before gametime we se a SE tick/ shift.aos CAD is poorly underpowered by models. Go with Obs and nowcasting to see what is what as we roll tomorrow.
Some light freezing drizzle as modeled may start tomorrow ahead the main storm.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:09 pm

Wow

this ice storm is going to encompass a huge area to some extent at least. This is percentage of at least .10 or greater of frz, even nyc has a 50-60% chance.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 7 Weathe11
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:19 pm

So what exactly am I looking at tomorrow to determine the severeity of icing if at all? temps? wet bulb, surface temps? I mean i dont think wx underground does surface temps
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:25 pm

33 here right now, 6 degree drop from earlier in evening.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:30 pm

3km Nam takes the main swath of ice even furthern north, wow by 12z might be in syracuse! Not to be taken verbatim as mugs said but if it is right this is a non event here (NYC metro and just north and west., a driving rain is all.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 7 Zr_acc12
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Post by Fededle22 Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:45 pm

What is causing this NW shift?
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Post by Taffy Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:04 am

WWA issued 4am for Hopkinton MA. 30 feels like 27. Winds at 3N.
Snow expected starting around 1pm until 10pm and then the icy mix. It's going to be a slopfest up here starting around 7pm.


Be careful out there today/tonight my weather peeps.


ISSUED: 3:54 AM FEB. 15, 2021 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total combined snow and
sleet accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of
up to one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts, Central Middlesex MA, Western Essex
MA and Western Norfolk MA Counties. In Rhode Island, Northwest
Providence RI and Western Kent RI Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday.
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Post by dkodgis Mon Feb 15, 2021 8:21 am

Surprisingly a bit of s glaze out there. A precursor. 23 degrees
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 15, 2021 8:36 am

I'm hearing rain outside but it's 30 so it may b frz not sure.
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