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FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:42 am

@Zhukov1945 wrote:Possibly ignorant / basic question but what is the "Fall Line"?

It separates coastal flat land versus more elevated areas. It pretty much runs the I-95 and often times surface temperatures are much more influenced (raised) by easterly fetch off Atlantic in areas east of the fall line versus west.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:21 am

This is not a imby question but it has to do with what you said about frozen ground. I see the maps show generally where I am at 0.1 to 0.25 which is bad enough but I dunno something tells me the main area may spread a bit further south. Reason? It was stated the ground being cold will aid. Well things are the coldest they have been here in as long as I remember because we have ice skating at tibbetts brook park. That lake never freezes over enough to skate. 0.1 to 0.25 is bad enough but i wouldnt be surprised to see more in the lower hudson valley which i recently learned westchester is actually a part of, i always thought it was putnam and north but its not. Don't think NYC is going to see alot but elevated cold surfaces will likely see icing to some extent otherwise too warm ground with subway. I also understand elevation will play a role and that southern westchester is far lower than northern westchester, I 287 often is the R/S line in winter storms. We will see what happens, this will likely be a nowcast. It is good it comes overnight but by 8am traffic is very busy so we could have a lot issues if it doesnt get al lwashed away but the change to all rain.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:24 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:46 am

If NWS is playing this on the safer side its already not good, not crushingly bad but bad enough to cause really hard driving and some weighed down tree limbs and power lines, i cannot be lieve the amounts is showing for ther north, that would be major problems.  And again could cause trickly down power issues too. I do not believe NYC sees more than just to its north, that area of light yellow between NYC and white plains makes no sense.

1st call NWS

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 6 Stormt10
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:12 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:HRRR ice accumulation

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 6 Zr-acc-us-ne

NWS might be too aggressive for parts of NNJ but conservative N&W

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 6 ERH-Ice

I agree with you.  I think the highest risk is west of the Fall Line especially in areas of > 500' ASL.  I'm fully expecting between .25" - .5" IMBY towards the Lehigh Valley.  NEPA should expect > .5" as should NW NJ, and LHV IMO.  The ground has been cold for a really long time and that must be considered in this setup.
Frank since when does the HRRR go out so far? I only see out to hour 18 on pivotal weather. Looks like thats hour 46.
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:59 pm

HREF is VERY concerning. Got this site for this from Sir Walter Drag.
It can be an 8-12 hour icing event N&W of NYC. Any subtle movements of the HP, LP can have major consequences at the surface. This model has been very good with our storms this winter. Tjis is Freezing Rain = yikes
FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 6 Eum3yx10


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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:21 pm

@amugs wrote:HREF is VERY concerning. Got this site for this  from Sir Walter Drag.
It can be an 8-12 hour icing event N&W of NYC. Any subtle movements of the HP, LP can have major consequences at the surface. This model has been very good with our storms this winter. Tjis is Freezing Rain = yikes
FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 6 Eum3yx10

wow this is more agressive right down to the coast with 0.25-.50 thats trouble the blue area even worse, that may be underdone for up there as many other models are showing 1.0+ is that even possible mugs? I just cannot imagine that much ice anywhere in the area north or south, even 0.25+ down to southern westchester and near coastal NJ and CT seems pretty unheard of. So with the usual wobble of the system during the event I guess this will be a rather nowcast situation.  But where the blue is is probably going to see the most icning but it looks like most of us are in for moderate to severe icing per that map.

Edit oh dayumm thats the ensemble mean!! Jesus that means there are likely members that are way more and some way less, is there anyway to see the individual members for that model? I cannot find that model nor have i heard of us using it.
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:18 pm

This is exactly what I expect for MBY. I know the criteria is at a higher bar depending on exactly where you live, but Mt Holly set the bar at .25" for MBY.


Ice Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
315 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

NJZ009-010-PAZ060-101-103-105-151100-
/O.NEW.KPHI.IS.W.0001.210215T2300Z-210216T1500Z/
Hunterdon-Somerset-Berks-Western Chester-Western Montgomery-
Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Flemington, Somerville, Reading,
Honey Brook, Oxford, Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont,
and Perkasie
315 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of
two tenths to three tenths of an inch with up to one inch of
snow and sleet.

* WHERE...Portions of northern New Jersey and east central and
southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
ice. Travel could be extremely difficult. The hazardous
conditions will impact the morning commute on Tuesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. Prepare for possible power outages.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:21 pm

Ice Storm Warning just issued for my area. Could be a dire situation if we get 3/10” ice with an inch of snow/sleet. Power outages and major travel issues Monday night into Tuesday.
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Post by frank 638 Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:21 pm

I wonder if we will get a winter weather Advisory for nyc

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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:22 pm

I think this is the first Ice Storm Warning I’ve ever been under.
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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:24 pm

My Holly issued a Winter WeatherAdvisory, slightly south of the Ice Warning zone, for Philadelphia for 1/10 to 2/10frz. 2/10 will cause enough issues I think.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:28 pm

@frank 638 wrote:I wonder if we will get a winter weather Advisory for nyc
imo we may see a ice storm warning in Westchester. I dunno what our criteria is but it's lower than inland prolly. And heehaw I think those amounts are pretty conservative no?
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:32 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:I wonder if we will get a winter weather Advisory for nyc
imo we may see a ice storm warning in Westchester. I dunno what our criteria is but it's lower than inland prolly. And heehaw I think those amounts are pretty conservative no?

I think they're good for now based on what I see from models. The most sig impacts will be NW NJ, NEPA and LHV by far. They will probably get >= .6" of ice. Let's just hope for more low level warmth, but I'm skeptical due to the state of the surface snowpack.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:32 pm

@billg315 wrote:I think this is the first Ice Storm Warning I’ve ever been under.
yeah I think most up hete never seen that. Scary one says up to .5!! It'll be worse if the snow comes 1st. If it comes after it'll actually be better. But by in far super bad situation. We will have to see where this sets up. Of course Upton doesn't even have a hwo. Yet they show my area getting.1 to.2 as of right now. NYC .09 which I find hard to believe but in this setup posdible.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:33 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:I wonder if we will get a winter weather Advisory for nyc
imo we may see a ice storm warning in Westchester. I dunno what our criteria is but it's lower than inland prolly. And heehaw I think those amounts are pretty conservative no?

I think they're good for now based on what I see from models.  The most sig impacts will be NW NJ, NEPA and LHV by far.  They will probably get >= .6" of ice.  Let's just hope for more low level warmth, but I'm skeptical due to the state of the surface snowpack.
so I'm technically part of lhv u don't think we see any Sig icing? Doesn't need be .5 plus to be a big issue.
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:35 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:I wonder if we will get a winter weather Advisory for nyc
imo we may see a ice storm warning in Westchester. I dunno what our criteria is but it's lower than inland prolly. And heehaw I think those amounts are pretty conservative no?

I think they're good for now based on what I see from models.  The most sig impacts will be NW NJ, NEPA and LHV by far.  They will probably get >= .6" of ice.  Let's just hope for more low level warmth, but I'm skeptical due to the state of the surface snowpack.
so I'm technically part of lhv u don't think we see any Sig icing? Doesn't need be .5 plus to be a big issue.

Elevated areas like Orange County would be my concern. I think lower elevated areas of the LHV will be much less impacted by ice.

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Post by frank 638 Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:37 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:I wonder if we will get a winter weather Advisory for nyc
imo we may see a ice storm warning in Westchester. I dunno what our criteria is but it's lower than inland prolly. And heehaw I think those amounts are pretty conservative no?
ok thank you for the update Just wish this will be a old fashion snowstorm☹😞

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:37 pm

@frank 638 and just like that wwa for southern wc. .1 they say ice we will see. Change to all rain at some point. Would be best case over what they get up north. But I still think posdible we see a bit more than .1 maybe.
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:37 pm

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 6 EuNsVP2UYAIKJY0?format=jpg&name=large

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:39 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:I wonder if we will get a winter weather Advisory for nyc
imo we may see a ice storm warning in Westchester. I dunno what our criteria is but it's lower than inland prolly. And heehaw I think those amounts are pretty conservative no?

I think they're good for now based on what I see from models.  The most sig impacts will be NW NJ, NEPA and LHV by far.  They will probably get >= .6" of ice.  Let's just hope for more low level warmth, but I'm skeptical due to the state of the surface snowpack.
so I'm technically part of lhv u don't think we see any Sig icing? Doesn't need be .5 plus to be a big issue.

Elevated areas like Orange County would be my concern.  I think lower elevated areas of the LHV will be much less impacted by ice.
oh completely agree but I could still see a quarter inch fall here b4 rain. Just my 2 cents. They are screwed up there. Hoping for you guys as .6 will cause a ton outages.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:40 pm

@amugs wrote:FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 6 EuNsVP2UYAIKJY0?format=jpg&name=large
well if tgats true we don't got much to worry bout down here except slick roads and sidewalks. But wow up north.
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:41 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:I wonder if we will get a winter weather Advisory for nyc
imo we may see a ice storm warning in Westchester. I dunno what our criteria is but it's lower than inland prolly. And heehaw I think those amounts are pretty conservative no?

I think they're good for now based on what I see from models.  The most sig impacts will be NW NJ, NEPA and LHV by far.  They will probably get >= .6" of ice.  Let's just hope for more low level warmth, but I'm skeptical due to the state of the surface snowpack.
so I'm technically part of lhv u don't think we see any Sig icing? Doesn't need be .5 plus to be a big issue.

Elevated areas like Orange County would be my concern.  I think lower elevated areas of the LHV will be much less impacted by ice.
oh completely agree but I could still see a quarter inch fall here b4 rain. Just my 2 cents. They are screwed up there. Hoping for you guys as .6 will cause a ton outages.

Good chance your area should get .25" of ice. But as you know doubling that value to .5" is almost exponential in terms of impact. Maybe not exponential, but more than linear that's for sure.

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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:46 pm

@amugs wrote:FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 6 EuNsVP2UYAIKJY0?format=jpg&name=large

Wowzers. Not good.
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Post by TheAresian Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:51 pm

Usually, when the frontier does better than the coast I'm happy for me and bummed for you. Happy now is just hoping any damage is minimal. I didn't know Ice Storm Warnings even existed. I assumed they would be included with Winter Storm Warnings.

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Post by amugs Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:54 pm


Not including the latest warning advisories just added in test few hours

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