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FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

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FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 3 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by aiannone Fri Feb 12, 2021 5:04 pm

GFS not budging on the off the coast solution
FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 3 Pratep21

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 3 Zr_acc10
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 12, 2021 5:09 pm

With the track the GFS had it would have been a lot of snow for the area. The issue is the boundary layer didn't get pulled down far enough from the departing storm so we were left with a bad antecedent air mass. The departing storm meanders and doesn't pull the boundary layer down. It's definitely not an impossibility that snow occurs with this. I think we need to see the other wave move out faster and pull the colder our down.

But you can clearly see how serious this ice threat potential is.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 12, 2021 5:19 pm

@aiannone wrote:GFS not budging on the off the coast solution
FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 3 Pratep21

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 3 Zr_acc10
The ice nudged north a bit too, i forgot who said they thought the ice would be more north, was it mugs?
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Post by GreyBeard Fri Feb 12, 2021 5:49 pm

https://www.weather.gov/images/okx/0212_5pm.png

Thats for sat. night/sunday.

mon. night/tuesday they say more across interior.

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Post by Irish Fri Feb 12, 2021 6:00 pm

Winter Weather Advisory from SAT 1:00 PM EST until SUN 1:00 PM EST

Old Bridge, NJ Weather


Weather Alerts-Old Bridge, NJ
Winter Weather Advisory from SAT 1:00 PM EST until SUN 1:00 PM EST
Action Recommended
Execute a pre-planned activity identified in the instructions
Issued By
Philadelphia - PA, US, National Weather Service
Affected Area
Portions of New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania
Description
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY...

WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of less than one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch.

WHERE...Portions of New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday.

IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible due to icy roadways, especially Saturday evening through Sunday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 12, 2021 10:53 pm

GFS and NAM show sleet from CNJ, the shore and LI tomorrow around 4-8pm.

The Tuesday storm appears to be trending a bit colder. I still have a gut feeling N&W of NYC gets hit pretty hard with snow. That means there is a sleet/ice threat for those just N&W of NYC and NNJ. Let’s see what transpires tomorrow. Very tricky forecast

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:13 pm

MOG GFS is WCS.....

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 3 Pratep11

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 3 Zr_acc10

if this happens verbatim the tristate will be at a halt for who knows how long. The frz pushed north just as stated, if it pushes any further north no one on this board will see snow, even on this one almost no one does.
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Post by elkiehound Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:21 pm

Thoughts on Monday AM icing area if any?
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Post by SENJsnowman Sat Feb 13, 2021 8:11 am

Thankfully, as of now, the Jersey Shore looks to have minimal winter impacts from this storm beyond today. But today could be a bit of a mess. Not quite sure what to make of this hourly forecast. Hoping to get in another few hours of snow fall maybe, before the slop and rain set in?  Gonna salt real well today for sure and plan to stay off the roads once that frz starts and just hunker down (had to look that up, hunker or bunker? apparently, there is no such thing as 'bunker down' unless you hit it into the sand trap- lol).

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 3 3_day10


FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 3 2_13_210

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Post by SENJsnowman Sat Feb 13, 2021 8:29 am

If I'm reading these maps right, I guess this is a pretty understandable recipe for a freezing rain/ice storm (for 3 pm today):

Freezing at higher levels (500mb and 700mb):

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 3 54010

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 3 85011

NOT freezing closer to the surface at the 850 level:

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 3 70010

And then freezing again at the surface:

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 3 Surfac10

Hope that warm nose backs down, but no one seems too hopeful of that... Sad

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 13, 2021 8:43 am

The largest ice threat for Monday night and Tuesday remains EPA, NEPA, LHV and NW NJ. Models have trended warmer and every little bit will help with the severity of the threat. Nonetheless significant to severe icing is possible in those areas. I don't think coastal plain or the immediate I-95 will have significant icing, but maybe some though.

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 13, 2021 8:45 am

@SENJsnowman wrote:If I'm reading these maps right, I guess this is a pretty understandable recipe for a freezing rain/ice storm (for 3 pm today):

Freezing at higher levels (500mb and 700mb):

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 3 54010

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 3 85011

NOT freezing closer to the surface at the 850 level:

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 3 70010

And then freezing again at the surface:

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 3 Surfac10

Hope that warm nose backs down, but no one seems too hopeful of that... Sad

I can see some ice glazing today in the coastal plain. I think further north and west you go it's more sleet and possibly mixed with a bit of snow.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 13, 2021 8:54 am

Yea, this is definitely trending warmer for the coast and N&W, which means N&W is now in the “ice threat” zone. But if this keeps trending we’re all looking at 35 degrees and a plain rain.


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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 13, 2021 9:05 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Yea, this is definitely trending warmer for the coast and N&W, which means N&W is now in the “ice threat” zone. But if this keeps trending we’re all looking at 35 degrees and a plain rain.


That would be my wish actually.

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 13, 2021 9:24 am

What happens with the first two impulses of energy will determine where the Boundary layer sets up.
And what the HP does over Canada. Any slight shift will change things for our area- ice to rain, all ice, snow n ice etc.
Tricky forecast.

Convinced now- Ray is the Mush !!! Hw comes in here after we had a great stretch of winter wx and what looked like a MECS is going to pot!
Luv you Raymond LOL!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 13, 2021 10:08 am

@amugs wrote:What happens with the first two impulses of energy will determine where the Boundary layer sets up.
And what the HP does over Canada. Any slight shift will change things for our area- ice to rain, all ice, snow n ice etc.
Tricky forecast.

Convinced now- Ray is the Mush !!!  Hw comes in here after we had a great stretch of winter wx and what looked like a MECS is going to pot!
Luv you Raymond LOL!

Are we voting to ban him?

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 13, 2021 10:08 am

NAM makes me sad

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 3 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_47

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Post by Fededle22 Sat Feb 13, 2021 10:13 am

So are we now just getting rain for tonight into tomorrow as well as Monday into Tuesday? Just wondering with all the confusion from the models. Will it be safe to be on the roads tonight?
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 13, 2021 10:15 am

GFS and NAM put us out of the picture for snow and any ice concerns with lovely rain to wash away all our nice snow.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 13, 2021 10:19 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:NAM makes me sad

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 3 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_47
Want a irish car bomb? That will make you forget what you have seen. It does suck, I know it was said snow threat is not gone but do these models shift back several hundred miles SE to bring it to where we can snow> Doesnt look likely to me.

Am I good for today and tomorrow, I am confused as there is a WWA for the bronx but not here and thats less than miles from me, is it really going to be that sharp of a cut off for the inch of snow and .10 ice? Or has upton just not pulled the trigger?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 13, 2021 10:21 am

@Fededle22 wrote:So are we now just getting rain for tonight into tomorrow as well as Monday into Tuesday? Just wondering with all the confusion from the models. Will it be safe to be on the roads tonight?

Not much weather is happening over the next 48 hours. The jersey shore, NYC and LI may see some sleet later today into early evening hours, but it’s very light and i don’t see it causing too many issues. The bigger storm moves in Monday but it’s looking like a plain rain. Models are struggling because they can’t figure out the block to the north. If there was a good block then we wouldn’t see the primary low cut to our west. It would do something like the Roodzilla storm where it attempts to cut but the block forces a transfer to the coast. In this scenario, there is a transfer but it’s way too late. That’s because the block is too far north and or weak. Check it out

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 3 Namconus_mslpaNorm_us_47

Lack of 50/50 low and an Atlantic ridge that is expanding into the east coast. It’s a very bad setup for snow.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 3 Gfs_z500a_namer_11

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Post by elkiehound Sat Feb 13, 2021 10:28 am

“ looking like a plain rain”... For the whole area?
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 13, 2021 11:10 am

@elkiehound wrote:“ looking like a plain rain”... For the whole area?
from looking at the models and no analysis yes it looks like the majority of the area except maybe mickey P and Math.
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Post by TheAresian Sat Feb 13, 2021 11:19 am

Unless the Monday storm keeps pushing west, I think I'll do okay with that one. It doesn't look like anybody wins with that second system. Frank mentioned it earlier: that high is all over the place. What exactly causes such erratic movement in a high like that?

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Post by essexcountypete Sat Feb 13, 2021 12:32 pm

So it seems we should skip the generator check, but it may be a good time clear snow and ice from gutters and leaders pipes for the coming rain.

A fast freeze Tuesday night makes it even more important to get everything drained away as quickly as possible.
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