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FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

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Post by TheAresian Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:06 am

I can't remember the last time I was nervous waiting for a winter storm. Waiting to see how much snow you get is a lot of fun compared to waiting to see whether it's snow or sleet or ice.

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:15 am

Temps at 31* here. Expecting minimal ice and more rain. Yuck. These storms have trended NW greatly this winter. IF the block did not erode so quickly we'd have a good Miller B snowstorm and or the PV was more elongated as models once showed.
Good luck to all today n tonight with this.

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Post by TheAresian Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:19 am

mugs, do you think the storm will trend anymore to the NW or does the system appear to be pretty set?

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Post by phil155 Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:32 am

sitting at 34 here in Middlesex county

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:21 am

Straddling this purple line watch out for some icing tonight. If you are to the SE of the line I don't think it'll be much of anything. This trended warmer and that is a really good thing. Even NEPA, LHV, and NW NJ should be < .5" with this. Very good news.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 8 Freezi10

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Post by dkodgis Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:27 am

Good news for up here in Orange county. I see up here it is late for the ice-10 pm-ish to 5 am-ish. Still, things can change on a dime. Thursday is looking better and better for $now.
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:15 pm

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Deepening low pres is progged to track over or near NYC Tue
mrng. This will produce a steadier, locally heavy period of pcpn
Mon ngt, tapering off on Tue. The llvl flow will lock in the
cold air for much of the region tonight. Highest confidence for
no changeover to rain is across Orange and W Passaic, where an
ice storm wrng has been issued. Elsewhere, the advy continues
thru the ngt. The transition to rain will start at the coasts as
usual and gradually transition nwd. The ending times of the
advy were staggered to try to narrow down the ending times.
Across portions of the lwr Hudson Valley and interior CT, there
may be a need to upgrade to a wrng depending on how the sfc
temps play out. The timing of the transition remains uncertain.

Artesian I think we are pretty much set. We have to watch the observations and Meoscale models to see how the low tracks. And jogs NW or SW can have impacts from.15" to .05" or from .05" to .15" tough to call

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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:22 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:Straddling this purple line watch out for some icing tonight.  If you are to the SE of the line I don't think it'll be much of anything.  This trended warmer and that is a really good thing.  Even NEPA, LHV, and NW NJ should be < .5" with this.  Very good news.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 8 Freezi10

Great news indeed for the LHV.Hope the NW trend continues and the icing is brief and light.Don't mind if it's all rain.Thursday will renew any snow pack that is lost tomorrow.
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Post by 2004blackwrx Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:54 pm

so far all the showers coming through here have been rain or freezing rain. Cold out but must be warm up above.

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Post by TheAresian Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:05 pm

@docstox12 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:Straddling this purple line watch out for some icing tonight.  If you are to the SE of the line I don't think it'll be much of anything.  This trended warmer and that is a really good thing.  Even NEPA, LHV, and NW NJ should be < .5" with this.  Very good news.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 8 Freezi10

Great news indeed for the LHV.Hope the NW trend continues and the icing is brief and light.Don't mind if it's all rain.Thursday will renew any snow pack that is lost tomorrow.

Let's not hope too far NW, docs. A few days ago, I was quietly excited because all of the models showed a nice snowfall, Now the GFS, NAM and Euro all have me getting frozen precipitation with the Euro being especially bullish on freezing rain.

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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:28 pm

@TheAresian wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:Straddling this purple line watch out for some icing tonight.  If you are to the SE of the line I don't think it'll be much of anything.  This trended warmer and that is a really good thing.  Even NEPA, LHV, and NW NJ should be < .5" with this.  Very good news.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 8 Freezi10

Great news indeed for the LHV.Hope the NW trend continues and the icing is brief and light.Don't mind if it's all rain.Thursday will renew any snow pack that is lost tomorrow.

Let's not hope too far NW, docs. A few days ago, I was quietly excited because all of the models showed a nice snowfall, Now the GFS, NAM and Euro all have me getting frozen precipitation with the Euro being especially bullish on freezing rain.

Right,Aresian, just the right spot so you get the snow and I get much less ice.
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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:47 pm

36* here and still under an Ice Storm Warning, but the models seem in agreement that the big ice threat has moved northwest (as every storm has this winter). I expect some minor ice issues here at the outset, but mostly rain as the storm progresses. This is one time I'm happy the "jackpot" zone has shifted to my NW.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:05 pm

Looks like down here heehaw we won't be seeing 0.25 as was thought yesterday, you had said it was possible but unless that purple line on that map moves a bit south I think we just see plan rain. I mean it is literally splitting my area in half but thats go be a nowcaster. This appears to have become a non-event for most which is good cuz 0.5+ ice not good.  This could still change as it moves in but I think we are fairly set and no models really matter at this point.  Im actually surprised I still have a WWA, think they may drop them for any counties that have any border to the ocean.  We will see, mother nature always seems to pull a twist as storm sets in. So sad with that heavy rain I won't have any snow left.  It has been a long time since we have had a decent snow pack for 15 days though i'll say.

32 degrees here, not sure what that means in terms of frz, i will say roads are covered in salt so i think only threat will be to sidewalks and anything off the ground if we see any icing.
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:11 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Looks like down here heehaw we won't be seeing 0.25 as was thought yesterday, you had said it was possible but unless that purple line on that map moves a bit south I think we just see plan rain. I mean it is literally splitting my area in half but thats go be a nowcaster. This appears to have become a non-event for most which is good cuz 0.5+ ice not good.  This could still change as it moves in but I think we are fairly set and no models really matter at this point.  Im actually surprised I still have a WWA, think they may drop them for any counties that have any border to the ocean.  We will see, mother nature always seems to pull a twist as storm sets in. So sad with that heavy rain I won't have any snow left.  It has been a long time since we have had a decent snow pack for 15 days though i'll say.

Yep this is a small scale event unless you're in elevated areas (> 500') of NEPA, LHV and NW NJ where there they can still get .5" ice accretion IMO.

What I have circled is the threat area for most folks in this forum.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 8 Iced11

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Post by larryrock72 Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:15 pm

From 5-7am they are calling for Thunderstorms in Ocean county with a temp of 53

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:28 pm

I'm at 34.1/26.5. Even with full wet bulb that gets me to 30ish. My guess is I'll wind up with .05" ice accretion or so. Almost embarrassing to be under and Ice storm Warning, but I get why NWS left the warnings as is.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:36 pm

Currently 31* our high today was 34*...just a raw quiet day
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Post by TheAresian Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:42 pm

18z GFS has me in the freezing rain bullseye. Should I be concerned?

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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:44 pm

31.8* and dropping here. Since the precip is coming in late here, I'm hoping it changes over to heavy rain quickly.

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Post by aiannone Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:09 pm

31.8* here and misting. Might be getting icy soon
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Post by frank 638 Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:13 pm

33*with drizzle I hope we all just get rain not ice please stay safe everyone

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Post by dkodgis Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:18 pm

28 degrees. No rain/snow yet. The storm seems to want to keep holding off until 11 pm or so. I expect nothing but ice. I’m prepared. However ice be ugly business
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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:31 pm

33* so the temp is dropping here. Probably dip below freezing by 7 pm. So should start as some freezing rain before any changeover.
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:45 pm

32.2/29.8. Can only wet bulb to about 31. That's as low as it's going to get in these parts. Light icing possible but that's about it.

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Post by Sloth269 Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:46 pm

Very light rain in Oakland NJ, edge of Bergen/Passaic counties. Freezing on cold surfaces. Temp is 31.

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