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FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 13, 2021 12:38 pm

@essexcountypete wrote:So it seems we should skip the generator check, but it may be a good time clear snow and ice from gutters and leaders pipes for the coming rain.

A fast freeze Tuesday night makes it even more important to get everything drained away as quickly as possible.

I'd check it anyway the 3K NAM looks to be colder and it has a higher resolution - not a bad idea to fire it up Pete - they need it every now and then.

RAP for this evening by about 7PM
FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 4 EuH2figXYAwjUE3?format=png&name=900x900


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Post by amugs Sat Feb 13, 2021 12:50 pm

HRRR 6Pm
FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 4 Hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_7
7PM
FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 4 Hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_8
8PM
FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 4 Hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_9

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 13, 2021 12:52 pm

10PM
FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 4 Hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_11
12AM
FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 4 Hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_13

Water Vapor loops at this time supports this

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 13, 2021 1:21 pm

12Z Euro is colder with severe icing NW of I-95.  High pressure is further east which allows for better CAD.  Models will do their dances, but this icing threat is legit.  If that High is any further east than modeled big trouble that's all I can say.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 4 Euro18

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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 13, 2021 1:26 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:12Z Euro is colder with severe icing NW of I-95.  High pressure is further east which allows for better CAD.  Models will do their dances, but this icing threat is legit.  If that High is any further east than modeled big trouble that's all I can say.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 4 Euro18

Dont forget snowpack on the ground helps keep cold air trapped at the surface. Across LI euro has temps 32-33. very close
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 13, 2021 1:33 pm

@aiannone wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:12Z Euro is colder with severe icing NW of I-95.  High pressure is further east which allows for better CAD.  Models will do their dances, but this icing threat is legit.  If that High is any further east than modeled big trouble that's all I can say.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 4 Euro18

Dont forget snowpack on the ground helps keep cold air trapped at the surface. Across LI euro has temps 32-33. very close

Absolutely. Especially elevated areas of the North Shore.

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 13, 2021 2:00 pm

Hee Haw - people should not in no way poo poo this at this time in the NYC Metro ,NNJ, LHV, EPA, CNJ the LLC cold with a deep snowpack is tough to moderate at the surface folks. May it change to rain thereof course is possibility but damage can be done - 'er on the side of caution at this time.
Walt Drag and Tony Gigi of NWS both in a text thread have started this to us that they are worried about what could be an impactful to significant icing event in NNJ, EPA and LHV and NYC Metro west of NYC not LI as much.
Another view of EURO 4 panel precipitation

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 4 EuIFgXGXcAAPuPp?format=png&name=medium

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 4 EuIFfFWXAAYP0Rq?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by essexcountypete Sat Feb 13, 2021 2:05 pm

@amugs wrote:
@essexcountypete wrote:So it seems we should skip the generator check, but it may be a good time clear snow and ice from gutters and leaders pipes for the coming rain.

A fast freeze Tuesday night makes it even more important to get everything drained away as quickly as possible.

I'd check it anyway the 3K NAM looks to be colder and it has a higher resolution - not a bad idea to fire it up Pete - they need it every now and then.

RAP for this evening by about 7PM
FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 4 EuH2figXYAwjUE3?format=png&name=900x900

I guess it's time to freshen up the gas cans and clear a path Evil or Very Mad
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Post by amugs Sat Feb 13, 2021 2:06 pm

Okay Ice Map and JMAN no IMBY please.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 4 1613552400-NgSJNAf8iQ8


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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 13, 2021 2:16 pm

@amugs wrote:Hee Haw  - people should not in no way poo poo this at this time in the NYC Metro ,NNJ, LHV, EPA, CNJ the LLC cold with a deep snowpack is tough to moderate at the surface folks. May it change to rain thereof course is possibility but damage can be done - 'er on the side of caution at this time.
Walt Drag and Tony Gigi of NWS both in a text thread have started this to us that they are worried about what could be an impactful to significant icing event in NNJ, EPA and LHV and NYC Metro west of NYC not LI as much.
Another view of EURO 4 panel precipitation

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 4 EuIFgXGXcAAPuPp?format=png&name=medium

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 4 EuIFfFWXAAYP0Rq?format=jpg&name=medium

Absolutely. I can tell from past experience in EPA that we ice very well here. Usually just close enough to get the warm tongue at the mid-levels, but depending on one's elevation icing can be a big issue. My hope for this was a deeper layer of cold air for more IP than ZR, but that maybe wishful thinking.

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 13, 2021 2:30 pm

The GEFS is sending me a big signal for ice NW of I-95.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 4 Gefs12



FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 4 Gefs310

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Post by phil155 Sat Feb 13, 2021 2:31 pm

Twc is showing a high(Middlesex County)here Tuesday of 38. I know twc is not necessarily the most accurate but 38 would avoid ice

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 13, 2021 2:38 pm

@amugs wrote:Okay Ice Map and JMAN no IMBY  please.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 4 1613552400-NgSJNAf8iQ8

Why you guys always picking on me? I can see what is shown there havent I been here long enough to know the models aren't go show IMBY? Though that doesn't look good for most including myself lol And as verbatim thats 0.5-0.75 which I have never witnessed and not sure I want to. We will have to see as this wavers back and forth, gonna be a fine line between a sigh relief rain (relatively speaking) or all out major icing. Mugs do have one question, what makes you believe that frz could actually be a issue for heat island? I recall having had icing before but hit the south bronx into NYC and it was just rain. Its very unusual for NYC to anything sig.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 13, 2021 2:43 pm

@essexcountypete wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@essexcountypete wrote:So it seems we should skip the generator check, but it may be a good time clear snow and ice from gutters and leaders pipes for the coming rain.

A fast freeze Tuesday night makes it even more important to get everything drained away as quickly as possible.

I'd check it anyway the 3K NAM looks to be colder and it has a higher resolution - not a bad idea to fire it up Pete - they need it every now and then.

RAP for this evening by about 7PM
FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 4 EuH2figXYAwjUE3?format=png&name=900x900

I guess it's time to freshen up the gas cans and clear a path Evil or Very Mad
This is why I was confused at there being no WWA for my area, no this isn't a IMBY question but by most hi-res models this weather tonight makes it well into southern westchester. I did note they put salt brine down at least. Also I think that ice map mugs posted is from tonight till tuesday no? So at least it isn't all at once.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 13, 2021 2:47 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Hee Haw  - people should not in no way poo poo this at this time in the NYC Metro ,NNJ, LHV, EPA, CNJ the LLC cold with a deep snowpack is tough to moderate at the surface folks. May it change to rain thereof course is possibility but damage can be done - 'er on the side of caution at this time.
Walt Drag and Tony Gigi of NWS both in a text thread have started this to us that they are worried about what could be an impactful to significant icing event in NNJ, EPA and LHV and NYC Metro west of NYC not LI as much.
Another view of EURO 4 panel precipitation

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 4 EuIFgXGXcAAPuPp?format=png&name=medium

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 4 EuIFfFWXAAYP0Rq?format=jpg&name=medium

Absolutely.  I can tell from past experience in EPA that we ice very well here.  Usually just close enough to get the warm tongue at the mid-levels, but depending on one's elevation icing can be a big issue. My hope for this was a deeper layer of cold air for more IP than ZR, but that maybe wishful thinking.
This verbatim severely effects a huge area. Would not be fun, many power outages, roads impassable, crashes. It is not anything I would wish but am nervous about happening, especially since I park on the street and wouldn't be forst time my car got hit in wx.
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Post by GreyBeard Sat Feb 13, 2021 3:09 pm

Are any of you Jersey folk seeing any precip. yet? Looking at this radar site it shows mixed bag for central to south with snow on the northern fringes already happening.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html

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Post by Irish Sat Feb 13, 2021 3:16 pm

@GreyBeard wrote:Are any of you Jersey folk seeing any precip. yet? Looking at this radar site it shows mixed bag for central to south with snow on the northern fringes already happening.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html

Very light drizzle by me in CNJ.

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 13, 2021 3:19 pm

I'm not really sure what is up with this Ukie model this year.  Very erratic and very disparate from other guidance consistently so.  I used to actually look at it with seriousness at one point.  I'm going to take the under on what it shows for snow.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 4 Ukie12

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Post by GreyBeard Sat Feb 13, 2021 3:22 pm

@Irish wrote:
@GreyBeard wrote:Are any of you Jersey folk seeing any precip. yet? Looking at this radar site it shows mixed bag for central to south with snow on the northern fringes already happening.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html

Very light drizzle by me in CNJ.

Freezing on contact, Irish? Getting any glaze on the donut?

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Post by Fededle22 Sat Feb 13, 2021 3:28 pm

It's so hard to follow what is expected tonight into tomorrow and Monday into Tuesday with the flip flopping of conversations and model maps. It seems like tonight is next to nothing up in NNJ but Monday night sever icing and snow is still on the table. Correct?
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Post by Irish Sat Feb 13, 2021 3:35 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Okay Ice Map and JMAN no IMBY  please.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 4 1613552400-NgSJNAf8iQ8

Why you guys always picking on me? I can see what is shown there havent I been here long enough to know the models aren't go show IMBY? Though that doesn't look good for most including myself lol And as verbatim thats 0.5-0.75 which I have never witnessed and not sure I want to.  We will have to see as this wavers back and forth, gonna be a fine line between a sigh relief rain (relatively speaking) or all out major icing. Mugs do have one question, what makes you believe that frz could actually be a issue for heat island? I recall having had icing before but hit the south bronx into NYC and it was just rain.  Its very unusual for NYC to anything sig.

No offense Jman, just offering my 2 cents since you asked. I've been a part of many message boards before, this, my first weather one. There always seems to be at least 1 guy on every board, whose general personality and ways of contributing, put people off. It can be hard to pinpoint, explain and even harder for you to actually see in yourself. So most, just avoid commenting as it's just an endless, cyclical situation that will never change. In general, you are pretty harmless as others have stated openly on the boards or through PMs. It's like any point in life - HS, college, professionally, socially as adults, on message boards, etc. where you just meet a mix of people. Some you immediately connect with, others, you never will and some have hit or miss moments. All parties deal with things the best they can and hope for the best experience. Ultimately, a school motto we have where I teach is, "You can't say, you can't play." I tell this to kids all the time. I say you are not going to like every person you meet, you don't have to be friends with everyone and you may not want to engage or play with some, but you have to respect all people and not limit their rights to "play" and live their lives.

I myself, have just worked hard on moving on and focusing on just adding when I can and enjoying what so many others contribute, which is more than I could. Because for awhile, focusing on the annoyances, was ruining my experience here and making me want to leave.

Hope that helps.

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Post by Irish Sat Feb 13, 2021 3:37 pm

@GreyBeard wrote:
@Irish wrote:
@GreyBeard wrote:Are any of you Jersey folk seeing any precip. yet? Looking at this radar site it shows mixed bag for central to south with snow on the northern fringes already happening.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html

Very light drizzle by me in CNJ.

Freezing on contact, Irish? Getting any glaze on the donut?

Yes, there is some glaze on the donut.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 13, 2021 3:47 pm

@Irish wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Okay Ice Map and JMAN no IMBY  please.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 4 1613552400-NgSJNAf8iQ8

Why you guys always picking on me? I can see what is shown there havent I been here long enough to know the models aren't go show IMBY? Though that doesn't look good for most including myself lol And as verbatim thats 0.5-0.75 which I have never witnessed and not sure I want to.  We will have to see as this wavers back and forth, gonna be a fine line between a sigh relief rain (relatively speaking) or all out major icing. Mugs do have one question, what makes you believe that frz could actually be a issue for heat island? I recall having had icing before but hit the south bronx into NYC and it was just rain.  Its very unusual for NYC to anything sig.

No offense Jman, just offering my 2 cents since you asked. I've been a part of many message boards before, this, my first weather one. There always seems to be at least 1 guy on every board, whose general personality and ways of contributing, put people off.  It can be hard to pinpoint, explain and even harder for you to actually see in yourself.  So most, just avoid commenting as it's just an endless, cyclical situation that will never change. In general, you are pretty harmless as others have stated openly on the boards or through PMs.  It's like any point in life - HS, college, professionally, socially as adults, on message boards, etc. where you just meet a mix of people.  Some you immediately connect with, others, you never will and some have hit or miss moments. All parties deal with things the best they can and hope for the best experience. Ultimately, a school motto we have where I teach is, "You can't say, you can't play."  I tell this to kids all the time. I say you are not going to like every person you meet, you don't have to be friends with everyone and you may not want to engage or play with some, but you have to respect all people and not limit their rights to "play" and live their lives.

I myself, have just worked hard on moving on and focusing on just adding when I can and enjoying what so many others contribute, which is more than I could. Because for awhile, focusing on the annoyances, was ruining my experience here and making me want to leave.

Hope that helps.
First I appreciate that and your right, but I was just surprised at mugs cuz we know each other well, albeit I do ask IMBY questions but I think my mood this year as you ever so put it as erratic in nature earlier on, has since been pretty steady and not jumping on and off the train. Not just because I have seen good snowfall but also because I have just seen things in another light, as it appears as you stated the same. What is will be what won't won't. I even have seen you get a bit fretty my friend lol. I have hence buried the hatchet with our quarrel and now this can be taken to banter but I did not know you were a teacher!! I was sadly until COVID basically shut the enrollment down to 20% and instead of furlough they just fired most of us. They have since taken several back, and I am still looking for other work. My main area of expertise is social work, so we are both in the helping fields : ) Hope the icing isn't too bad where you are, be super careful, i had a ice storm years ago like 2012 or something and my wife and I took major spills I wacked my head and she hurt her wrist, i actually ended up uncontrollably sliding down the hill in the street in my work cloths (yes you can laugh it probably looked hilarious), I said screw it its not worth it but even getting back into the apartment was a task and a half.  Two cars slid into each other on my hill it was a mess. Main road was okay.
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Post by amugs Sat Feb 13, 2021 4:06 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Irish wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Okay Ice Map and JMAN no IMBY  please.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 4 1613552400-NgSJNAf8iQ8

Why you guys always picking on me? I can see what is shown there havent I been here long enough to know the models aren't go show IMBY? Though that doesn't look good for most including myself lol And as verbatim thats 0.5-0.75 which I have never witnessed and not sure I want to.  We will have to see as this wavers back and forth, gonna be a fine line between a sigh relief rain (relatively speaking) or all out major icing. Mugs do have one question, what makes you believe that frz could actually be a issue for heat island? I recall having had icing before but hit the south bronx into NYC and it was just rain.  Its very unusual for NYC to anything sig.

No offense Jman, just offering my 2 cents since you asked. I've been a part of many message boards before, this, my first weather one. There always seems to be at least 1 guy on every board, whose general personality and ways of contributing, put people off.  It can be hard to pinpoint, explain and even harder for you to actually see in yourself.  So most, just avoid commenting as it's just an endless, cyclical situation that will never change. In general, you are pretty harmless as others have stated openly on the boards or through PMs.  It's like any point in life - HS, college, professionally, socially as adults, on message boards, etc. where you just meet a mix of people.  Some you immediately connect with, others, you never will and some have hit or miss moments. All parties deal with things the best they can and hope for the best experience. Ultimately, a school motto we have where I teach is, "You can't say, you can't play."  I tell this to kids all the time. I say you are not going to like every person you meet, you don't have to be friends with everyone and you may not want to engage or play with some, but you have to respect all people and not limit their rights to "play" and live their lives.

I myself, have just worked hard on moving on and focusing on just adding when I can and enjoying what so many others contribute, which is more than I could. Because for awhile, focusing on the annoyances, was ruining my experience here and making me want to leave.

Hope that helps.
First I appreciate that and your right, but I was just surprised at mugs cuz we know each other well, albeit I do ask IMBY questions but I think my mood this year as you ever so put it as erratic in nature earlier on, has  since been pretty steady and not jumping on and off the train. Not just because I have seen good snowfall but also because I have just seen things in another light, as it appears as you stated the same.  What is will be what won't won't. I even have seen you get a bit fretty my friend lol. I have hence buried the hatchet with our quarrel and now this can be taken to banter but I did not know you were a teacher!! I was sadly until COVID basically shut the enrollment down to 20% and instead of furlough they just fired most of us. They have since taken several back, and I am still looking for other work. My main area of expertise is social work, so we are both in the helping fields : ) Hope the icing isn't too bad where you are, be super careful, i had a ice storm years ago like 2012 or something and my wife and I took major spills I wacked my head and she hurt her wrist, i actually ended up uncontrollably sliding down the hill in the street in my work cloths (yes you can laugh it probably looked hilarious), I said screw it its not worth it but even getting back into the apartment was a task and a half.  Two cars slid into each other on my hill it was a mess. Main road was okay.

I was just surprised at mugs cuz we know each other well, albeit I do ask IMBY questions JMAN luv you brother but you answered it adn admitted to this. This MAYBE an AREA WIDE issue. We have some time to see this and the EPS was a few ticks further as well adn the NAM is the furthest MODEL North making it a driving rainstorm after an initial dump. Every nudge, tick, jump mean teh world of difference in teh NYC metro region
FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 4 EuIWxVsWYAEjQW5?format=jpg&name=large

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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 4 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 13, 2021 4:07 pm

And just like Upton they wait till the last second well here it is. Looks like precip is going to be a bit further north as hi-res models have been showing today, hoping to see some flakes out of it. Nothing too crazy, theres WSW going up way to the north, guessing thats for Mon/Tues.

Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
336 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
up to one inch and ice accumulations of less than a tenth of an
inch.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening until 10 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible due to icy
roadways, especially tonight into early Sunday.

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