Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

by **TheAresian** Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:24 am

heehaw453 wrote:The 12Z GFS shows just how precarious this is right now. The baroclinic zone sets up shop just a little (150 miles) to our NW. The mid level storms are a bit too far north too since the zone sets up too far north. Taken verbatim the threat is ice from this and not too much snow unless you're well north of I-84 or I-81 above Scranton.

I think the threat for severe icing is NW of I-95 is real because I believe mid-levels (4000-5000 feet ASL) are going to torch, but low level coldness will hold strong NW of I-95.

I've seen this movie before and it usually has a bad ending.

I know it's a little too far out to be looking at right now, but it looks like this movie might have a sequel a few days later. How can what happens this storm impact what happens next storm, if at all?

by **amugs** Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:31 am

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 EuCbaMSXcAcfNnB?format=jpg&name=medium

Both storms 12 Z GFS - amazing we went from a full blown snowstorm to a slop fest - MJO wave 7 at play here and moderate Nina in Feb(?)

As Walt Drag has said he believes the snow axis is the I 84 and North Corridor. /interior. I personally do not like this trend - we were to have a piece of PV just west of us in the Lake Michigan area to Erie that would have pushed the cold deep into the MA, we have it stuck in the Plains and it tries to bleed east with very cold air over the top. We have as Scott pointed out a MJO wave in Phase 7 which in a NINA is warm but the -AO/NAO couplet has fought that off for weeks now. It’s been a moderate Nina, we have the AO and NAO retreating and allowing more SE Ridge. We have lost basically 3 storms this week that WERE showing SECS plus snowstorms, did we snow yes but not nearly to the advertisement of the models (plural).
GFS a show snizzle and even rain on Sunday into Monday now and then after the storm departs we go into single digits that night = rapid freeze?

Time will tell but the trends are not there for a snowstorm but rather an ice storm at this time

by **amugs** Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:36 am

aiannone wrote:

Temps during heaviest precip

Aye Caramba after teh storm Jesus mother of mercy cold

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Gfs_T2m_neus_21

by **heehaw453** Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:41 am

amugs wrote:

Both storms 12 Z GFS - amazing we went from a full blown snowstorm to a slop fest - MJO wave 7 at play here and moderate Nina in Feb(?)

As Walt Drag has said he believes the snow axis is the I 84 and North Corridor. /interior. I personally do not like this trend - we were to have a piece of PV just west of us in the Lake Michigan area to Erie that would have pushed the cold deep into the MA, we have it stuck in the Plains and it tries to bleed east with very cold air over the top. We have as Scott pointed out a MJO wave in Phase 7 which in a NINA is warm but the -AO/NAO couplet has fought that off for weeks now. It’s been a moderate Nina, we have the AO and NAO retreating and allowing more SE Ridge. We have lost basically 3 storms this week that WERE showing SECS plus snowstorms, did we snow yes but not nearly to the advertisement of the models (plural).
GFS a show snizzle and even rain on Sunday into Monday now and then after the storm departs we go into single digits that night = rapid freeze?

Time will tell but the trends are not there for a snowstorm but rather an ice storm at this time

I believe the GFS is being too far south with the icing. I think if you move what it's showing about 50/75 miles NW that's where the bulls eye for ice will be. The setup screams EPA/NEPA, NW NJ and LHV for ice to me. I could also see North Shore of LI getting iced. I think sig snows are closer to MHV and closer to Poughkeepsie. I truly hope I'm wrong.

by **amugs** Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:42 am

CMS just pushed the Vortex further west adn the GEFS have moved further west as well - NOT GOOD TRENDS we want to see - this s pure rain look for the entire area!
CMC
FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 500hv.conus

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 500hv.conus

GFS

GEFS

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Gfs-ens_z500_vort_us_fh72_trend.gif.93fd297cba067c0a1038a9ee8660daaa

This allows the storm to cut to our west a bit more rushing in the warm air, cold will hold on but not for long with this.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_17

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_17

by **heehaw453** Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:46 am

I think models are doing their usual dance at this range and will settle back a bit more easterly. Get your salt ready if you are in the interior.

by **amugs** Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:49 am

heehaw453 wrote:
amugs wrote:

Both storms 12 Z GFS - amazing we went from a full blown snowstorm to a slop fest - MJO wave 7 at play here and moderate Nina in Feb(?)

As Walt Drag has said he believes the snow axis is the I 84 and North Corridor. /interior. I personally do not like this trend - we were to have a piece of PV just west of us in the Lake Michigan area to Erie that would have pushed the cold deep into the MA, we have it stuck in the Plains and it tries to bleed east with very cold air over the top. We have as Scott pointed out a MJO wave in Phase 7 which in a NINA is warm but the -AO/NAO couplet has fought that off for weeks now. It’s been a moderate Nina, we have the AO and NAO retreating and allowing more SE Ridge. We have lost basically 3 storms this week that WERE showing SECS plus snowstorms, did we snow yes but not nearly to the advertisement of the models (plural).
GFS a show snizzle and even rain on Sunday into Monday now and then after the storm departs we go into single digits that night = rapid freeze?

Time will tell but the trends are not there for a snowstorm but rather an ice storm at this time

I believe the GFS is being too far south with the icing. I think if you move what it's showing about 50/75 miles NW that's where the bulls eye for ice will be. The setup screams EPA/NEPA, NW NJ and LHV for ice to me. I could also see North Shore of LI getting iced. I think sig snows are closer to MHV and closer to Poughkeepsie. I truly hope I'm wrong.

I78/80 N for icing the trends are not good for wintry weather and I know some will rejoice if it plain rain but will also cry when they see the EPO go Positive and AO and NAO retreat with MJO wave in 7 looking to circle into 6. Not there yet of course.

We have to see how they handle this next feature which seems to be dying out as well. Sorry but not all into this as I see it now going to be a headache for sure but lets see how the next set of model runs go through 6Z manana morning. Model dance at play - need a huge 100 mile jump SE to salvage many from slop and ice.

by **sroc4** Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:59 am

Every 12z thus far has been drastically diff from one another at 500. I mean night and day different between one key feature or another. I think we are going to need to be patient on this one.

by bobjohnsonforthehall Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:16 pm

What is the start time for whatever falls? Flemington area anyway.

by **algae888** Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:24 pm

Well we have the ukie on board. 6 to 12" of snow. Models are all over the place.

by **heehaw453** Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:28 pm

sroc4 wrote:Every 12z thus far has been drastically diff from one another at 500. I mean night and day different between one key feature or another. I think we are going to need to be patient on this one.

100% Agree. I also think the Saturday night wave offshore will affect how east the High positions itself. Just don't care one bit for today's model runs from any of the providers.

by **sroc4** Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:59 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:What is the start time for whatever falls? Flemington area anyway.

Too much variability for me to say at this point Bob.

by **jmanley32** Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:33 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
amugs wrote:

Both storms 12 Z GFS - amazing we went from a full blown snowstorm to a slop fest - MJO wave 7 at play here and moderate Nina in Feb(?)

As Walt Drag has said he believes the snow axis is the I 84 and North Corridor. /interior. I personally do not like this trend - we were to have a piece of PV just west of us in the Lake Michigan area to Erie that would have pushed the cold deep into the MA, we have it stuck in the Plains and it tries to bleed east with very cold air over the top. We have as Scott pointed out a MJO wave in Phase 7 which in a NINA is warm but the -AO/NAO couplet has fought that off for weeks now. It’s been a moderate Nina, we have the AO and NAO retreating and allowing more SE Ridge. We have lost basically 3 storms this week that WERE showing SECS plus snowstorms, did we snow yes but not nearly to the advertisement of the models (plural).
GFS a show snizzle and even rain on Sunday into Monday now and then after the storm departs we go into single digits that night = rapid freeze?so should I prepare for a severe ice storm with outages etc, ill eat all our perishables b4 tursday as we havent gone shop yet and ill get canned goods instead, 50-75 miles north is right over me, seems I have been in the sweet spot (not so much for this) in all storms.

Time will tell but the trends are not there for a snowstorm but rather an ice storm at this time

I believe the GFS is being too far south with the icing. I think if you move what it's showing about 50/75 miles NW that's where the bulls eye for ice will be. The setup screams EPA/NEPA, NW NJ and LHV for ice to me. I could also see North Shore of LI getting iced. I think sig snows are closer to MHV and closer to Poughkeepsie. I truly hope I'm wrong.

If the ice line on GFS moves 75 miles north that will put my area in the thick of it, never seen that much fzr before and i am sure it would be aweful, gonna hold off on buying any perishables until closer to tuesday as this is a very volitile set up as scott stated.

by **heehaw453** Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:46 pm

The 12Z Euro continues the theme of the storm lifting to our west. The 500 mb trough is negatively tilted way too early for this thing and that's why it shows it lifting way west. The transfer won't matter much with a trough tilt like that as the mid-level warmth with rush in. It's an absolute mess in terms of trying to get sig snowfall for the area and lends itself to icing NW of I-95. Until I see something dramatically different on guidance the ice threat remains in full force for NW of I-95.

by **heehaw453** Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:55 pm

Terrible scenario right here. I also think the Euro is way too warm at the surface and think it's going to be much colder as I think the H will be further east supplying colder air.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Euro17

by **phil155** Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:57 pm

might be a foolish question and for that I apologize but for areas closer to I-95 what is the general thinking at this point or is it still too soon to have a real clear idea

by **heehaw453** Fri Feb 12, 2021 2:00 pm

phil155 wrote:might be a foolish question and for that I apologize but for areas closer to I-95 what is the general thinking at this point or is it still too soon to have a real clear idea

Not a foolish question at all. I wish I knew, but I believe I-95 is also under an ice threat with this. I'd say Jersey Shore/NYC not so much but anything along and NW I-95 is under a threat for ice, possibly severe the further NW you go.

by **jmanley32** Fri Feb 12, 2021 2:21 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Terrible scenario right here. I also think the Euro is way too warm at the surface and think it's going to be much colder as I think the H will be further east supplying colder air.

so rain for coast on that run but drop that red 20 miles south and I'm in trouble as well as many. That's bad for doc and cp as they live in a lot of treed areas. I do too but not as much as up there. I think this is gonna end up being somewhat on a now cast. We haven't seen a ice warning in these parts in any time that I recall. 1994 I was in CT too far back to remember.

by elkiehound Fri Feb 12, 2021 2:26 pm

What has to happen for the rain line to move further inland?

by **TheAresian** Fri Feb 12, 2021 2:45 pm

I think the storm has to cut. The further inland the storm travels, the more likely to get rain. But with the cold to the north, I'm not sure how far west it would have to cut. I suspect one of the more knowledgeable members of the board could give some idea.

by **heehaw453** Fri Feb 12, 2021 3:15 pm

I think a large part of what happens is based on how far south the boundary layer gets dragged down. The exiting storm as shown needs to pull away and drag the boundary layer further SE. I think that will help with the wave spacing and help guide the storm further E than W. What is occurring is this storm is stalling out which messes up the wave spacing and keeps the boundary layer NW. Probably due to the Atlantic ridge pressing up against it. That Atlantic ridge means business and it's been my concern with this setup. I also believe the ridge is in response to MJO 7.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Ridge11

by **TheAresian** Fri Feb 12, 2021 3:53 pm

For purposes of my edification, is the boundary layer the same as the 540 line?

by **lglickman1** Fri Feb 12, 2021 3:58 pm

So is the chance of all snow down to the coast long gone?

by **SENJsnowman** Fri Feb 12, 2021 3:59 pm

WWA raised by Mt Holly for Mixed wintry precip. Lg, I did note that the chances for a daytime front end thump appear to growing...

by **jimv45** Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:09 pm

Albany weather center is keeping me at the moment mostly snow for Tuesday and Thursday in Ulster, just don't want that ice if that is to happen just give me rain!

by **sroc4** Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:42 pm

lglickman1 wrote:So is the chance of all snow down to the coast long gone?

No not gone

by **jmanley32** Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:57 pm

Wow VA got quite the ice storm warning, 0.25-0.5 locally more. Its crazy how much of the US has had severe icing past few days.

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