NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

+37
1190ftalt
Sloth269
weatherwatchermom
larryrock72
2004blackwrx
docstox12
Taffy
snowday111
hyde345
toople
Joe Snow
Vinnydula
dkodgis
Zhukov1945
Dunnzoo
Fededle22
Irish
GreyBeard
jimv45
SENJsnowman
lglickman1
elkiehound
phil155
algae888
bobjohnsonforthehall
sroc4
TheAresian
aiannone
heehaw453
CnWestMilford76
Scullybutcher
frank 638
billg315
essexcountypete
jmanley32
amugs
Frank_Wx
41 posters

Page 2 of 10 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10  Next

Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by amugs Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:36 am

@aiannone wrote:FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 14843110

Temps during heaviest precip
FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Gfs_t211

Aye Caramba after teh storm Jesus mother of mercy cold

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Gfs_T2m_neus_21

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12383
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:41 am

@amugs wrote:FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 EuCbaMSXcAcfNnB?format=jpg&name=medium

Both storms 12 Z GFS - amazing we went from a full blown snowstorm to a slop fest - MJO wave 7 at play here and moderate Nina in Feb(?)

As Walt Drag has said he believes the snow axis is the I 84 and North Corridor. /interior. I personally do not like this trend - we were to have a piece of PV just west of us in the Lake Michigan area to Erie that would have pushed the cold deep into the MA, we have it stuck in the Plains and it tries to bleed east with very cold air over the top. We have as Scott pointed out a MJO wave in Phase 7 which in a NINA is warm but the -AO/NAO couplet has fought that off for weeks now. It’s been a moderate Nina, we have the AO and NAO retreating and allowing more SE Ridge. We have lost basically 3 storms this week that WERE showing SECS plus snowstorms, did we snow yes but not nearly to the advertisement of the models (plural).
GFS a show snizzle and even rain on Sunday into Monday now and then after the storm departs we go into single digits that night = rapid freeze?

Time will tell but the trends are not there for a snowstorm but rather an ice storm at this time

I believe the GFS is being too far south with the icing. I think if you move what it's showing about 50/75 miles NW that's where the bulls eye for ice will be. The setup screams EPA/NEPA, NW NJ and LHV for ice to me. I could also see North Shore of LI getting iced. I think sig snows are closer to MHV and closer to Poughkeepsie. I truly hope I'm wrong.

heehaw453

Posts : 1599
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by amugs Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:42 am

CMS just pushed the Vortex further west adn the GEFS have moved further west as well - NOT GOOD TRENDS we want to see - this s pure rain look for the entire area!
CMC
FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 500hv.conus

GFS
FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 500hv.conus

GEFS
FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Gfs-ens_z500_vort_us_fh72_trend.gif.93fd297cba067c0a1038a9ee8660daaa

This allows the storm to cut to our west a bit more rushing in the warm air, cold will hold on but not for long with this.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_17

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12383
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:46 am

I think models are doing their usual dance at this range and will settle back a bit more easterly. Get your salt ready if you are in the interior.

heehaw453

Posts : 1599
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by amugs Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:49 am

@heehaw453 wrote:
@amugs wrote:FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 EuCbaMSXcAcfNnB?format=jpg&name=medium

Both storms 12 Z GFS - amazing we went from a full blown snowstorm to a slop fest - MJO wave 7 at play here and moderate Nina in Feb(?)

As Walt Drag has said he believes the snow axis is the I 84 and North Corridor. /interior. I personally do not like this trend - we were to have a piece of PV just west of us in the Lake Michigan area to Erie that would have pushed the cold deep into the MA, we have it stuck in the Plains and it tries to bleed east with very cold air over the top. We have as Scott pointed out a MJO wave in Phase 7 which in a NINA is warm but the -AO/NAO couplet has fought that off for weeks now. It’s been a moderate Nina, we have the AO and NAO retreating and allowing more SE Ridge. We have lost basically 3 storms this week that WERE showing SECS plus snowstorms, did we snow yes but not nearly to the advertisement of the models (plural).
GFS a show snizzle and even rain on Sunday into Monday now and then after the storm departs we go into single digits that night = rapid freeze?

Time will tell but the trends are not there for a snowstorm but rather an ice storm at this time

I believe the GFS is being too far south with the icing.  I think if you move what it's showing about 50/75 miles NW that's where the bulls eye for ice will be.  The setup screams EPA/NEPA, NW NJ and LHV for ice to me.  I could also see North Shore of LI getting iced.  I think sig snows are closer to MHV and closer to Poughkeepsie.  I truly hope I'm wrong.
I78/80 N for icing the trends are not good for wintry weather and I know some will rejoice if it plain rain but will also cry when they see the EPO go Positive and AO and NAO retreat with MJO wave in 7 looking to circle into 6. Not there yet of course.

We have to see how they handle this next feature which seems to be dying out as well. Sorry but not all into this as I see it now going to be a headache for sure but lets see how the next set of model runs go through 6Z manana morning. Model dance at play - need a huge 100 mile jump SE to salvage many from slop and ice.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12383
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:59 am

Every 12z thus far has been drastically diff from one another at 500. I mean night and day different between one key feature or another. I think we are going to need to be patient on this one.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6965
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

amugs and heehaw453 like this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:16 pm

What is the start time for whatever falls? Flemington area anyway.
bobjohnsonforthehall
bobjohnsonforthehall

Posts : 279
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2016-10-02
Location : Flemington NJ

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by algae888 Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:24 pm

Well we have the ukie on board. 6 to 12" of snow. Models are all over the place.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5227
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:28 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Every 12z thus far has been drastically diff from one another at 500.  I mean night and day different between one key feature or another.  I think we are going to need to be patient on this one.  

100% Agree. I also think the Saturday night wave offshore will affect how east the High positions itself. Just don't care one bit for today's model runs from any of the providers.

heehaw453

Posts : 1599
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

sroc4 likes this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:59 pm

@bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:What is the start time for whatever falls? Flemington area anyway.

Too much variability for me to say at this point Bob.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6965
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:33 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:
@amugs wrote:FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 EuCbaMSXcAcfNnB?format=jpg&name=medium

Both storms 12 Z GFS - amazing we went from a full blown snowstorm to a slop fest - MJO wave 7 at play here and moderate Nina in Feb(?)

As Walt Drag has said he believes the snow axis is the I 84 and North Corridor. /interior. I personally do not like this trend - we were to have a piece of PV just west of us in the Lake Michigan area to Erie that would have pushed the cold deep into the MA, we have it stuck in the Plains and it tries to bleed east with very cold air over the top. We have as Scott pointed out a MJO wave in Phase 7 which in a NINA is warm but the -AO/NAO couplet has fought that off for weeks now. It’s been a moderate Nina, we have the AO and NAO retreating and allowing more SE Ridge. We have lost basically 3 storms this week that WERE showing SECS plus snowstorms, did we snow yes but not nearly to the advertisement of the models (plural).
GFS a show snizzle and even rain on Sunday into Monday now and then after the storm departs we go into single digits that night = rapid freeze?so should I prepare for a severe ice storm with outages etc, ill eat all our perishables b4 tursday as we havent gone shop yet and ill get canned goods instead, 50-75 miles north is right over me, seems I have been in the sweet spot (not so much for this) in all storms.

Time will tell but the trends are not there for a snowstorm but rather an ice storm at this time

I believe the GFS is being too far south with the icing.  I think if you move what it's showing about 50/75 miles NW that's where the bulls eye for ice will be.  The setup screams EPA/NEPA, NW NJ and LHV for ice to me.  I could also see North Shore of LI getting iced.  I think sig snows are closer to MHV and closer to Poughkeepsie.  I truly hope I'm wrong.
If the ice line on GFS moves 75 miles north that will put my area in the thick of it, never seen that much fzr before and i am sure it would be aweful, gonna hold off on buying any perishables until closer to tuesday as this is a very volitile set up as scott stated.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18381
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:46 pm

The 12Z Euro continues the theme of the storm lifting to our west.  The 500 mb trough is negatively tilted way too early for this thing and that's why it shows it lifting way west.  The transfer won't matter much with a trough tilt like that as the mid-level warmth with rush in.  It's an absolute mess in terms of trying to get sig snowfall for the area and lends itself to icing NW of I-95.  Until I see something dramatically different on guidance the ice threat remains in full force for NW of I-95.

heehaw453

Posts : 1599
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:55 pm

Terrible scenario right here.  I also think the Euro is way too warm at the surface and think it's going to be much colder as I think the H will be further east supplying colder air.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Euro17

heehaw453

Posts : 1599
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by phil155 Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:57 pm

might be a foolish question and for that I apologize but for areas closer to I-95 what is the general thinking at this point or is it still too soon to have a real clear idea

phil155

Posts : 140
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2019-12-16

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 12, 2021 2:00 pm

@phil155 wrote:might be a foolish question and for that I apologize but for areas closer to I-95 what is the general thinking at this point or is it still too soon to have a real clear idea

Not a foolish question at all. I wish I knew, but I believe I-95 is also under an ice threat with this. I'd say Jersey Shore/NYC not so much but anything along and NW I-95 is under a threat for ice, possibly severe the further NW you go.

heehaw453

Posts : 1599
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

phil155 likes this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 12, 2021 2:21 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:Terrible scenario right here.  I also think the Euro is way too warm at the surface and think it's going to be much colder as I think the H will be further east supplying colder air.
FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Euro17
so rain for coast on that run but drop that red 20 miles south and I'm in trouble as well as many. That's bad for doc and cp as they live in a lot of treed areas. I do too but not as much as up there. I think this is gonna end up being somewhat on a now cast. We haven't seen a ice warning in these parts in any time that I recall. 1994 I was in CT too far back to remember.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18381
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by elkiehound Fri Feb 12, 2021 2:26 pm

What has to happen for the rain line to move further inland?
elkiehound
elkiehound

Posts : 56
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2013-12-09
Location : Ringoes NJ

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by TheAresian Fri Feb 12, 2021 2:45 pm

I think the storm has to cut. The further inland the storm travels, the more likely to get rain. But with the cold to the north, I'm not sure how far west it would have to cut. I suspect one of the more knowledgeable members of the board could give some idea.

TheAresian

Posts : 79
Reputation : 10
Join date : 2019-11-13
Location : Painted Post, NY

elkiehound likes this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 12, 2021 3:15 pm

I think a large part of what happens is based on how far south the boundary layer gets dragged down.  The exiting storm as shown needs to pull away and drag the boundary layer further SE.  I think that will help with the wave spacing and help guide the storm further E than W.  What is occurring is this storm is stalling out which messes up the wave spacing and keeps the boundary layer NW. Probably due to the Atlantic ridge pressing up against it. That Atlantic ridge means business and it's been my concern with this setup. I also believe the ridge is in response to MJO 7.

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Ridge11

heehaw453

Posts : 1599
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by TheAresian Fri Feb 12, 2021 3:53 pm

For purposes of my edification, is the boundary layer the same as the 540 line?

TheAresian

Posts : 79
Reputation : 10
Join date : 2019-11-13
Location : Painted Post, NY

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by lglickman1 Fri Feb 12, 2021 3:58 pm

So is the chance of all snow down to the coast long gone?

lglickman1

Posts : 234
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : New Rochelle, NY

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by SENJsnowman Fri Feb 12, 2021 3:59 pm

WWA raised by Mt Holly for Mixed wintry precip. Lg, I did note that the chances for a daytime front end thump appear to growing...

SENJsnowman

Posts : 764
Reputation : 58
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 48
Location : Bayville, NJ

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by jimv45 Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:09 pm

Albany weather center is keeping me at the moment mostly snow for Tuesday and Thursday in Ulster, just don't want that ice if that is to happen just give me rain!

jimv45
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1142
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : Ulster county ny

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:42 pm

@lglickman1 wrote:So is the chance of all snow down to the coast long gone?

No not gone

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6965
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:57 pm

Wow VA got quite the ice storm warning, 0.25-0.5 locally more. Its crazy how much of the US has had severe icing past few days.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18381
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain - Page 2 Empty Re: FEB 13th-16th Snow, Ice and Rain

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 10 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum