February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95

Potential snow/ice event for mainly well NW of I-95.  NW NJ/LHV/NEPA and especially MHV.

Didn't you say yesterday your thinking was I 195 and 1-80 for ice? Now it is well north of I-95? Make up ur mind LOL JK, just confused you changed it overnight. GFS shows pretty bad ice for NNJ across NYC and just north, do you think that continues north and NYC etc just sees rain?

jmanley32 wrote:Didn't you say yesterday your thinking was I 195 and 1-80 for ice? Now it is well north of I-95? Make up ur mind LOL JK, just confused you changed it overnight. GFS shows pretty bad ice for NNJ across NYC and just north, do you think that continues north and NYC etc just sees rain?

All good JMan.  Too early for granular details and it's more coarse grain now.  But I'd say zr/sleet threat interior areas of I-78-I-80 (~.25" ice), sleet with some snow I-80-I-84 (2-4"), and snow with some sleet into the MHV past I-84 (4"+).  Also, areas where I see greater than 4" snowfall potential are elevated areas NEPA/NW NJ > 1200' ASL.  

If the SE ridge is stronger than modelled than all that gets pushed further north accordingly.  Conversely if the SE ridge is beaten down a bit more then slide it further south a bit. My thought now is stronger SE ridge with stronger and further N low pressure.  But I'll hedge for now.

You can probably tell from my lack of posting, but I'm not particularly excited about this one.

Very positive NAO and not much help to bring the cold air down toward the coast. My guess is a low track over or just west of us.

Your biggest totals 6-10" IMO will be north of I-90 from Albany, VT, NH, SE ME. That to me is the sweet spot.

So I’m guessing for the city we are probably looking at snow to wintry mix to rain with A little Snow accumulation

frank 638 wrote:So I’m guessing for the city we are probably looking at snow to wintry mix to rain with A little Snow accumulation

I dunno if we see any prozen precip from what I am hearing, maybe frz. I could be wrong but if Frank is not enthused and VT is getting the goods I could care less lol.

Definitely concerned about low levels on this one for potential stubborn CAD.  Euro has been among the warmer guidance.  Hopefully this is just overdone and plain rain or sleet. Going to have to wait for meso's to get in good range to figure that out.  Probably 00Z tomorrow night.

As Bob said the CAD will be there with the Arctic front. Yes +NAO and a shame because it would have forced this to belly under and give us a SECS to MECS. Now we do not have that but we may have a pretty good wintry mix event from I 80 N.

This looks reasonable to me.  

heehaw453 wrote:Your biggest totals 6-10" IMO will be north of I-90 from Albany, VT, NH, SE ME. That to me is the sweet spot.

Every model has me (20 miles north of 84) getting 6 inches or more before mixing or changeover.

hyde345 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:Your biggest totals 6-10" IMO will be north of I-90 from Albany, VT, NH, SE ME. That to me is the sweet spot.

Every model has me (20 miles north of 84) getting 6 inches or more before mixing or changeover.

And that may happen if the the L tracks a bit south. It'll come down to that SE ridge strength.

GFS a bit colder and big mess w.r.t. to ice.

heehaw453 wrote:GFS a bit colder and big mess w.r.t. to ice.

Great maps, thanks. Much better than pivotal weather.

Hyde I think we could see a nice 6-10 event up here. PLEASE NO ICE!

jimv45 wrote:Hyde I think we could see a nice 6-10 event up here. PLEASE NO ICE!

Haha. I know the last thing you need is ice. Don't think so especially by you. Snow and sleet mostly.

Models def trended colder since 12Z.  If this trend continues EPA will have a sig ice problem.  Hopefully it doesn't.

18Z Euro (note precip is not done at this point)

This is where the NWS believes WSW criteria will be met.  Basically it's your 6/7" line.  I agree with this for now unless there is a clear change in the trajectory of the storm.  I think the sweet spot is north of the I-90 corridor.

heehaw453 wrote:This is where the NWS believes WSW criteria will be met.  Basically it's your 6/7" line.  I agree with this for now unless there is a clear change in the trajectory of the storm.  I think the sweet spot is north of the I-90 corridor.

In NWS Albany zone WSW criteria is 9 inches in 24 hours. 6 inches is likely to be in my backyard north of 84.

hyde345 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:This is where the NWS believes WSW criteria will be met.  Basically it's your 6/7" line.  I agree with this for now unless there is a clear change in the trajectory of the storm.  I think the sweet spot is north of the I-90 corridor.

In NWS Albany zone WSW criteria is 9 inches in 24 hours. 6 inches is likely to be in my backyard north of 84.

Ah ok that makes. Albany may meet the criteria with 7" in < 12 hours too. I'm not sure exactly what the NWS was gunning for on that and it's experimental ATTM. Either way I think you are in a good spot for this one. My point was just where the sweet spot is going to be.

GFS back to its colder and snowy looks again for I78 corridor.  A stronger H and slightly better push from the TPV against the SE ridge.  Slight differences in that interaction will be huge.  I guess there still is a bit to figure out there.

No denying 00z's were colder and trended south with snow chances.

If this surface is correct there will be sig icing in EPA and parts of interior NJ along the I78 corridor.  There will be a lot of mixing south of I84 with sleet, but that doesn't mean snow won't accumulate to 4".   A lot of moisture with this system is the key to that possibility and how fast it comes in will determine accumulations.  I'm hesitant on accumulations > 4" south of I84 at lower elevations regardless of what models are showing due to the track.  Once the snow taints it's really hard to pile up.  Beyond I84 6"+ looks feasible to me.



South of I84 soundings warm nose at 7500' ASL will come in hard and fast with a track like this