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February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95

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February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 Empty February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95

Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 21, 2022 8:41 am

Potential snow/ice event for mainly well NW of I-95.  NW NJ/LHV/NEPA and especially MHV.

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February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 Empty Re: February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95

Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 21, 2022 8:51 am

Didn't you say yesterday your thinking was I 195 and 1-80 for ice? Now it is well north of I-95? Make up ur mind LOL JK, just confused you changed it overnight. GFS shows pretty bad ice for NNJ across NYC and just north, do you think that continues north and NYC etc just sees rain?
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February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 Empty Re: February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95

Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 21, 2022 9:45 am

jmanley32 wrote:Didn't you say yesterday your thinking was I 195 and 1-80 for ice? Now it is well north of I-95? Make up ur mind LOL JK, just confused you changed it overnight. GFS shows pretty bad ice for NNJ across NYC and just north, do you think that continues north and NYC etc just sees rain?

All good JMan.  Too early for granular details and it's more coarse grain now.  But I'd say zr/sleet threat interior areas of I-78-I-80 (~.25" ice), sleet with some snow I-80-I-84 (2-4"), and snow with some sleet into the MHV past I-84 (4"+).  Also, areas where I see greater than 4" snowfall potential are elevated areas NEPA/NW NJ > 1200' ASL.  

If the SE ridge is stronger than modelled than all that gets pushed further north accordingly.  Conversely if the SE ridge is beaten down a bit more then slide it further south a bit. My thought now is stronger SE ridge with stronger and further N low pressure.  But I'll hedge for now.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 21, 2022 10:37 am

You can probably tell from my lack of posting, but I'm not particularly excited about this one.

Very positive NAO and not much help to bring the cold air down toward the coast. My guess is a low track over or just west of us.

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February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 Empty Re: February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95

Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 21, 2022 11:32 am

Your biggest totals 6-10" IMO will be north of I-90 from Albany, VT, NH, SE ME. That to me is the sweet spot.

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Post by frank 638 Mon Feb 21, 2022 11:59 am

So I’m guessing for the city we are probably looking at snow to wintry mix to rain with A little Snow accumulation

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 21, 2022 1:23 pm

frank 638 wrote:So I’m guessing for the city we are probably looking at snow to wintry mix to rain with A little Snow accumulation
I dunno if we see any prozen precip from what I am hearing, maybe frz. I could be wrong but if Frank is not enthused and VT is getting the goods I could care less lol.
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 21, 2022 1:26 pm

Definitely concerned about low levels on this one for potential stubborn CAD.  Euro has been among the warmer guidance.  Hopefully this is just overdone and plain rain or sleet. Going to have to wait for meso's to get in good range to figure that out.  Probably 00Z tomorrow night.


February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 Euroic10

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:35 pm

As Bob said the CAD will be there with the Arctic front. Yes +NAO and a shame because it would have forced this to belly under and give us a SECS to MECS. Now we do not have that but we may have a pretty good wintry mix event from I 80 N.

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February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 Empty Re: February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95

Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:36 pm

This looks reasonable to me.  

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 Natble11

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 Natble12

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February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 Empty Re: February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95

Post by hyde345 Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:12 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Your biggest totals 6-10" IMO will be north of I-90 from Albany, VT, NH, SE ME. That to me is the sweet spot.

Every model has me (20 miles north of 84) getting 6 inches or more before mixing or changeover.
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February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 Empty Re: February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95

Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:14 pm

hyde345 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Your biggest totals 6-10" IMO will be north of I-90 from Albany, VT, NH, SE ME. That to me is the sweet spot.

Every model has me (20 miles north of 84) getting 6 inches or more before mixing or changeover.

And that may happen if the the L tracks a bit south. It'll come down to that SE ridge strength.

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:16 pm

GFS a bit colder and big mess w.r.t. to ice.

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 Gfsice11
February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 Gfssle10
February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 Gfsssn10

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Post by hyde345 Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:27 pm

heehaw453 wrote:GFS a bit colder and big mess w.r.t. to ice.

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 Gfsice11
February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 Gfssle10
February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 Gfsssn10

Great maps, thanks. Much better than pivotal weather.
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Post by jimv45 Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:44 pm

Hyde I think we could see a nice 6-10 event up here. PLEASE NO ICE!

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Post by hyde345 Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:47 pm

jimv45 wrote:Hyde I think we could see a nice 6-10 event up here. PLEASE NO ICE!

Haha. I know the last thing you need is ice. Don't think so especially by you. Snow and sleet mostly.
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February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 Empty Re: February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95

Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 21, 2022 6:39 pm

NWS a bit colder for the 25th storm snow Thurs night then snow to sleet Friday.Right on that 6 inches on the latest map.
Could be our catch up storm jimv45 and Hyde.
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 21, 2022 7:28 pm

Models def trended colder since 12Z.  If this trend continues EPA will have a sig ice problem.  Hopefully it doesn't.

18Z Euro (note precip is not done at this point)
February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 Eurosn28
February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 Eurosl10
February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 Eurozr10

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 21, 2022 7:40 pm

This is where the NWS believes WSW criteria will be met.  Basically it's your 6/7" line.  I agree with this for now unless there is a clear change in the trajectory of the storm.  I think the sweet spot is north of the I-90 corridor.

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 Nws12

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Post by hyde345 Mon Feb 21, 2022 9:18 pm

heehaw453 wrote:This is where the NWS believes WSW criteria will be met.  Basically it's your 6/7" line.  I agree with this for now unless there is a clear change in the trajectory of the storm.  I think the sweet spot is north of the I-90 corridor.

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 Nws12

In NWS Albany zone WSW criteria is 9 inches in 24 hours. 6 inches is likely to be in my backyard north of 84.
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 21, 2022 9:36 pm

hyde345 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:This is where the NWS believes WSW criteria will be met.  Basically it's your 6/7" line.  I agree with this for now unless there is a clear change in the trajectory of the storm.  I think the sweet spot is north of the I-90 corridor.

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 Nws12

In NWS Albany zone WSW criteria is 9 inches in 24 hours. 6 inches is likely to be in my backyard north of 84.

Ah ok that makes. Albany may meet the criteria with 7" in < 12 hours too. I'm not sure exactly what the NWS was gunning for on that and it's experimental ATTM. Either way I think you are in a good spot for this one. My point was just where the sweet spot is going to be.

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 21, 2022 11:24 pm

GFS back to its colder and snowy looks again for I78 corridor.  A stronger H and slightly better push from the TPV against the SE ridge.  Slight differences in that interaction will be huge.  I guess there still is a bit to figure out there.

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 Gfssno12
February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 Gfssle11
February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 Gfszr10

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 Gfstpv10

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Post by hyde345 Mon Feb 21, 2022 11:49 pm

No denying 00z's were colder and trended south with snow chances.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 22, 2022 6:17 am

Compared to the beginning of the month the ridging along the Canadian Rockies into Alaska (-EPO) is the big difference which means this will be a colder soln relative to the prev set up.  The timing of when this moves in that coastal plain is most certainly in the game to waking up to accumulating snow Friday am before a change over as the day progresses.

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 22, 2022 6:54 am

If this surface is correct there will be sig icing in EPA and parts of interior NJ along the I78 corridor.  There will be a lot of mixing south of I84 with sleet, but that doesn't mean snow won't accumulate to 4".   A lot of moisture with this system is the key to that possibility and how fast it comes in will determine accumulations.  I'm hesitant on accumulations > 4" south of I84 at lower elevations regardless of what models are showing due to the track.  Once the snow taints it's really hard to pile up.  Beyond I84 6"+ looks feasible to me.

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 Gfs80

South of I84 soundings warm nose at 7500' ASL will come in hard and fast with a track like this
February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 Soundi13

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