Re: February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95

by **sroc4** Tue Feb 22, 2022 6:17 am

Compared to the beginning of the month the ridging along the Canadian Rockies into Alaska (-EPO) is the big difference which means this will be a colder soln relative to the prev set up. The timing of when this moves in that coastal plain is most certainly in the game to waking up to accumulating snow Friday am before a change over as the day progresses.

by **heehaw453** Tue Feb 22, 2022 6:54 am

If this surface is correct there will be sig icing in EPA and parts of interior NJ along the I78 corridor. There will be a lot of mixing south of I84 with sleet, but that doesn't mean snow won't accumulate to 4". A lot of moisture with this system is the key to that possibility and how fast it comes in will determine accumulations. I'm hesitant on accumulations > 4" south of I84 at lower elevations regardless of what models are showing due to the track. Once the snow taints it's really hard to pile up. Beyond I84 6"+ looks feasible to me.

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 2 Gfs80

South of I84 soundings warm nose at 7500' ASL will come in hard and fast with a track like this

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 2 Soundi13

by **heehaw453** Tue Feb 22, 2022 7:03 am

sroc4 wrote:Compared to the beginning of the month the ridging along the Canadian Rockies into Alaska (-EPO) is the big difference which means this will be a colder soln relative to the prev set up. The timing of when this moves in that coastal plain is most certainly in the game to waking up to accumulating snow Friday am before a change over as the day progresses.

I think pingers will be heard quickly on this one on coastal plain until you are well into CT/RI. Snow/sleet for a few hours though before it becomes more sleet. Just hope the lower column is cold enough to support sleet rather than flipping to zr.

by **jmanley32** Tue Feb 22, 2022 7:09 am

What are us ny'ers just north of NYC looking at? I'm right along across from i80 so I guess it's a toss up? Whether it's snow to sleet or snow to frz? I'm about 20 miles or so south of tappenzee

by **heehaw453** Tue Feb 22, 2022 8:14 am

jmanley32 wrote:What are us ny'ers just north of NYC looking at? I'm right along across from i80 so I guess it's a toss up? Whether it's snow to sleet or snow to frz? I'm about 20 miles or so south of tappenzee

JMan I don't think there's going to be a lot of snow with one. c-2" south of rt 80 and 2-4" north of I80 to I84. The closer you get to I84 the closer to 4". Areas of elevation > 1200' could see > 4" like NEPA/NW NJ. There will be a lot of sleet with this I78 - I80. Freezing rain probably will straddle the I78 and that could be significant > .25".

by **jmanley32** Tue Feb 22, 2022 8:51 am

heehaw453 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:What are us ny'ers just north of NYC looking at? I'm right along across from i80 so I guess it's a toss up? Whether it's snow to sleet or snow to frz? I'm about 20 miles or so south of tappenzee

JMan I don't think there's going to be a lot of snow with one. c-2" south of rt 80 and 2-4" north of I80 to I84. The closer you get to I84 the closer to 4". Areas of elevation > 1200' could see > 4" like NEPA/NW NJ. There will be a lot of sleet with this I78 - I80. Freezing rain probably will straddle the I78 and that could be significant > .25".

Okay so if i draw lines from I-80 across into NY and i84 I fall on the lower end to3wards I-80 but not sign on the line, so some snow? No ice?

by **heehaw453** Tue Feb 22, 2022 9:01 am

jmanley32 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:What are us ny'ers just north of NYC looking at? I'm right along across from i80 so I guess it's a toss up? Whether it's snow to sleet or snow to frz? I'm about 20 miles or so south of tappenzee

JMan I don't think there's going to be a lot of snow with one. c-2" south of rt 80 and 2-4" north of I80 to I84. The closer you get to I84 the closer to 4". Areas of elevation > 1200' could see > 4" like NEPA/NW NJ. There will be a lot of sleet with this I78 - I80. Freezing rain probably will straddle the I78 and that could be significant > .25".

Okay so if i draw lines from I-80 across into NY and i84 I fall on the lower end to3wards I-80 but not sign on the line, so some snow? No ice?

I'd say 1-2" and a lot of sleet. I hope not much zr for you.

by **jmanley32** Tue Feb 22, 2022 9:04 am

heehaw453 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:What are us ny'ers just north of NYC looking at? I'm right along across from i80 so I guess it's a toss up? Whether it's snow to sleet or snow to frz? I'm about 20 miles or so south of tappenzee

JMan I don't think there's going to be a lot of snow with one. c-2" south of rt 80 and 2-4" north of I80 to I84. The closer you get to I84 the closer to 4". Areas of elevation > 1200' could see > 4" like NEPA/NW NJ. There will be a lot of sleet with this I78 - I80. Freezing rain probably will straddle the I78 and that could be significant > .25".

Okay so if i draw lines from I-80 across into NY and i84 I fall on the lower end to3wards I-80 but not sign on the line, so some snow? No ice?

I'd say 1-2" and a lot of sleet. I hope not much zr for you.

well sleet is not as slippery as frz by a long shot, those GFS does show frz into the area, as you stated we need see meso scale models. though they often overdo the extent of frz, though last one ulster county did get hit pretty hard. This is Thursday into Friday right? So I work from home Fridays anyways. : ) Decided to forgo my plans for other reasons.

by **amugs** Tue Feb 22, 2022 9:35 am

This can not be poo poowd in any way for N of I80 even North of l 78. This has ticked more SW over the latest 2 model runs and the warm air tongue has pushed up N towards I 84 as well. Not a good recipe and we have dodged a couple of these this year and looks like it will be our turn.
Snow to ice with rain at the end towards the coast. Time will tell but we are about 64 hours from this event. Let's see what today's runs bring. The Cold air being further S is due to the LP being further SW. And the " Euro" trends have been SW. Went from Binghamton to MD. GFS has been pretty steady being S of us.

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 2 Fmmr_j10

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 2 Fmmr_j11

by **aiannone** Tue Feb 22, 2022 9:39 am

12z NAM has the high parked in the sweet spot with a secondary LP forming south of the area. Uhh ohhh...

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 2 Ref1km20

by **heehaw453** Tue Feb 22, 2022 9:49 am

This looks good to me for the event entirety but I think elevated areas of NW NJ/NEPA can be 4-6". The pingers will come with this one faster than we'd like, but they will come. Does have a tone of moisture though so any delay to those pingers will make a difference in snow totals north of I80.

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 2 Nbm11

by **billg315** Tue Feb 22, 2022 10:35 am

If the models are right on this Friday system, and the Euro and GFS don't seem that far apart, than this ice situation Friday morning may be nothing to sleep on. Would be right in the heart of the morning commute as well.

by **heehaw453** Tue Feb 22, 2022 11:10 am

12Z GFS came in a bit colder. A slightly stronger press from the H due to the TPV pushing down a bit stronger.

My opinion on these maps is they are not going to verify w.r.t. snow. GFS has been all over the place with this storm and has not had a good handle the thermals. But of course if other models jump on board, then I wouldn't discount a consensus.

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 2 Gfssno13

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 2 Gfsice12

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 2 Gfssle12

by **heehaw453** Tue Feb 22, 2022 11:20 am

This is not where you want vort max coming through at 850mb. The damage to the mid-levels is done at this point and the warm nose finds a way to melt the crystals. It doesn't help tremendously that it's trying to reconsolidate at this point off the NJ coast. You don't want the max pushing into NY State Buffalo border like this. That needs to be about 100-150 miles south for these snow maps to make any sense to me.

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 2 Gfs85010

by **jmanley32** Tue Feb 22, 2022 11:29 am

heehaw453 wrote:12Z GFS came in a bit colder. A slightly stronger press from the H due to the TPV pushing down a bit stronger.

My opinion on these maps is they are not going to verify w.r.t. snow. GFS has been all over the place with this storm and has not had a good handle the thermals. But of course if other models jump on board, then I wouldn't discount a consensus.

The ice map was 18z, can u post the 12z?

by **jmanley32** Tue Feb 22, 2022 11:30 am

amugs wrote:This can not be poo poowd in any way for N of I80 even North of l 78. This has ticked more SW over the latest 2 model runs and the warm air tongue has pushed up N towards I 84 as well. Not a good recipe and we have dodged a couple of these this year and looks like it will be our turn.
Snow to ice with rain at the end towards the coast. Time will tell but we are about 64 hours from this event. Let's see what today's runs bring. The Cold air being further S is due to the LP being further SW. And the " Euro" trends have been SW. Went from Binghamton to MD. GFS has been pretty steady being S of us.

That frz on the below maps is no joke, all models have what looks like some pretty serious frz. for NNJ, NYC area and into CT.

by **heehaw453** Tue Feb 22, 2022 11:35 am

jmanley32 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:12Z GFS came in a bit colder. A slightly stronger press from the H due to the TPV pushing down a bit stronger.

My opinion on these maps is they are not going to verify w.r.t. snow. GFS has been all over the place with this storm and has not had a good handle the thermals. But of course if other models jump on board, then I wouldn't discount a consensus.

The ice map was 18z, can u post the 12z?

Oh yeah. you are right. IMO >= .25" ice accretion is on the table.

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 2 Gfsice13

by **heehaw453** Tue Feb 22, 2022 11:43 am

I can wrap my head around this much better based on the vorticity max location at 850/700mb. It just makes more sense even though I think they'll be more snow than what's shown. I'm just not sure what is going on with the GFS. It's bizarre...

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 2 Gem13

by **sroc4** Tue Feb 22, 2022 12:11 pm

heehaw453 wrote:I can wrap my head around this much better based on the vorticity max location at 850/700mb. It just makes more sense even though I think they'll be more snow than what's shown. I'm just not sure what is going on with the GFS. It's bizarre...

I think we will find the gfs is correct for reasons Ill explain when I have some time

by **sroc4** Tue Feb 22, 2022 12:34 pm

It begins with a great antecedant air mass and a westerly flow to the 700mb level as the moisture comes in.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/ne/instant_ptype/1645531200/1645768800-Dts8Odu5OW4.png

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 2 1645768800-JLHzE4yCjvM

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/ne/vort500_z500/1645531200/1645768800-ka00qluqtR0.png

by **sroc4** Tue Feb 22, 2022 12:35 pm

sroc4 wrote:It begins with a great antecedant air mass and a westerly flow to the 700mb level as the moisture comes in.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/ne/instant_ptype/1645531200/1645768800-Dts8Odu5OW4.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/ne/vort500_z500/1645531200/1645768800-ka00qluqtR0.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/ne/vort700_z700/1645531200/1645768800-5cJw7N1GFCA.png

by **heehaw453** Tue Feb 22, 2022 1:07 pm

sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:It begins with a great antecedant air mass and a westerly flow to the 700mb level as the moisture comes in.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/ne/instant_ptype/1645531200/1645768800-Dts8Odu5OW4.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/ne/vort500_z500/1645531200/1645768800-ka00qluqtR0.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/ne/vort700_z700/1645531200/1645768800-5cJw7N1GFCA.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/ne/vort700_z700/1645531200/1645768800-5cJw7N1GFCA.png

I can see that line of thinking but IMO you will get a warm nose between 850-700mb as the max vorticity of the 850mb is really far north. It will be high enough in the column to render sleet and not zr especially north of I78. At least that is my thinking. I would be fully on board if the mid-levels were tracking the way GFS showed several days ago...

by **billg315** Tue Feb 22, 2022 1:14 pm

Well . . . 12Z Euro is an even bigger front-end dump of snow. Generally 4-6" north of I-195 in Central NJ. And then prolonged ice to boot.

by **heehaw453** Tue Feb 22, 2022 1:15 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:It begins with a great antecedant air mass and a westerly flow to the 700mb level as the moisture comes in.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/ne/instant_ptype/1645531200/1645768800-Dts8Odu5OW4.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/ne/vort500_z500/1645531200/1645768800-ka00qluqtR0.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/ne/vort700_z700/1645531200/1645768800-5cJw7N1GFCA.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/ne/vort700_z700/1645531200/1645768800-5cJw7N1GFCA.png

I can see that line of thinking but IMO you will get a warm nose between 850-700mb as the max vorticity of the 850mb is really far north. It will be high enough in the column to render sleet and not zr especially north of I78. At least that is my thinking. I would be fully on board if the mid-levels were tracking the way GFS showed several days ago...

As I try to dispute your theory Euro comes in colder.

by **aiannone** Tue Feb 22, 2022 1:19 pm

12z Euro....

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 2 Sn10_a53

by **sroc4** Tue Feb 22, 2022 1:29 pm

Heehaw we never close off at 850 or 700 and 850's have multi focal vort max's. The front end thump you have 700 screaming out of the west and 850 out of the SW and not S, SE or E like when you get that close 850 low. Larry Cosgrove taught me a long time ago that when you see 700mb out of the west with an over runing event without any of the midl evels closing off it screams of correcting colder and snowier. It would not surprise me if the mid level trends cont we get colder and snowier down to the coast.

by **billg315** Tue Feb 22, 2022 1:31 pm

Def says something that both the GFS and the Euro have lurched in the colder direction at the same time. What that is I don't know. But something. lol.

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