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February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:27 am

sroc4 wrote:Wipers back and forth they go. Have we seen the last of the back and forth, in which case then warmer she goes, or do we go back the other way one last time?  I’m sticking with my colder soln because that’s my bias as well as some of the actual reasoning prev stated.

Totally respect that.

snow aspect
Immediate Jersey Coast Trace up to coating
I-95 up to NYC/SS of LI c-1"
EPA/interior NNJ/NS LI 1-2"
NEPA/LHV/NW NJ (lower elevations < 700') 2-4" with 4-5" above 1200'
MHV 5-7" passed I-84 the closer to I-90 the more
North of I-90 jackpots with 8-12"

Ice aspect
zr straddling the interior I-78 up to .33" elsewhere < .25"
sleet 1/4"-1/2" just for good measure anywhere expect the immediate JC coast



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Post by docstox12 Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:43 am

Looks like the NWS is right with you on this ATM Heehaw.I am right near I 84 so I am hoping to get closer to 4 than 2.Looks like Math up in Albany will be the winner on this one.
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Post by SkiSeadooJoe Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:19 am

I think the daffodils are going win this one down here at the coast  😁February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 6 20220210
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 24, 2022 10:01 am

NAM is too stingy with the snow IMO south of I84.  But you can see it shows the N of I-90 idea for the bigger snows.  I think folks south of the Mass Pike are going to be disappointed with verification.  Possibly up to Boston.

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 6 Nam43

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Feb 24, 2022 10:43 am

68* yesterday and 31* so far today..
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 24, 2022 11:09 am

I am seeing nothing to change my mind so far as to coming back to a colder soln.

FWIW this is the National Blend of models. This has been what my minds eye sees playing out


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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 24, 2022 12:03 pm

WAA coming in hard on the west.  I think central PA State College is going to get the most zr accretion out of this system.

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 6 Waa12

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 24, 2022 12:21 pm

NWS calls good IMO

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 6 Image.png.430804a1d187e7c60ba36af0f8676acf

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 6 NE_Snow.png.f898c20dbfb0807c4d3393b4212298ce

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 6 Image.png.969c110ee8b03e7795bc5a944ee6bbae

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 6 Image.png.120eb3ee449bd7aa463a277a564d3f30

Appetizer anyone??

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 6 1617970533_inxr1kphls(3).gif.3d6c90638581fc044bb8a8891387bd99

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 24, 2022 12:23 pm

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 6 Inxr1Knyca_h

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:05 pm

I got a little bit of light snow/flurries with most recent batch. Currently 33/22

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Post by docstox12 Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:07 pm

27 degrees overcast.NWS steadfast with 3 to 6 here.Nowcast time.Let's see if there is a last minute shift to help us or hurt us.
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:19 pm

Latest 18Z NAM is bringing the 850mb main western vortex through Syracuse. That basically means mixing right at the I90 line and little snow for anything south of I84. I'm not ready to go there yet as it doesn't have support for that type of solution. But i wouldn't categorically discount it though.

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 24, 2022 4:38 pm

HREF has a lot of freezing rain.

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 6 Fmy33x10



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Post by amugs Thu Feb 24, 2022 4:40 pm

HRRR

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 6 Hrrr-nystate-total_snow_10to1-5898400.png.ad03535df139a5cf559fee45312c81ea

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Post by Sparky Sparticles Thu Feb 24, 2022 4:41 pm

SkiSeadooJoe wrote:I think the daffodils are going win this one down here at the coast  😁

No daffys yet up here, but my neighbor's irises popped up purple yesterday. That's always the first sign of spring for me.
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Post by essexcountypete Thu Feb 24, 2022 5:12 pm

Sparky Sparticles wrote:
SkiSeadooJoe wrote:I think the daffodils are going win this one down here at the coast  😁

No daffys yet up here, but my neighbor's irises popped up purple yesterday. That's always the first sign of spring for me.

I believe the flowers that are just popping up now are crocuses. Mine are about to pop. Irises tend to come out in May.
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Post by Taffy Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:14 pm

My town is getting a "whopper" as my daughter likes to call them but here I am back in Jersey missing a great storm. I was planning to head back to Boston tomorrow but New Jersey is stuck with me until Sunday.
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Post by jimv45 Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:57 pm

Still hoping to get 7 or 8 inches out of this before the sleet gets here. I still think this could come in colder then forecasted! My high today was 27 it was supposed to be in the low 30s. Right now 25.

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Post by hyde345 Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:10 pm

jimv45 wrote:Still hoping to get 7 or 8 inches out of this before the sleet gets here. I still think this could come in colder then forecasted! My high today was 27 it was supposed to be in the low 30s. Right now 25.

You should get pretty close to that Jim. Hoping for 6 here before the sleet. NWS talking about 1-2 inch per hour rates so it's going to come down hard. Same thing here with the temps. Forecast high was 33 and only made it to 28. Right now 26. Feels like snow.
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:35 pm

00Z NAM says still be mindful of zr/ip. zr maybe a bit overdone as to what actual accretion will be, but plan on impacts to travel.  i'm not going to post the snow maps as they are very low totals.  Unfortunately I believe it's going to be close to verification based on the synoptics of the storm.

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 6 Namsle11

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 6 Namzr10

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Post by hyde345 Thu Feb 24, 2022 10:01 pm

heehaw453 wrote:00Z NAM says still be mindful of zr/ip.  zr maybe a bit overdone as to what actual accretion will be, but plan on impacts to travel.  i'm not going to post the snow maps as they are very low totals.  Unfortunately I believe it's going to be close to verification based on the synoptics of the storm.

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 6 Namsle11

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 6 Namzr10

I disagree. The qpf of the the 00z nam is so lackluster given the setup and moisture source. .60 just doesn't make sense to me and I'm not even talking about it's aggressive mid level warmth. Most other models give .80-1.0 is qpf. Rap and Hrrr which are in range both give me about 7 inches of snow where nam gives me 4.5. The globals give me more as well. I would be surprised if nam snow totals verify. We will find out soon enough.
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 24, 2022 10:11 pm

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 6 Nam3km_T2m_neus_fh9_trend.gif.a4029968869367f563f5b302ff7124fa

The HP is ticked more SW and a tad stronger. Ice holds on longer

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 6 Fmz6tp10

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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 24, 2022 10:27 pm

Sleet and snow mix here to start
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 24, 2022 10:35 pm

FRAM offe4s a mean and does best at showing freezing rain accretion.
.1 to .5 in NNJ is bad ....very very bad.

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 6 Frzrqp10

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Taffy Thu Feb 24, 2022 11:14 pm

Freezing rain turning to snow in Westfield, NJ. Started at 10pm.


Edited to add: I just took a walk outside. Any kind of weather to comment on has stopped!  Exclamation  Evil or Very Mad


Last edited by Taffy on Thu Feb 24, 2022 11:49 pm; edited 1 time in total
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