February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95

Wipers back and forth they go. Have we seen the last of the back and forth, in which case then warmer she goes, or do we go back the other way one last time? I’m sticking with my colder soln because that’s my bias as well as some of the actual reasoning prev stated.

sroc4 wrote:Wipers back and forth they go. Have we seen the last of the back and forth, in which case then warmer she goes, or do we go back the other way one last time?  I’m sticking with my colder soln because that’s my bias as well as some of the actual reasoning prev stated.

That was awesome...and I'd say you do a great job of balancing the bias in your analysis. I mean if there is a 'half full' to be told, I want to know all about it for sure lol

sroc4 wrote:Wipers back and forth they go. Have we seen the last of the back and forth, in which case then warmer she goes, or do we go back the other way one last time?  I’m sticking with my colder soln because that’s my bias as well as some of the actual reasoning prev stated.

Totally respect that.

snow aspect
Immediate Jersey Coast Trace up to coating
I-95 up to NYC/SS of LI c-1"
EPA/interior NNJ/NS LI 1-2"
NEPA/LHV/NW NJ (lower elevations < 700') 2-4" with 4-5" above 1200'
MHV 5-7" passed I-84 the closer to I-90 the more
North of I-90 jackpots with 8-12"

Ice aspect
zr straddling the interior I-78 up to .33" elsewhere < .25"
sleet 1/4"-1/2" just for good measure anywhere expect the immediate JC coast

Looks like the NWS is right with you on this ATM Heehaw.I am right near I 84 so I am hoping to get closer to 4 than 2.Looks like Math up in Albany will be the winner on this one.

I think the daffodils are going win this one down here at the coast  

NAM is too stingy with the snow IMO south of I84.  But you can see it shows the N of I-90 idea for the bigger snows.  I think folks south of the Mass Pike are going to be disappointed with verification.  Possibly up to Boston.

68* yesterday and 31* so far today..

I am seeing nothing to change my mind so far as to coming back to a colder soln.

FWIW this is the National Blend of models. This has been what my minds eye sees playing out

WAA coming in hard on the west.  I think central PA State College is going to get the most zr accretion out of this system.

NWS calls good IMO









Appetizer anyone??

I got a little bit of light snow/flurries with most recent batch. Currently 33/22

27 degrees overcast.NWS steadfast with 3 to 6 here.Nowcast time.Let's see if there is a last minute shift to help us or hurt us.

Latest 18Z NAM is bringing the 850mb main western vortex through Syracuse. That basically means mixing right at the I90 line and little snow for anything south of I84. I'm not ready to go there yet as it doesn't have support for that type of solution. But i wouldn't categorically discount it though.

HREF has a lot of freezing rain.

HRRR

SkiSeadooJoe wrote:I think the daffodils are going win this one down here at the coast  

No daffys yet up here, but my neighbor's irises popped up purple yesterday. That's always the first sign of spring for me.

Sparky Sparticles wrote:

SkiSeadooJoe wrote:I think the daffodils are going win this one down here at the coast  

No daffys yet up here, but my neighbor's irises popped up purple yesterday. That's always the first sign of spring for me.

I believe the flowers that are just popping up now are crocuses. Mine are about to pop. Irises tend to come out in May.

My town is getting a "whopper" as my daughter likes to call them but here I am back in Jersey missing a great storm. I was planning to head back to Boston tomorrow but New Jersey is stuck with me until Sunday.

Still hoping to get 7 or 8 inches out of this before the sleet gets here. I still think this could come in colder then forecasted! My high today was 27 it was supposed to be in the low 30s. Right now 25.

jimv45 wrote:Still hoping to get 7 or 8 inches out of this before the sleet gets here. I still think this could come in colder then forecasted! My high today was 27 it was supposed to be in the low 30s. Right now 25.

You should get pretty close to that Jim. Hoping for 6 here before the sleet. NWS talking about 1-2 inch per hour rates so it's going to come down hard. Same thing here with the temps. Forecast high was 33 and only made it to 28. Right now 26. Feels like snow.

00Z NAM says still be mindful of zr/ip. zr maybe a bit overdone as to what actual accretion will be, but plan on impacts to travel.  i'm not going to post the snow maps as they are very low totals.  Unfortunately I believe it's going to be close to verification based on the synoptics of the storm.

heehaw453 wrote:00Z NAM says still be mindful of zr/ip.  zr maybe a bit overdone as to what actual accretion will be, but plan on impacts to travel.  i'm not going to post the snow maps as they are very low totals.  Unfortunately I believe it's going to be close to verification based on the synoptics of the storm.

I disagree. The qpf of the the 00z nam is so lackluster given the setup and moisture source. .60 just doesn't make sense to me and I'm not even talking about it's aggressive mid level warmth. Most other models give .80-1.0 is qpf. Rap and Hrrr which are in range both give me about 7 inches of snow where nam gives me 4.5. The globals give me more as well. I would be surprised if nam snow totals verify. We will find out soon enough.

The HP is ticked more SW and a tad stronger. Ice holds on longer

Sleet and snow mix here to start

FRAM offe4s a mean and does best at showing freezing rain accretion.
.1 to .5 in NNJ is bad ....very very bad.

Freezing rain turning to snow in Westfield, NJ. Started at 10pm.


Edited to add: I just took a walk outside. Any kind of weather to comment on has stopped!