February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95

Def says something that both the GFS and the Euro have lurched in the colder direction at the same time. What that is I don't know. But something. lol.

12z's are colder again. CMC is too warm.

The Euro colder solution is highly dependent on the TPV press against the SE ridge.  This TPV is acting similar to an -NAO block and is the only reason this has a chance.  The more it presses the less latitude the mid-levels storms will get as well pinning the H deeper and longer in an ideal spot.  It's exactly what the GFS was showing several days ago and then lost that idea.  Is this just BS well were getting deep into the process now, so there's that.  Nonetheless a slightly less press by the TPV and this goes northward again.  Blocks many times can surprise on the good side...



It's not much but look at northern ME and note the press.  Yeah it's that subtle.
12Z



06Z

sroc4 wrote:Heehaw we never close off at 850 or 700 and 850's have multi focal vort max's.  The front end thump you have 700 screaming out of the west and 850 out of the SW and not S, SE or E like when you get that close 850 low.  Larry Cosgrove taught me a long time ago that when you see 700mb out of the west with an over runing event without any of the midl evels closing off it screams of correcting colder and snowier.  It would not surprise me if the mid level trends cont we get colder and snowier down to the coast.

Cosgrove said over the weekend that this would be a snow to ice scenario with serious potential from CNJ N.

Euro keeps trending S and it is picking up on the W to E flow from the TPV press The Euro has corrected as much as the GFS you can say but the GFS was on this with a snowstorm last Thursday. Did it see the ice - not really but have to give it credence here. Euro was up to Buffalo now it is in Rockville MD.

Even Rayno this morning echoed Cosgrove's idea as does JB, that is tough trio to go against.

Still a few more runs to go and then we look at Meso's to see where that warm nose is etc.

sroc4 wrote:Heehaw we never close off at 850 or 700 and 850's have multi focal vort max's.  The front end thump you have 700 screaming out of the west and 850 out of the SW and not S, SE or E like when you get that close 850 low.  Larry Cosgrove taught me a long time ago that when you see 700mb out of the west with an over runing event without any of the midl evels closing off it screams of correcting colder and snowier.  It would not surprise me if the mid level trends cont we get colder and snowier down to the coast.

That's great information!  The only thing I'll say is a warm nose finds a way if there's a way to be had.  I don't like betting against warm nose at the mid-levels with any sig part of the vortex getting passed the NY state border. Not saying no snow just feel pingers come much faster than what's being shown now.  I'd feel much better about Pittsburgh than Buffalo. Now I would love to be wrong on this and we'll know soon enough.

NAM is still out of its range. Let's compare this to tomorrow afternoon though when it will be in better range.  

amugs wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Heehaw we never close off at 850 or 700 and 850's have multi focal vort max's.  The front end thump you have 700 screaming out of the west and 850 out of the SW and not S, SE or E like when you get that close 850 low.  Larry Cosgrove taught me a long time ago that when you see 700mb out of the west with an over runing event without any of the midl evels closing off it screams of correcting colder and snowier.  It would not surprise me if the mid level trends cont we get colder and snowier down to the coast.

Cosgrove said over the weekend that this would be a snow to ice scenario with serious potential from CNJ N.

Euro keeps trending S and it is picking up on the W to E flow from the TPV press The Euro has corrected as much as the GFS you can say but the GFS was on this with a snowstorm last Thursday. Did it see the ice - not really but have to give it credence here.  Euro was up to Buffalo now it is in Rockville MD.

Even Rayno this morning echoed Cosgrove's idea as does JB, that is tough trio to go against.

Still a few more runs to go and then we look at Meso's to see where that warm nose is etc.

thats some serious frz, is that on top of the 4-6 inches the euro now shows? anyone have the ice map for that?

NAM - JUICING UP THE HP ADN KNOCKING BACK TEH SE RIDGE A TAD
Mike Mostwill post

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Heehaw we never close off at 850 or 700 and 850's have multi focal vort max's.  The front end thump you have 700 screaming out of the west and 850 out of the SW and not S, SE or E like when you get that close 850 low.  Larry Cosgrove taught me a long time ago that when you see 700mb out of the west with an over runing event without any of the midl evels closing off it screams of correcting colder and snowier.  It would not surprise me if the mid level trends cont we get colder and snowier down to the coast.

Cosgrove said over the weekend that this would be a snow to ice scenario with serious potential from CNJ N.

Euro keeps trending S and it is picking up on the W to E flow from the TPV press The Euro has corrected as much as the GFS you can say but the GFS was on this with a snowstorm last Thursday. Did it see the ice - not really but have to give it credence here.  Euro was up to Buffalo now it is in Rockville MD.

Even Rayno this morning echoed Cosgrove's idea as does JB, that is tough trio to go against.

Still a few more runs to go and then we look at Meso's to see where that warm nose is etc.

thats some serious frz, is that on top of the 4-6 inches the euro now shows? anyone have the ice map for that?

Temps crash behind it as well - UGLY sitch peeps

Anyone have the Euro frz map? It looked pretty bad from the surface map.

amugs wrote:

I also think snow amounts are being underestimated. 00z nam was significantly colder than 18z but still in it's long range.

The TPV will pin the H and force a redirection of the storm.  This will produce ice and I have little doubt on that.  Hopefully it's more ip than zr.  I think it could be cold enough to support ip for most areas for most of the event.  That is a robust H for sure and you see the bend of the isobars at the surface. Where you see the last bend (EPA) my guess is the surface to 3000 feet ASL doesn't get above freezing for 90% of the precip.

It's the kind of storm where you'll report snow and then you'll hear pingers 5 minutes later. Then as rates increase you'll say it's back to snow. As the precip rates increase snow will become more possible and as they lighten up you'll get ip. Overall all though it's rough to accumulate big amounts with this column. This is the weather though so I'm stoked to see who can surprise on this.

Good model runs tonight euro ukie GFS and nam are all advisory snows for New York City And warning level snows North of 287 Followed by ice most likely sleet from the city North and West

WSW for all except coast and central eastern nj, darn but it is almost march gotta take what we can get shoot 2-5 for coast and mothra level snows to the north? You guys were saying we probably wouldnt make it to warning level snows well apparently NWS does, NAM still has no snow for the entire area...weird.

Winter storm watch for my area NW NJ first one for Warren co this year !!!

jmanley32 wrote:WSW for all except coast and central eastern nj, darn but it is almost march gotta take what we can get shoot 2-5 for coast and mothra level snows to the north? You guys were saying we probably wouldnt make it to warning level snows well apparently NWS does, NAM still has no snow for the entire area...weird.

Nothing has changed with this storm for a few days now IMO. We unfortunately have 1/2 the synoptic equation for this storm to get sig snowfall. The beautiful H to the north will enforce low level cold and the WAA from the western storm will go over the dense cold air for ip/zr. IMO the rdps (Canadian meso) presentation is what I'd expect based on the synoptics.

North of Poughkeepsie they are far enough north to mitigate the major WAA effects, but even there it will mix. Jackpot is north of I-90.

The concern is how bad the zr gets around the interior I78 corridor. Hopefully it's more ip than zr.

I'm not trying to poo poo this for anyone, but truly believe snow will underwhelm on this one for many folks in the forum. We needed this mid level energy to pull off the coast around WV and then this would be another animal.

I just wanted to share a good basic pdf of the physics behind cold air damming. Hopefully, everyone can be more clear as to the mechanisms behind it.
Generally, it has to do with a resulting geostrophic adjustment on the east side (along the east coast) of mountain ranges creating an ageostrophic return flow parallel and opposite to the orientation of mountain ranges.
Starts on page 17:
http://twister.caps.ou.edu/MM2015/docs/chapter2/chapter2_presentation3.pdf

CAD Galore NG this is a bit overdone but even 50% of this is trouble!
WxLover 33 n rain board

NWS has me at 6-12 not much mixing expected up here! I can see some sleet getting up to 84 but not expecting any FRZ.

12Z NAM is off its rocker still IMO w.r.t. to snowfall. I wouldn't buy into its snow maps for those NW. It's bad synoptically, but IMO not that bad. Probably next few runs it corrects...