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February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 23, 2022 7:29 pm

Wow sroc.  you ain't kiddin.  It doesn't look like noise to me.  The low doesn't get anywhere the strength as it lifts because it's being pressed more by a full banana H.  That's a huge difference.  If that's not a bs run then the L is going to be transferring much faster and I'd argue that a further bump south is likely.  00z will tell us if this was a just a misinterpretation or not.

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 5 Euro62

12Z Surface
February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 5 12zeur12

18Z Surface
February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 5 18zeur10

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 23, 2022 7:38 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Wow sroc.  you ain't kiddin.  It doesn't look like noise to me.  The low doesn't get anywhere the strength as it lifts because it's being pressed more by a full banana H.  That's a huge difference.  If that's not a bs run then the L is going to be transferring much faster and I'd argue that a further bump south is likely.  00z will tell us if this was a just a misinterpretation or not.

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 5 Euro62

12Z Surface
February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 5 12zeur12

18Z Surface
February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 5 18zeur10
Is that all snow? Ill take 6 inches being I was expecting ice and rain.
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 23, 2022 7:47 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Wow sroc.  you ain't kiddin.  It doesn't look like noise to me.  The low doesn't get anywhere the strength as it lifts because it's being pressed more by a full banana H.  That's a huge difference.  If that's not a bs run then the L is going to be transferring much faster and I'd argue that a further bump south is likely.  00z will tell us if this was a just a misinterpretation or not.

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 5 Euro62

12Z Surface
February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 5 12zeur12

18Z Surface
February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 5 18zeur10
Is that all snow? Ill take 6 inches being I was expecting ice and rain.

Need another run to see if this has legs.  But the 18Z run was the best push against the L that I've seen from the Euro in days.

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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 23, 2022 7:53 pm

It's hard to keep looking at these Euro and GFS runs (and the early HRRR runs) and not suspect that there is something to this colder push and more suppressed energy. That Euro run not only buries a good part of the region under several inches of a front end thump snow, but has over a half inch of ice in Central NJ where the changeover occurs after 1-3" of snow.
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 23, 2022 8:07 pm

This Weathernerds.org consistently shows NS LI as getting a lot of snow.

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 5 Weathe11

pdf for Dynamic Ratio Algorithm: https://www.weathernerds.org/models/field_definitions/Snowfall.pdf

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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 23, 2022 8:20 pm

heehaw453 wrote:This Weathernerds.org consistently shows NS LI as getting a lot of snow.

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 5 Weathe11

pdf for Dynamic Ratio Algorithm:  https://www.weathernerds.org/models/field_definitions/Snowfall.pdf

When you posted this site's map earlier I kind of blew it off as overly aggressive on the snow totals. Now looking at the Euro . . . I'm not so sure?
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 23, 2022 8:32 pm

billg315 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:This Weathernerds.org consistently shows NS LI as getting a lot of snow.

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 5 Weathe11

pdf for Dynamic Ratio Algorithm:  https://www.weathernerds.org/models/field_definitions/Snowfall.pdf

When you posted this site's map earlier I kind of blew it off as overly aggressive on the snow totals. Now looking at the Euro . . . I'm not so sure?

I quickly read the paper on the algorithm. It tries to adjust for compaction based on surface temps, but also looks at the thermal profiles and saturation of the column at different levels to adjust the the snow ratio. Gives sleet to liquid as 1:1 which is normally it's 3:1. I don't have enough meteorology training to dispute or bolster it, but curious to see how it does with this storm.

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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 23, 2022 9:19 pm

0z NAM is further south with the cold press. Brings accumulating snow about 50 miles south of previous run. Still not showing totals like the Euro or GFS, but trended toward them. About 2-3" in far north NJ and 4-5" in the LHV. Still plenty of ice in Central and North NJ.
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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 23, 2022 9:40 pm

The NAM's movement toward the Euro/GFS, if it holds overnight, would really clarify things for me. I increasingly think there will be a good front-end thump of snow for folks north of I-80 (and maybe even I-78) and the ice threat seems locked in. All three models have areas of our forum getting .25 to .50" of ice. That is way more than a light glaze. As someone said earlier, if we get even half of that in those areas it will be very dangerous.
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Post by amugs Wed Feb 23, 2022 9:46 pm

^^^ Bill, I laoted a map yesterday and said the HP is anchored SE Can and this has a significant snow and ice storm written all over it all 93-94. WeatherBob also states this two night ago. Its coming together and the models are latching on.
Not being an alarmist here but this is going to be a pretty serious storm overall if these maps verify for snow and ice.

Maybe a Zoom tomorrow night if warrants but NO IMBY questions.

The suite since yesterday has ticked S with each successive run for 6 runs now.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 23, 2022 9:55 pm

Looks like I will be in primo spot for 6+ of snow in eastern CT, heading tomorrow afternoon/evening. I will report from there. Any sig icing threat for NYC area or mainly stays in NJ and west?
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 23, 2022 10:00 pm

I will say frank not chiming in does tell me something though that this may not work out, he did make one post that he was not enthused, it appears still feels same way or I would think he would posted.
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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 23, 2022 10:07 pm

I said this yesterday and it bears repeating. Even if we got a stronger warm push and a quicker changeover to plain rain . . . if that doesn't happen until mid-morning, the damage is done. This snow/sleet/freezing rain will be going for several hours before the Friday AM rush hour and right through it. So it will have major impacts unless these models are all WAY off and it changes to rain across most of the area before 4 or 5 a.m.
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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 23, 2022 10:10 pm

Btw, with regard to the air mass this will be running into: After hitting the upper 60s here this afternoon, it is now 38* with a dewpoint of 23*. This cold air is crashing in and doesn't seem likely to budge quickly once it settles over us tomorrow and tomorrow night.
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Post by hyde345 Wed Feb 23, 2022 10:25 pm

billg315 wrote:Btw, with regard to the air mass this will be running into: After hitting the upper 60s here this afternoon, it is now 38* with a dewpoint of 23*. This cold air is crashing in and doesn't seem likely to budge quickly once it settles over us tomorrow and tomorrow night.

Yup. After hitting a high of 66 early this afternoon Im sitting at 32 right now. Looking at 6+ in MHV.
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 23, 2022 10:31 pm

The models still showing volatility as per 00Z rgem.  50/75 miles further press to the south will have large impacts in snow/ice potential.  This can bust either way atm, but another run like that 18Z Euro at this range would bolster the bust high snow suspicions.

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 23, 2022 10:36 pm

billg315 wrote:Btw, with regard to the air mass this will be running into: After hitting the upper 60s here this afternoon, it is now 38* with a dewpoint of 23*. This cold air is crashing in and doesn't seem likely to budge quickly once it settles over us tomorrow and tomorrow night.


Low level cold is not moving out especially along and north of I78. It's the 5500-7500' that is the question and that is going to depend on how strong the 850mb/700mb western vorticity max is and how far north it gets.  I'm skeptical of betting against the warm nose.

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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 23, 2022 10:39 pm

0z GFS should be running soon. We'll see where this takes us.
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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 23, 2022 11:00 pm

0z GFS slightly warmer. Retreated a little to the north on snow accumulations (actually close to what the 0z NAM shows) and cut back slightly on the ice totals. Not a huge change, but a shift. One could say it came closer into agreement with the NAM (as the NAM moved closer to it as well). But, I'm sure we'll see more slight shifts overnight and tomorrow as this is a complex set-up, so I'd not read too much into these minor changes on any one model run right now.
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 23, 2022 11:02 pm

This look of 00Z GFS won't get sig snow in these parts.  I don't like the Buf-->Bgm trajectory of the vorticity max.  I want to see that either much weaker or further south.

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 5 Gfs82

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Post by billg315 Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:33 am

6z NAM and GFS both keep most significant snow well north of the NY/NJ line toward I-84. They have come into line on that. But the NAM nukes the area with .5 to .75” of ice. GFS is more reserved on ice amounts but still problematic.
As of now the ice aspect remains the bigger threat than snow south of a line from Stroudsburg PA to just north of NYC. Either way the AM commute tomorrow is rough with some snow and sleet going over to potentially significant ice everywhere north of I-195 in Central NJ.
Most areas of North Jersey don’t go over to plain rain until after noon which on duration alone is a problem.
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Post by billg315 Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:37 am

Despite the GFS retreating a bit north on its accumulating snow where it has met the NAM (which trended south last night) in the middle, there still is likely some snow to be had on the front end of this before the ice aspect takes over. And areas in the MHV and north of course should see some nice accumulation.
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:14 am

This is very close to what I'd expect for this synoptics of this storm.  I think very close now to consensus.  Cut the ice accretion in half IMO.  This will be a miss for snow for most in this forum as we just don't have the synoptics.  The ice will be borderline sig IMO, but shouldn't affect power lines too much hopefully.  

February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 5 Ecmwf12
February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 5 Eurosl11
February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 5 Eurosn29
February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95 - Page 5 Eurosn30

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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:00 am

Wipers back and forth they go. Have we seen the last of the back and forth, in which case then warmer she goes, or do we go back the other way one last time? I’m sticking with my colder soln because that’s my bias as well as some of the actual reasoning prev stated.

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Post by SENJsnowman Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:06 am

sroc4 wrote:Wipers back and forth they go. Have we seen the last of the back and forth, in which case then warmer she goes, or do we go back the other way one last time?  I’m sticking with my colder soln because that’s my bias as well as some of the actual reasoning prev stated.

That was awesome...and I'd say you do a great job of balancing the bias in your analysis. I mean if there is a 'half full' to be told, I want to know all about it for sure lol

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