January Obs & Discussions

heehaw453 wrote:All we would have needed was just a weak H to pump some cold air into the area.  That track on January 23 and rain all the way to coastal NH. Rock bottom folks...

It’s actually unheard of. The last week in January where the average highs and lows are 34/15 in Orange County and with that track and NNE winds forecast Sunday night I have a forecast of 33 and rain all night. I have to laugh it’s so absurd.

In case you haven’t heard (eye roll), Sunday and Wednesdays storm are likely to drop an inch of two of rain along the coast. In particular the Wednesday storm could come with a line of thunderstorms that causes localized flooding. Truly an awful winter for snow lovers. Not to say, I can see how N&W gets a coating to an inch from both storms on the back end. Also keeping an eye for front end snow with Wednesday’s storm.

Pretty surprised nobody has commented on the GFS, euro, 3k NAM, Hrrr that there is cold air filtering in on the back end. I’ve never been one for backend snow but trend is interesting. Later afternoon Monday time frame.

sroc4 wrote:Pretty surprised nobody has commented on the GFS, euro, 3k NAM, Hrrr that there is cold air filtering in on the back end. I’ve never been one for backend snow but trend is interesting. Later afternoon Monday time frame.

Yep. Nice observation. I'm hard selling the guidance for now especially the 18Z GFS. There is a lot of energy on the front side of the 500mb trough as it approaches the coast and it pops a surface low due to it.  Very rarely does that play out other than some trace snowfall as things are usually moving too fast and the column must cool quickly. Let's see if guidance has it this pronounced tomorrow.

heehaw453 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Pretty surprised nobody has commented on the GFS, euro, 3k NAM, Hrrr that there is cold air filtering in on the back end. I’ve never been one for backend snow but trend is interesting. Later afternoon Monday time frame.

Yep. Nice observation. I'm hard selling the guidance for now especially the 18Z GFS. There is a lot of energy on the front side of the 500mb trough as it approaches the coast and it pops a surface low due to it.  Very rarely does that play out other than some trace snowfall as things are usually moving too fast and the column must cool quickly. Let's see if guidance has it this pronounced tomorrow.

Yup. Back end stuff rarely works out. Certainly this year has everyone gun shy making it even worse, but I’m getting a tingle looking at some of these details. The tingle may just be sleeping on my arm the wrong way but…maybe not.

I’ve mentioned it, but for real shot of accumulation I think it’s mostly N&W. Would still be nice to see snow fall though. Let’s see how it goes…

31 degrees, cloudy calm.Snow/rain later today, then mix to rain tomorrow.Carbon copy of last weeks storm with far interior N & W getting accumulations.Same for the mid week storm.Hopefully. this miserable pattern will shift snow S and E when February comes.

Keep on eye on Monday as sroc and frank pointed out. Front end will be limited IMO to quick burst of snow as there is no H supplying cold air. But it's the mid-level energy that is around the 500mb trough as it approaches the coast that may provide an opportunity for snow.  Right now GFS is most aggressive with it.  Sell the idea for now IMO until we get closer. A lot has to go right for backend snows to work out and more often than not it doesn't.

Cold and slate gray skies.Sure looks like snow but it is going to rain.back end snows are a carp shoot, have seen more accumulation with snow squalls after a cold front.Would be nice to see a few flakes,though.

Euro for all you lovers !!
And I will say back end snows for this are not some frontal low developing or some a secondary low with fierce NW cold air dries it out as it tries to get going. Totally different set up I shall argue. We have a deepening coastal LP that is off Cape Cod as it slowly moves up into Bay Of Maine and has a ton of warm Atlantic moisture to work with as it circulates around this big LP. Totally different set up. None are like the other for this scenario with back end snows so time will tell. But it's been showing this since 12z yesterday so it has some merit almost going a full cycle now.

The latest first measurable snowfalls at CPK since records kept over 150 years ago. We are now tied for second on this infamous list and will be in sole possession of second at midnight tonight. 

Year and the date/amount the measurable snowfall occurred.  If I look at the models I think it's unlikely to break this, but as I look at this winter it seems awfully reasonable to think so.

1972-73 January 29 1.8 inches (lowest in recorded history seasonal total 2.8")
2022-23 January 21 T (ongoing no measurable snowfall recorded)
1870-71 January 21 .4 inches
1999-00 January 20 2.5 inches
1965-66 January 20 .4 inches (very prolific end to January)
2006-07 January 19 .3 inches
1997-98 January 18 .5 inches
2015-16 January 17 .4 inches
1994-95 January 11 .2 inches (.2 stood until 2/4/2012) 
1885-86 January 09 5 inches
2001-02 January 07 .5 inches
1971-72 January 05 1 inch
1877-78 January 04 1 inch 
1943-44 January 03 .7 inches

amugs wrote:Euro for all you lovers !!
And I will say back end snows for this are not some frontal low developing or some a secondary low with fierce NW cold air dries it out as it tries to get going. Totally different set up I shall argue. We have a deepening coastal LP that is off Cape Cod as it slowly moves up into Bay Of Maine and has a ton of warm Atlantic moisture to work with as it circulates around this big LP. Totally different set up. None are like the other for this scenario with back end snows so time will tell. But it's been showing this since 12z yesterday so it has some merit almost going a full cycle now.

Okay, but not sure what any of that has to do with picture you posted.

FYI. I'll start a thread for Wednesday's threat tomorrow unless it craps the bed before then.  But ATTM feel decent that it will be the most frozen precip many have seen this entire season. To be clear it's not ideal, but better than the nothingness we've had.

Snow springs eternal from the human breast

3K NAM still hinting at wrap around snow with that mid-level energy hanging off the coast. Usually NAM does pick up on this kind of stuff reliably at this range, so just have to see if it continues at 00Z.

I don't expect too much in the way of accumulations but snow may be flying...

heehaw453 wrote:3K NAM still hinting at wrap around snow with that mid-level energy hanging off the coast. Usually NAM does pick up on this kind of stuff reliably at this range, so just have to see if it continues at 00Z.

I don't expect too much in the way of accumulations but snow may be flying...

Yeah I wouldn't be too sure. 1-3” is def not out of the question.  Surface temps aren’t going to be 50* at the outset.  More like 30’s.

Had some sleet here in edison, was not expecting it. I would not be surprised if the backend snow pans out thus go around. Not banking on it but we have a shot

I can see snow flying in the air, but IMO minor accumulations (1-3") are going to be interior like NW NJ, LHV. Unless this storm blows up a little further south which I doubt. It'd be nice to see snow flying at least though quite honestly. Take what you can get in this winter.

Light rain mixing in with sleet

@CP the gif I made did not post ARGGHH!!!
Rain and sleet mix at 37*

Northern posters report in please. Hearing Sussex Cty to West Milford snowing good and stickage. Confirm?
CP, Doc?

32 degrees and snowing Big Flakes , sticking to road, grass and cars.

Same here. A cookie coating so far

33 with moderate snow. Sticking to colder surfaces.

33 with moderate rain mixed with A few flakes. Pretty much sums it up so far this Wall.

Salt truck just went thru, holding 32 degrees, light mist snow now

Sleeting. 32 degrees. 32 is the low for tonight here. Sleet is is and sleet it will be or rain depending on the air temp up there in the sky and not down here.

I, from Northwestern Orange County, yield the floor to the distinquished gentleman from Eastern Orange County