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January Obs & Discussions

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 20, 2023 7:56 pm

heehaw453 wrote:All we would have needed was just a weak H to pump some cold air into the area.  That track on January 23 and rain all the way to coastal NH. Rock bottom folks...

white flag white flag white flag
January Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Icon18

It’s actually unheard of. The last week in January where the average highs and lows are 34/15 in Orange County and with that track and NNE winds forecast Sunday night I have a forecast of 33 and rain all night. I have to laugh it’s so absurd.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 21, 2023 8:13 am

In case you haven’t heard (eye roll), Sunday and Wednesdays storm are likely to drop an inch of two of rain along the coast. In particular the Wednesday storm could come with a line of thunderstorms that causes localized flooding. Truly an awful winter for snow lovers. Not to say, I can see how N&W gets a coating to an inch from both storms on the back end. Also keeping an eye for front end snow with Wednesday’s storm.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 21, 2023 5:58 pm

Pretty surprised nobody has commented on the GFS, euro, 3k NAM, Hrrr that there is cold air filtering in on the back end. I’ve never been one for backend snow but trend is interesting. Later afternoon Monday time frame.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.25"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 21, 2023 6:11 pm

sroc4 wrote:Pretty surprised nobody has commented on the GFS, euro, 3k NAM, Hrrr that there is cold air filtering in on the back end. I’ve never been one for backend snow but trend is interesting. Later afternoon Monday time frame.
Yep. Nice observation. I'm hard selling the guidance for now especially the 18Z GFS. There is a lot of energy on the front side of the 500mb trough as it approaches the coast and it pops a surface low due to it.  Very rarely does that play out other than some trace snowfall as things are usually moving too fast and the column must cool quickly. Let's see if guidance has it this pronounced tomorrow.

January Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Gfs147

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 21, 2023 6:24 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Pretty surprised nobody has commented on the GFS, euro, 3k NAM, Hrrr that there is cold air filtering in on the back end. I’ve never been one for backend snow but trend is interesting. Later afternoon Monday time frame.
Yep. Nice observation. I'm hard selling the guidance for now especially the 18Z GFS. There is a lot of energy on the front side of the 500mb trough as it approaches the coast and it pops a surface low due to it.  Very rarely does that play out other than some trace snowfall as things are usually moving too fast and the column must cool quickly. Let's see if guidance has it this pronounced tomorrow.

January Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Gfs147

Yup. Back end stuff rarely works out. Certainly this year has everyone gun shy making it even worse, but I’m getting a tingle looking at some of these details. The tingle may just be sleeping on my arm the wrong way but…maybe not.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.25"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 21, 2023 11:27 pm

I’ve mentioned it, but for real shot of accumulation I think it’s mostly N&W. Would still be nice to see snow fall though. Let’s see how it goes…

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Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 22, 2023 7:14 am

31 degrees, cloudy calm.Snow/rain later today, then mix to rain tomorrow.Carbon copy of last weeks storm with far interior N & W getting accumulations.Same for the mid week storm.Hopefully. this miserable pattern will shift snow S and E when February comes.
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 22, 2023 8:11 am

Keep on eye on Monday as sroc and frank pointed out. Front end will be limited IMO to quick burst of snow as there is no H supplying cold air. But it's the mid-level energy that is around the 500mb trough as it approaches the coast that may provide an opportunity for snow.  Right now GFS is most aggressive with it.  Sell the idea for now IMO until we get closer. A lot has to go right for backend snows to work out and more often than not it doesn't.
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Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 22, 2023 8:39 am

Cold and slate gray skies.Sure looks like snow but it is going to rain.back end snows are a carp shoot, have seen more accumulation with snow squalls after a cold front.Would be nice to see a few flakes,though.
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 22, 2023 9:30 am

Euro for all you lovers !!
And I will say back end snows for this are not some frontal low developing or some a secondary low with fierce NW cold air dries it out as it tries to get going. Totally different set up I shall argue. We have a deepening coastal LP that is off Cape Cod as it slowly moves up into Bay Of Maine and has a ton of warm Atlantic moisture to work with as it circulates around this big LP. Totally different set up. None are like the other for this scenario with back end snows so time will tell. But it's been showing this since 12z yesterday so it has some merit almost going a full cycle now.

January Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Ecmwf-12

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 22, 2023 11:23 am

The latest first measurable snowfalls at CPK since records kept over 150 years ago. We are now tied for second on this infamous list and will be in sole possession of second at midnight tonight. 

Year and the date/amount the measurable snowfall occurred.  If I look at the models I think it's unlikely to break this, but as I look at this winter it seems awfully reasonable to think so.

1972-73 January 29 1.8 inches (lowest in recorded history seasonal total 2.8")
2022-23 January 21 T (ongoing no measurable snowfall recorded)
1870-71 January 21 .4 inches
1999-00 January 20 2.5 inches
1965-66 January 20 .4 inches (very prolific end to January)
2006-07 January 19 .3 inches
1997-98 January 18 .5 inches
2015-16 January 17 .4 inches
1994-95 January 11 .2 inches (.2 stood until 2/4/2012) 
1885-86 January 09 5 inches
2001-02 January 07 .5 inches
1971-72 January 05 1 inch
1877-78 January 04 1 inch 
1943-44 January 03 .7 inches

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Jan 22, 2023 12:32 pm

amugs wrote:Euro for all you lovers !!
And I will say back end snows for this are not some frontal low developing or some a secondary low with fierce NW cold air dries it out as it tries to get going. Totally different set up I shall argue. We have a deepening coastal LP that is off Cape Cod as it slowly moves up into Bay Of Maine and has a ton of warm Atlantic moisture to work with as it circulates around this big LP. Totally different set up. None are like the other for this scenario with back end snows so time will tell. But it's been showing this since 12z yesterday so it has some merit almost going a full cycle now.

January Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Ecmwf-12

Okay, but not sure what any of that has to do with picture you posted.
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 22, 2023 1:49 pm

FYI. I'll start a thread for Wednesday's threat tomorrow unless it craps the bed before then.  But ATTM feel decent that it will be the most frozen precip many have seen this entire season. To be clear it's not ideal, but better than the nothingness we've had.

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Post by dkodgis Sun Jan 22, 2023 1:59 pm

Snow springs eternal from the human breast
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 22, 2023 4:00 pm

3K NAM still hinting at wrap around snow with that mid-level energy hanging off the coast. Usually NAM does pick up on this kind of stuff reliably at this range, so just have to see if it continues at 00Z.

I don't expect too much in the way of accumulations but snow may be flying...

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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 22, 2023 4:21 pm

heehaw453 wrote:3K NAM still hinting at wrap around snow with that mid-level energy hanging off the coast. Usually NAM does pick up on this kind of stuff reliably at this range, so just have to see if it continues at 00Z.

I don't expect too much in the way of accumulations but snow may be flying...

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Yeah I wouldn't be too sure. 1-3” is def not out of the question.  Surface temps aren’t going to be 50* at the outset.  More like 30’s.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.25"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by phil155 Sun Jan 22, 2023 4:59 pm

Had some sleet here in edison, was not expecting it. I would not be surprised if the backend snow pans out thus go around. Not banking on it but we have a shot

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 22, 2023 5:06 pm

I can see snow flying in the air, but IMO minor accumulations (1-3") are going to be interior like NW NJ, LHV. Unless this storm blows up a little further south which I doubt. It'd be nice to see snow flying at least though quite honestly. Take what you can get in this winter.

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Post by frank 638 Sun Jan 22, 2023 5:25 pm

Light rain mixing in with sleet

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 22, 2023 6:21 pm

@CP the gif I made did not post ARGGHH!!!
Rain and sleet mix at 37*

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 22, 2023 8:14 pm

Northern posters report in please. Hearing Sussex Cty to West Milford snowing good and stickage. Confirm?
CP, Doc?

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Post by 1190ftalt Sun Jan 22, 2023 8:17 pm

32 degrees and snowing Big Flakes , sticking to road, grass and cars.January Obs & Discussions - Page 5 666a6210
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Post by dkodgis Sun Jan 22, 2023 8:18 pm

Same here. A cookie coating so far
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Post by hyde345 Sun Jan 22, 2023 8:19 pm

33 with moderate snow. Sticking to colder surfaces.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Jan 22, 2023 8:41 pm

33 with moderate rain mixed with A few flakes. Pretty much sums it up so far this Wall.
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Post by 1190ftalt Sun Jan 22, 2023 9:07 pm

Salt truck just went thru, holding 32 degrees, light mist snow nowJanuary Obs & Discussions - Page 5 36307b10
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Post by dkodgis Sun Jan 22, 2023 9:08 pm

Sleeting. 32 degrees. 32 is the low for tonight here. Sleet is is and sleet it will be or rain depending on the air temp up there in the sky and not down here.

I, from Northwestern Orange County, yield the floor to the distinquished gentleman from Eastern Orange County
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