Re: January Obs & Discussions

by SkiSeadooJoe Wed Jan 25, 2023 2:24 pm

So as of today, Jan 25 i have close to 2 inches of Daffodils showing.....season total snowfall is at a dismal trace at best down here, lets go pattern change, let's go already!

January Obs & Discussions - Page 8 20230111

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:02 pm

SkiSeadooJoe wrote:So as of today, Jan 25 i have close to 2 inches of Daffodils showing.....season total snowfall is at a dismal trace at best down here, lets go pattern change, let's go already!

I know I’ve been preaching pattern change in late Jan / early February time frame, but I’m having doubts now. Doesn’t seem like the Stratosphere is cooperating with us this year, and MJO forcing is confined to the western Pacific.

Goes to show…three straight years of La Niña = NOT GOOD

by **frank 638** Wed Jan 25, 2023 9:01 pm

Heavy rain temps are going up and I am losing Patience Jan will be a snowless month for me where I live .Feb I am loosing hopes .all I can say is bring on spring I rather enjoy being outdoors bbq Yankee games more what a shame how this so called winter turned out to be

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 25, 2023 9:26 pm

frank 638 wrote:Heavy rain temps are going up and I am losing Patience Jan will be a snowless month for me where I live .Feb I am loosing hopes .all I can say is bring on spring I rather enjoy being outdoors bbq Yankee games more what a shame how this so called winter turned out to be

yup me to bring on spring, well its basically already been here fall never left. The real smach is look at the radar this would have been 2-3 ft snowstorm...

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 26, 2023 7:36 am

CPK recorded a trace of snow yesterday 1/25. With that the 1/29 record of no measurable snowfall is all but certain to fall. The question becomes how long is it going to take to have measurable snowfall again? CPK is not going w/out measurable snowfall this season. Single digits more likely than not but there will be some.

Another interesting note since records have been kept (over 150 years ago) there have been only 3 instances when January didn't produce measurable snowfall: 1890, 2008, and 1933. So it's about once in 50 years or so.

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 26, 2023 7:46 am

It looks like it is going to be in the 50s here this weekend. I might get outside and start getting the boat ready for the spring since I see no long duration cold shots in the next 30-days.

Once March 1st comes around, getting long duration cold events and accumulating snowfall gets climatologically increasing difficult. This is especially true for most areas of the Metro outside of elevated areas.

I won't be surprised if areas south of NYC do not see any accumulating snow this year, and NYC proper sees less than 3-6" in total (I still think there is a outside chance NYC sees no accumulation, though this is a statistically small chance just based on climatology even in a La Nina base state).

The bottom line is, if we do not see any favorable changes in the next week or so on model guidance, I think this winter will be in the bag.

by **docstox12** Fri Jan 27, 2023 2:43 pm

37 degrees, snow flurries.

by Frozen.9 Sat Jan 28, 2023 2:56 am

WeatherUnderground shows nothing till possibly the 2nd week of Feb. but the cold air will be here next week.

by **heehaw453** Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:28 am

As of yesterday 1/27/2023 CPK mean January temp is 43.2 which is +9.5 AN. I posted before there have been 3 times when CPK hasn't had measurable snowfall in January 1890, 2008, and 1933 this January will be the fourth time.

2023 January mean temp 43.2
2008 January mean temp 36.5
1933 January mean temp 40.3
1890 January mean temp 37.6

When you couple no measurable snowfall with AN temps this is the worst January on record for winter weather by a large margin. There is no close second. I keep saying CPK is going to have measurable snowfall this season, but maybe I'm relying too much on past results and not looking what's really going on?

by **heehaw453** Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:45 am

EC stations as of today with no measurable snowfall this season. Dulles has broken the longest it's take for measurable snowfall which was set in 2008-2009 when January 27 2" fell. CPK record next in line to fall and coming in a few days.

IAD Dulles
BWI Baltimore
PHI Philadelphia
DCA Washington DC
CPK Central Park

by **Radz** Sat Jan 28, 2023 2:51 pm

51* totally absurd… 4 mile walk by the river to kill the pain lol

by **phil155** Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:00 pm

heehaw453 wrote:EC stations as of today with no measurable snowfall this season. Dulles has broken the longest it's take for measurable snowfall which was set in 2008-2009 when January 27 2" fell. CPK record next in line to fall and coming in a few days.

IAD Dulles
BWI Baltimore
PHI Philadelphia
DCA Washington DC
CPK Central Park

Yoy may as well include ewe, whatever snow they have had is not much at all

by **jmanley32** Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:03 pm

Insane, broke history no snowfall in NYC, and from models looks like nothing through first half February. It was t-shirt weather today or a light sweatshirt. I have actually been seeing garage sales, I really hope for sake of my business that we keep up this trend and go straight into summer, you guys up north can have snow, by Feb 15th I start looking towards the closure of winter (but we haven't had one yet this year), this is fall still, we skipped winter. lol

by **jmanley32** Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:05 pm

docstox12 wrote:37 degrees, snow flurries.

"It's not really snow because it's just a dusting". Kudos to who can tell me where this quote comes from.

by **weatherwatchermom** Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:44 pm

Radz wrote:51* totally absurd… 4 mile walk by the river to kill the pain lol

Hope you enjoyed the walk

58* here...I drove with the roof down on the car..it is crazy end of Jan..Husband laughed when I pulled up..in my midlife crisis car... Smile

(that my son wants to drive before the will.hahaha )

by **heehaw453** Sat Jan 28, 2023 5:48 pm

phil155 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:EC stations as of today with no measurable snowfall this season. Dulles has broken the longest it's take for measurable snowfall which was set in 2008-2009 when January 27 2" fell. CPK record next in line to fall and coming in a few days.

IAD Dulles
BWI Baltimore
PHI Philadelphia
DCA Washington DC
CPK Central Park

Yoy may as well include ewe, whatever snow they have had is not much at all

Many stations have reported < .5" for season e.g, EWR, ISP, New Brunswick, etc. The scope of the futility is amazing.

by **phil155** Sat Jan 28, 2023 7:57 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
phil155 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:EC stations as of today with no measurable snowfall this season. Dulles has broken the longest it's take for measurable snowfall which was set in 2008-2009 when January 27 2" fell. CPK record next in line to fall and coming in a few days.

IAD Dulles
BWI Baltimore
PHI Philadelphia
DCA Washington DC
CPK Central Park

Yoy may as well include ewe, whatever snow they have had is not much at all
Many stations have reported < .5" for season e.g, EWR, ISP, New Brunswick, etc. The scope of the futility is amazing.

Not sure how ewr and new Brunswick have anything measurable, I live between the 2 and I have not had Jack.

by **heehaw453** Sat Jan 28, 2023 9:06 pm

phil155 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
phil155 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:EC stations as of today with no measurable snowfall this season. Dulles has broken the longest it's take for measurable snowfall which was set in 2008-2009 when January 27 2" fell. CPK record next in line to fall and coming in a few days.

IAD Dulles
BWI Baltimore
PHI Philadelphia
DCA Washington DC
CPK Central Park

Yoy may as well include ewe, whatever snow they have had is not much at all
Many stations have reported < .5" for season e.g, EWR, ISP, New Brunswick, etc. The scope of the futility is amazing.

Not sure how ewr and new Brunswick have anything measurable, I live between the 2 and I have not had Jack.

ewr Dec 11 had .1" and nothing since then. ISP .4" was 12/11 and nothing since then. Just checked New Brunswick and you are right no measurable snowfall this season.

by **phil155** Sun Jan 29, 2023 5:57 am

I think the .1 at ewr is being very generous

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 30, 2023 8:26 am

The CPK record has been broken for the deepest into the season without measurable snowfall as of midnight 1/30/2023. JFK too has broken their record. I'll post them in the stats thread once the date comes when measurable snowfall occurs again. Could be a while.

150+ years of records in CPK.

2022-23 January 30 T (ongoing no measurable snowfall recorded)
1972-73 January 29 1.8 inches (lowest in recorded history seasonal total 2.8")
1870-71 January 21 .4 inches
1999-00 January 20 2.5 inches
1965-66 January 20 .4 inches (very prolific end to January)
2006-07 January 19 .3 inches
1997-98 January 18 .5 inches
2015-16 January 17 .4 inches
1994-95 January 11 .2 inches (.2 stood until 2/4/2012)
1885-86 January 09 5 inches
2001-02 January 07 .5 inches
1971-72 January 05 1 inch
1877-78 January 04 1 inch
1943-44 January 03 .7 inches

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 30, 2023 8:36 am

The GEFS is saying I95 breaks the streak on Tuesday night/Wednesday. RGEM has been saying this for a few days. Possible depends on the wave development.

January Obs & Discussions - Page 8 Gefs63

January Obs & Discussions - Page 8 Temps23

January Obs & Discussions - Page 8 Gefssn10

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 30, 2023 9:52 am

This is GFS hi res. It has the look of a wave trying to blow up a bit. This could be sneaky few inches on the I95/LI and Jersey Coast. The surface should be below freezing especially on LI/I95. Hard to believe anything in this winter though.

January Obs & Discussions - Page 8 Fv311

by **phil155** Mon Jan 30, 2023 9:55 am

heehaw453 wrote:This is GFS hi res. It has the look of a wave trying to blow up a bit. This could be sneaky few inches on the I95/LI and Jersey Coast. The surface should be below freezing especially on LI/I95. Hard to believe anything in this winter though.

This is cool, we have a chance, not a great chance but a chance none the less.

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 30, 2023 10:25 am

It will all depend on how strong the wave is. If it's strong enough this will be a few inch type of deal right to the coast. Just have to see how much lift this thing can give us.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 30, 2023 10:28 am

heehaw453 wrote:It will all depend on how strong the wave is. If it's strong enough this will be a few inch type of deal right to the coast. Just have to see how much lift this thing can give us.

Now that NYC set the record it would be nice to finally end the streak. I'm not counting on it for them though.

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 30, 2023 10:53 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:It will all depend on how strong the wave is. If it's strong enough this will be a few inch type of deal right to the coast. Just have to see how much lift this thing can give us.

Now that NYC set the record it would be nice to finally end the streak. I'm not counting on it for them though.

I wont completely rule it out either I too cant say Im super thrilled. There is a clear west to east flow and a baroclinic zone. All that is needed is just a little impulse to trigger some increased vertical motion.

The rgem has been most robust with this brining that trigger far enough north to affect the area. However; pretty much all other models have been much further south. Even todays 12z rgem has trended south with the edge of the mid level energy.

First image is rgem 500mb energy from its prev run followed by 12z. Pay attention to where the yellow streak is on the first image vs second. Further south by a bunch.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/rgem-all/ne/vort500_z500/1675058400/1675260000-anDjsiQZqyQ.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/rgem-all/ne/vort500_z500/1675080000/1675260000-naaFxRl3iS4.png

The result at the surface between the two positions looks like this:

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/rgem-all/ne/instant_ptype/1675058400/1675260000-pjuPjpfvymY.png

January Obs & Discussions - Page 8 1675260000-x78qXwqFXw0

Bottom line is that the one model who was calling for a little snow trended towards al the others who havent had anything doing thuis far. Again a shift of the mid level energy N by 30-50 miles could mean a little white for some, but I am not hoilding my breath

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 30, 2023 11:36 am

sroc4 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:It will all depend on how strong the wave is. If it's strong enough this will be a few inch type of deal right to the coast. Just have to see how much lift this thing can give us.

Now that NYC set the record it would be nice to finally end the streak. I'm not counting on it for them though.

I wont completely rule it out either I too cant say Im super thrilled. There is a clear west to east flow and a baroclinic zone. All that is needed is just a little impulse to trigger some increased vertical motion.

The rgem has been most robust with this brining that trigger far enough north to affect the area. However; pretty much all other models have been much further south. Even todays 12z rgem has trended south with the edge of the mid level energy.

First image is rgem 500mb energy from its prev run followed by 12z. Pay attention to where the yellow streak is on the first image vs second. Further south by a bunch.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/rgem-all/ne/vort500_z500/1675058400/1675260000-anDjsiQZqyQ.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/rgem-all/ne/vort500_z500/1675080000/1675260000-naaFxRl3iS4.png

The result at the surface between the two positions looks like this:

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/rgem-all/ne/instant_ptype/1675058400/1675260000-pjuPjpfvymY.png

Bottom line is that the one model who was calling for a little snow trended towards al the others who havent had anything doing thuis far. Again a shift of the mid level energy N by 30-50 miles could mean a little white for some, but I am not hoilding my breath

I would take the under every single time this winter until it shows a little somethin somethin. Independent events are not so independent when it comes to propensities where snow falls.

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