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January Obs & Discussions

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Post by SkiSeadooJoe Wed Jan 25, 2023 2:24 pm

So as of today, Jan 25 i have close to 2 inches of Daffodils showing.....season total snowfall is at a dismal trace at best down here, lets go pattern change, let's go already!January Obs & Discussions - Page 8 20230111

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:02 pm

SkiSeadooJoe wrote:So as of today, Jan 25 i have close to 2 inches of Daffodils showing.....season total snowfall is at a dismal trace at best down here, lets go pattern change, let's go already!January Obs & Discussions - Page 8 20230111

I know I’ve been preaching pattern change in late Jan / early February time frame, but I’m having doubts now. Doesn’t seem like the Stratosphere is cooperating with us this year, and MJO forcing is confined to the western Pacific.

Goes to show…three straight years of La Niña = NOT GOOD

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Post by frank 638 Wed Jan 25, 2023 9:01 pm

Heavy rain temps are going up and I am losing Patience Jan will be a snowless month for me where I live .Feb I am loosing hopes .all I can say is bring on spring I rather enjoy being outdoors bbq Yankee games more what a shame how this so called winter turned out to be

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 25, 2023 9:26 pm

frank 638 wrote:Heavy rain temps are going up and I am losing Patience Jan will be a snowless month for me where I live .Feb I am loosing hopes .all I can say is bring on spring I rather enjoy being outdoors bbq Yankee games more what a shame how this so called winter turned out to be
yup me to bring on spring, well its basically already been here fall never left. The real smach is look at the radar this would have been 2-3 ft snowstorm...
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 26, 2023 7:36 am

CPK recorded a trace of snow yesterday 1/25.  With that the 1/29 record of no measurable snowfall is all but certain to fall. The question becomes how long is it going to take to have measurable snowfall again? CPK is not going w/out measurable snowfall this season. Single digits more likely than not but there will be some.

Another interesting note since records have been kept (over 150 years ago) there have been only 3 instances when January didn't produce measurable snowfall: 1890, 2008, and 1933.  So it's about once in 50 years or so.

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Post by Quietace Thu Jan 26, 2023 7:46 am

It looks like it is going to be in the 50s here this weekend. I might get outside and start getting the boat ready for the spring since I see no long duration cold shots in the next 30-days.

Once March 1st comes around, getting long duration cold events and accumulating snowfall gets climatologically increasing difficult. This is especially true for most areas of the Metro outside of elevated areas.

I won't be surprised if areas south of NYC do not see any accumulating snow this year, and NYC proper sees less than 3-6" in total (I still think there is a outside chance NYC sees no accumulation, though this is a statistically small chance just based on climatology even in a La Nina base state).

The bottom line is, if we do not see any favorable changes in the next week or so on model guidance, I think this winter will be in the bag.
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Post by docstox12 Yesterday at 2:43 pm

37 degrees, snow flurries.
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Post by Frozen.9 Today at 2:56 am

WeatherUnderground shows nothing till possibly the 2nd week of Feb. but the cold air will be here next week.

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