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January Obs & Discussions

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Post by dkodgis Sun Jan 08, 2023 6:21 pm

28 and ever so lightly flurrying

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Post by Grselig Sun Jan 08, 2023 6:42 pm

Dropping. 34 in Wayne NJ.

Agree SROC. Let's have some hope. Winter should be enjoyed. Not optimal, but there is time.

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 09, 2023 7:09 am

Revisit the futility record of 1/28 in about 10 days for CPK as that's our next kick the can time IMO.  There is some hope colder air builds after the 1/20.  We shall see but that record may be challenged this year IMO.

Still think though that I95 can still pull out 12-16" seasonal totals. Just need that cold air to build with a touch of luck.  Too early to say much beyond that.

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 10, 2023 6:35 pm

Absolutely incredible.  We could be looking at > +8 temps this month as things start to even out. 

January Obs & Discussions - Page 2 Temps22

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 11, 2023 9:08 pm

Put this in here now for Saturday.

Need a few more bumps west for E LI.  72 hours out so it's possible. Every other storm this season seems to trend west.  Very few OTS type deals this season. 


January Obs & Discussions - Page 2 Eps61

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 11, 2023 9:50 pm

On the 00Z Nam it's literally a matter of the ULL catching up to mid level energy.  Ridge is pushing on the trough, but a closed off ULL catching up to mid-level energy can do wonders. See how this one trends...

January Obs & Discussions - Page 2 Nam50

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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 11, 2023 9:59 pm

heehaw453 wrote:On the 00Z Nam it's literally a matter of the ULL catching up to mid level energy.  Ridge is pushing on the trough, but a closed off ULL catching up to mid-level energy can do wonders. See how this one trends...

January Obs & Discussions - Page 2 Nam50
January Obs & Discussions - Page 2 B8add110
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Post by dkodgis Thu Jan 12, 2023 6:51 am

31. A faint dusting. I went outside and with a stick I scrawled: “OTHELIAAAAAAAAAAAA”
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Jan 12, 2023 6:56 am

dkodgis wrote:31. A faint dusting. I went outside and with a stick I scrawled: “OTHELIAAAAAAAAAAAA”

LOL
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 12, 2023 7:21 am

These scenarios favor SNE due to geography. But it's still just a matter of the ULL catching the mid-level energy in time.  Very very close for E LI.

January Obs & Discussions - Page 2 Euro94

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Jan 12, 2023 7:36 am

32 light snow, a dusting on roofs, lawn and cars.
Typical late Wall tease before we turn to Wing.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 12, 2023 8:11 am

heehaw453 wrote:These scenarios favor SNE due to geography. But it's still just a matter of the ULL catching the mid-level energy in time.  Very very close for E LI.

January Obs & Discussions - Page 2 Euro94

January Obs & Discussions - Page 2 Here10

January Obs & Discussions - Page 2 ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2FuEDRfsf9k8wAE%2Fgiphy

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.25"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 12, 2023 9:27 am

Keep trending this and you're in it for several inches. Go get this one!  

January Obs & Discussions - Page 2 Eps63

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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 12, 2023 10:00 am

heehaw453 wrote:Keep trending this and you're in it for several inches. Go get this one!  

January Obs & Discussions - Page 2 Eps63

Now the NAM is messing with me




CMC Same deal...close enough to drive the madness




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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.25"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by phil155 Thu Jan 12, 2023 10:05 am

Would be nice if this can trend west a bit more and maybe give the I95 something to smile about

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 12, 2023 10:14 am

phil155 wrote:Would be nice if this can trend west a bit more and maybe give the I95 something to smile about
The upper level energy is too far apart from lower level energy IMO for anything west of Suffolk County, LI.  Cape Cod is going to be impacted from this and possibly sig. Suffolk County LI could have minor/moderate impacts, but it's going to take continued trending towards faster consolidation.  Other than that folks can't see it for anyone else. Just rooting for the LI folks on this one...

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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 12, 2023 11:18 am

heehaw453 wrote:
phil155 wrote:Would be nice if this can trend west a bit more and maybe give the I95 something to smile about
The upper level energy is too far apart from lower level energy IMO for anything west of Suffolk County, LI.  Cape Cod is going to be impacted from this and possibly sig. Suffolk County LI could have minor/moderate impacts, but it's going to take continued trending towards faster consolidation.  Other than that folks can't see it for anyone else. Just rooting for the LI folks on this one...

THANK YOU!
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 12, 2023 1:21 pm

All out blizzard for Cape Cod to Plymouth on Euro. Wow.  Euro just blows this thing up. Probably would get CCB right into LI.  So starved for snow I may road trip it...


January Obs & Discussions - Page 2 Euro95

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 12, 2023 3:46 pm

18Z NAM the ULL starts retrograding back to the coast.  Mixing issues.  Can't make this stuff up.  NAM is always good for a screwy run. With no skin in the game it's so much easier to watch...

January Obs & Discussions - Page 2 Nam51

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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 12, 2023 4:06 pm

heehaw453 wrote:18Z NAM the ULL starts retrograding back to the coast.  Mixing issues.  Can't make this stuff up.  NAM is always good for a screwy run. With no skin in the game it's so much easier to watch...

January Obs & Discussions - Page 2 Nam51

Im getting killed at work today so I havent been able to look through the maps as detailed as Id like, but just did a quick look at the NAM and nearly fell out of my chair. Temp profile is not great but where the precip shield makes it to...Madonne.

Ill take the 18z NAM precip shield with the euro temp profiles for a $1000 Alex.

QPF


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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.25"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by phil155 Thu Jan 12, 2023 4:17 pm

Just a little further west. My fingers are crossed

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 12, 2023 4:45 pm

sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:18Z NAM the ULL starts retrograding back to the coast.  Mixing issues.  Can't make this stuff up.  NAM is always good for a screwy run. With no skin in the game it's so much easier to watch...

January Obs & Discussions - Page 2 Nam51

Im getting killed at work today so I havent been able to look through the maps as detailed as Id like, but just did a quick look at the NAM and nearly fell out of my chair.  Temp profile is not great but where the precip shield makes it to...Madonne.  

Ill take the 18z NAM precip shield with the euro temp profiles for a $1000 Alex.  

QPF

The temp issues probably due to sucking in PAC air and not anything n/s.  but my guess is the column would cool enough for snow.  got reel it in first to have a chance...

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Jan 12, 2023 5:36 pm

Holy Thunder and lightning wow..came up to 54*
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Post by docstox12 Thu Jan 12, 2023 7:17 pm

39 degrees moderate rain, calm winds.That is all from the gloomy LHV.
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Post by amugs Thu Jan 12, 2023 7:50 pm

Tstorms - thunder and lightening in winter usually means a snowstorm ~ within 10 days!!

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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Jan 13, 2023 10:47 am

57* on Jan 13th just crazy have windows open. sad day!
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 13, 2023 10:55 am

One man's Gold is another man's garbage...I think that's the saying..

January Obs & Discussions - Page 2 YearTDeptUS

January Obs & Discussions - Page 2 ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia1.tenor.com%2Fimages%2Fbc65db54466ccb1c980993084132f640%2Ftenor

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.25"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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