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January Obs & Discussions

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 31, 2023 9:58 am

amugs wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:This is the 12Z RGEM.  IMO this is going to blow up just a bit and produce snowfall with below freezing surface temps down to the coast.

January Obs & Discussions - Page 10 Rgem17

RGEM has been on this for days now.
Yes it has. The wave is weak, but the temp gradient can give this some extra lift. I expect some moderate to locally heavy snow out of this for a bit in our eastern areas. 
January Obs & Discussions - Page 10 Tempgr10

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Post by SENJsnowman Tue Jan 31, 2023 10:43 am

The radar did giveth, but now the radar hath now taken away. Looks like the precip has scooted south and is headed off shore already. Hopefully not a harbinger for tonight, whose prospects are bleak even at full strength. Lol.

Ahhh, the Wall of our discontent continues…CP, does Wing start tomorrow or how does this work?

36* and cloudy in Bayville.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 31, 2023 10:50 am

SENJsnowman wrote:The radar did giveth, but now the radar hath now taken away. Looks like the precip has scooted south and is headed off shore already. Hopefully not a harbinger for tonight, whose prospects are bleak even at full strength. Lol.

Ahhh, the Wall of our discontent continues…CP, does Wing start tomorrow or how does this work?

36* and cloudy in Bayville.

SENJsnowman, you are correct.

Wing begins tomorrow and ends March 31. Spring begins April 1.
Today ends one of the most disappointing Wall seasons (Dec 1 to Jan 31) in memory.

Good luck tomorrow, hopefully you are in one of the better spots to at least begin Wing with some white.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Jan 31, 2023 10:53 am

37* a little spritz here and there and a little bit of icing for a min or 2 and I saw a flake...just another gloomy wet day..but I hope everyone has a good one!
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 31, 2023 10:59 am

This is 12z GFS for tomorrow morning.  I would take the heavier snow into E LI too.  To me Jersey Coast to E LI in line for 1-2" tomorrow.

January Obs & Discussions - Page 10 Gfs151

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Post by phil155 Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:46 am

had some snow flurries here in Edison about 20 mins ago

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Post by kalleg Tue Jan 31, 2023 12:00 pm

Light snow, 37* in New Hope...

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Post by phil155 Tue Jan 31, 2023 12:28 pm

more light(very light snow here in Edison. I am taking this as a good sign for a dusting this evening and in this winter that is a win

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 31, 2023 12:39 pm

I'm feeling an over performer tomorrow morning for JC and E LI. I'm not saying 6" of snow, but don't be surprised to see locally 3" where the best lift sets up.  When you see this kind air mass clash so close together you get extra lift with the slightest perturbation of the atmosphere. These two pics demonstrate that IMO.  Good luck to those in the favored areas.

January Obs & Discussions - Page 10 Tempsn12
January Obs & Discussions - Page 10 Lift11

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 31, 2023 12:45 pm

Light snow.  Actually feels like a January day IMBY.  35/31

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 31, 2023 2:06 pm

phil155 wrote:more light(very light snow here in Edison. I am taking this as a good sign for a dusting this evening and in this winter that is a win
I have to agree with that.  Clearly the temp gradient is going to enhance instability.

January Obs & Discussions - Page 10 Temps24

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 31, 2023 3:07 pm

I know you guys are talk bout tomorrow but no one has mentioned the historic cold thats coming fri/sat saying actual temps -10 to -20 NYC and as low as -100 in VT!!! Gonna be a lot pipes bursting and no heat. I saw this on accuwx so please tell me I am wrong, our apartment is cold as it is, like that I will have to wear my snowsuit inside.
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 31, 2023 3:08 pm

Light snow continues and temp continues to drop.  I'm awaiting this winter's usual output of 1/2". 

32.2/29.8

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 31, 2023 3:27 pm

Started a thread for tonight's light snow event.

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 01, 2023 8:28 am

January temps ran about +9.8 AN at CPK. This was the warmest January on record.

We just went through the worst January for winter weather in at least 153 years.  LoL.

January Obs & Discussions - Page 10 Temps25

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