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January Obs & Discussions

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 30, 2023 10:53 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:It will all depend on how strong the wave is.  If it's strong enough this will be a few inch type of deal right to the coast.  Just have to see how much lift this thing can give us.

Now that NYC set the record it would be nice to finally end the streak. I'm not counting on it for them though.

I wont completely rule it out either I too cant say Im super thrilled. There is a clear west to east flow and a baroclinic zone. All that is needed is just a little impulse to trigger some increased vertical motion.

The rgem has been most robust with this brining that trigger far enough north to affect the area. However; pretty much all other models have been much further south. Even todays 12z rgem has trended south with the edge of the mid level energy.

First image is rgem 500mb energy from its prev run followed by 12z. Pay attention to where the yellow streak is on the first image vs second. Further south by a bunch.




The result at the surface between the two positions looks like this:


January Obs & Discussions - Page 9 1675260000-x78qXwqFXw0


Bottom line is that the one model who was calling for a little snow trended towards al the others who havent had anything doing thuis far. Again a shift of the mid level energy N by 30-50 miles could mean a little white for some, but I am not hoilding my breath

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 30, 2023 11:36 am

sroc4 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:It will all depend on how strong the wave is.  If it's strong enough this will be a few inch type of deal right to the coast.  Just have to see how much lift this thing can give us.

Now that NYC set the record it would be nice to finally end the streak. I'm not counting on it for them though.

I wont completely rule it out either I too cant say Im super thrilled.   There is a clear west to east flow and a baroclinic zone.  All that is needed is just a little impulse to trigger some increased vertical motion.  

The rgem has been most robust with this brining that trigger far enough north to affect the area.  However; pretty much all other models have been much further south.  Even todays 12z rgem has trended south with the edge of the mid level energy.  

First image is rgem 500mb energy from its prev run followed by 12z.  Pay attention to where the yellow streak is on the first image vs second.  Further south by a bunch.




The result at the surface between the two positions looks like this:


January Obs & Discussions - Page 9 1675260000-x78qXwqFXw0


Bottom line is that the one model who was calling for a little snow trended towards al the others who havent had anything doing thuis far.  Again a shift of the mid level energy N by 30-50 miles could mean a little white for some, but I am not hoilding my breath
I would take the under every single time this winter until it shows a little somethin somethin. Independent events are not so independent when it comes to propensities where snow falls.

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Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 30, 2023 12:04 pm

I hope this produces for our S and E crew who have really been treated badly this Wall and to end this horrible snowless streak in NYC.It's not a streak like Joe DiMaggio's where you wish it could have gone on forever.We are so due for a surprise.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 30, 2023 12:34 pm

Wouldn’t surprise me if N&W gets a burst of snow tonight into early tomorrow morning. Would likely be rain for those near the coast

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Post by 1190ftalt Tue Jan 31, 2023 4:24 am

Started snowing at 3:45, sticking to grass and cars, roads not so much , 31 degrees.
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Post by 1190ftalt Tue Jan 31, 2023 5:59 am

Snowing hard now sticking to roads and grass, 29 degrees at 5:50 in the am.January Obs & Discussions - Page 9 A4e4a410
January Obs & Discussions - Page 9 3cd37510
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 31, 2023 6:13 am

Light snow 30 degrees.
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Post by docstox12 Tue Jan 31, 2023 6:17 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Light snow 30 degrees.

Same here CP, looks like a good coating ATM.
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Post by Radz Tue Jan 31, 2023 6:24 am

Light snow 31* also grass and cars coated
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 31, 2023 6:47 am

Rain, sleet and snow in Jersey City

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Post by dkodgis Tue Jan 31, 2023 6:55 am

Woke up to a coating of snow. 30 degrees. A decent coating. Even the trees are coated a bit
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 31, 2023 6:58 am

Snow reported. No accumulations just a trace.  32.5/32.3

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 31, 2023 7:35 am

29.3° light snow continues, trees and grass a nice cover. Mother nature just teasing us again.

I'm guessing 0.5 inches.
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 31, 2023 7:51 am

This is the first time in recorded history that all NYC area stations have reported no measurable snowfall in January.  To be fair CPK records go back further than all other stations so the 1890 occurrence not sure on the others, but EWR does go back to at least 1933 and it did have measurable snowfall whilst CPK didn't.


ISP, CPK, JFK, LGA, EWR.  You will never see this again in your lifetime.

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Post by brownie Tue Jan 31, 2023 7:55 am

I woke up to the sound of sleet hitting the windows at 4:30 am.  At some point it changed to snow, which has now stopped. There is the barest trace of snow on the grass and deck. Absolutely not measurable.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:02 am

Snow pretty much over. Just took the official measurement, 0.3 inches a HUGE over performer. Jacks the seasonal total up to 7.6 inches.

The nightmare continues. Somebody please wake me up.
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Post by dkodgis Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:05 am

All that road salt. All that sand. All that beet juice. All that overtime. All that lowering the tax rate

If this were Fri, it would be a frozen glaze. And ugly for a commute.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:19 am

heehaw453 wrote:This is the first time in recorded history that all NYC area stations have reported no measurable snowfall in January.  To be fair CPK records go back further than all other stations so the 1890 occurrence not sure on the others, but EWR does go back to at least 1933 and it did have measurable snowfall whilst CPK didn't.


ISP, CPK, JFK, LGA, EWR.  You will never see this again in your lifetime.

I wish that were true, but with the continued warming I'm not so sure about that. As I've watched the average temperatures climb steadily in Winter for the last 40 years I'm pretty sure this happens again at least once in the next 40, maybe more than once.
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Post by SENJsnowman Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:22 am

App says a few hours of snow for the north half of coastal Ocean county, from like 10 am through 1 pm. We shall see, but still a very nice surprise opportunity to wake up to. Holding for the season at a trace amount that we got on cars and cans two or three Friday nights ago and two other ‘flakings’. So, if we can get to that .3 down here this morning, strike up the band!!  And just imagine if we also get that .3 tonight that might hit the coast…good times!!  Ha ha. I’m pretty sure I’m not even joking.  🙃 🙃


Last edited by SENJsnowman on Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:39 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by docstox12 Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:32 am

Looks like 1/2 inch on colder surfaces here.Partly cloudy now and calm winds.
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Post by SENJsnowman Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:36 am

39* with mixed precip/sleet here in Bayville, exit 80 GSP.

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Post by amugs Tue Jan 31, 2023 9:38 am

Coating on colder surfaces at 33* this morning from 6:00 until about 7:30amish

Felt like winter!!

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 31, 2023 9:39 am

SENJsnowman wrote:App says a few hours of snow for the north half of coastal Ocean county, from like 10 am through 1 pm. We shall see, but still a very nice surprise opportunity to wake up to. Holding for the season at a trace amount that we got on cars and cans two or three Friday nights ago and two other ‘flakings’. So, if we can get to that .3 down here this morning, strike up the band!!  And just imagine if we also get that .3 tonight that might hit the coast…good times!!  Ha ha. I’m pretty sure I’m not even joking.  🙃 🙃
January Obs & Discussions - Page 9 Li10

Long Island Folks....3K, 12k NAM; the 2.5 and 10k RGEM, and the HRRR all have an inch or 2 from about somewhere between Rte 83 and William floyd Parkway on east for tomorrow am.  Our starting point temp wise will be much colder, so accumulations will start most likely onm contact with the first flakes.

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 31, 2023 9:45 am

This is the 12Z RGEM.  IMO this is going to blow up just a bit and produce snowfall with below freezing surface temps down to the coast.

January Obs & Discussions - Page 9 Rgem17

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Post by amugs Tue Jan 31, 2023 9:51 am

heehaw453 wrote:This is the 12Z RGEM.  IMO this is going to blow up just a bit and produce snowfall with below freezing surface temps down to the coast.

January Obs & Discussions - Page 9 Rgem17

RGEM has been on this for days now.

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 31, 2023 9:58 am

amugs wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:This is the 12Z RGEM.  IMO this is going to blow up just a bit and produce snowfall with below freezing surface temps down to the coast.

January Obs & Discussions - Page 9 Rgem17

RGEM has been on this for days now.
Yes it has. The wave is weak, but the temp gradient can give this some extra lift. I expect some moderate to locally heavy snow out of this for a bit in our eastern areas. 
January Obs & Discussions - Page 9 Tempgr10

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Post by SENJsnowman Tue Jan 31, 2023 10:43 am

The radar did giveth, but now the radar hath now taken away. Looks like the precip has scooted south and is headed off shore already. Hopefully not a harbinger for tonight, whose prospects are bleak even at full strength. Lol.

Ahhh, the Wall of our discontent continues…CP, does Wing start tomorrow or how does this work?

36* and cloudy in Bayville.

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