January Obs & Discussions

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:It will all depend on how strong the wave is.  If it's strong enough this will be a few inch type of deal right to the coast.  Just have to see how much lift this thing can give us.

Now that NYC set the record it would be nice to finally end the streak. I'm not counting on it for them though.

I wont completely rule it out either I too cant say Im super thrilled. There is a clear west to east flow and a baroclinic zone. All that is needed is just a little impulse to trigger some increased vertical motion.

The rgem has been most robust with this brining that trigger far enough north to affect the area. However; pretty much all other models have been much further south. Even todays 12z rgem has trended south with the edge of the mid level energy.

First image is rgem 500mb energy from its prev run followed by 12z. Pay attention to where the yellow streak is on the first image vs second. Further south by a bunch.




The result at the surface between the two positions looks like this:





Bottom line is that the one model who was calling for a little snow trended towards al the others who havent had anything doing thuis far. Again a shift of the mid level energy N by 30-50 miles could mean a little white for some, but I am not hoilding my breath

sroc4 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:It will all depend on how strong the wave is.  If it's strong enough this will be a few inch type of deal right to the coast.  Just have to see how much lift this thing can give us.

Now that NYC set the record it would be nice to finally end the streak. I'm not counting on it for them though.

I wont completely rule it out either I too cant say Im super thrilled.   There is a clear west to east flow and a baroclinic zone.  All that is needed is just a little impulse to trigger some increased vertical motion.  

The rgem has been most robust with this brining that trigger far enough north to affect the area.  However; pretty much all other models have been much further south.  Even todays 12z rgem has trended south with the edge of the mid level energy.  

First image is rgem 500mb energy from its prev run followed by 12z.  Pay attention to where the yellow streak is on the first image vs second.  Further south by a bunch.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/rgem-all/ne/vort500_z500/1675058400/1675260000-anDjsiQZqyQ.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/rgem-all/ne/vort500_z500/1675080000/1675260000-naaFxRl3iS4.png

The result at the surface between the two positions looks like this:

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/rgem-all/ne/instant_ptype/1675058400/1675260000-pjuPjpfvymY.png

Bottom line is that the one model who was calling for a little snow trended towards al the others who havent had anything doing thuis far.  Again a shift of the mid level energy N by 30-50 miles could mean a little white for some, but I am not hoilding my breath

I would take the under every single time this winter until it shows a little somethin somethin. Independent events are not so independent when it comes to propensities where snow falls.

I hope this produces for our S and E crew who have really been treated badly this Wall and to end this horrible snowless streak in NYC.It's not a streak like Joe DiMaggio's where you wish it could have gone on forever.We are so due for a surprise.

Wouldn’t surprise me if N&W gets a burst of snow tonight into early tomorrow morning. Would likely be rain for those near the coast

Started snowing at 3:45, sticking to grass and cars, roads not so much , 31 degrees.

Snowing hard now sticking to roads and grass, 29 degrees at 5:50 in the am.

Light snow 30 degrees.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Light snow 30 degrees.

Same here CP, looks like a good coating ATM.

Light snow 31* also grass and cars coated

Rain, sleet and snow in Jersey City

Woke up to a coating of snow. 30 degrees. A decent coating. Even the trees are coated a bit

Snow reported. No accumulations just a trace.  32.5/32.3

29.3° light snow continues, trees and grass a nice cover. Mother nature just teasing us again.

I'm guessing 0.5 inches.

I woke up to the sound of sleet hitting the windows at 4:30 am.  At some point it changed to snow, which has now stopped. There is the barest trace of snow on the grass and deck. Absolutely not measurable.

Snow pretty much over. Just took the official measurement, 0.3 inches a HUGE over performer. Jacks the seasonal total up to 7.6 inches.

The nightmare continues. Somebody please wake me up.

All that road salt. All that sand. All that beet juice. All that overtime. All that lowering the tax rate

If this were Fri, it would be a frozen glaze. And ugly for a commute.

heehaw453 wrote:This is the first time in recorded history that all NYC area stations have reported no measurable snowfall in January.  To be fair CPK records go back further than all other stations so the 1890 occurrence not sure on the others, but EWR does go back to at least 1933 and it did have measurable snowfall whilst CPK didn't.


ISP, CPK, JFK, LGA, EWR.  You will never see this again in your lifetime.

I wish that were true, but with the continued warming I'm not so sure about that. As I've watched the average temperatures climb steadily in Winter for the last 40 years I'm pretty sure this happens again at least once in the next 40, maybe more than once.

App says a few hours of snow for the north half of coastal Ocean county, from like 10 am through 1 pm. We shall see, but still a very nice surprise opportunity to wake up to. Holding for the season at a trace amount that we got on cars and cans two or three Friday nights ago and two other ‘flakings’. So, if we can get to that .3 down here this morning, strike up the band!!  And just imagine if we also get that .3 tonight that might hit the coast…good times!!  Ha ha. I’m pretty sure I’m not even joking.  

Looks like 1/2 inch on colder surfaces here.Partly cloudy now and calm winds.

39* with mixed precip/sleet here in Bayville, exit 80 GSP.

Coating on colder surfaces at 33* this morning from 6:00 until about 7:30amish

Felt like winter!!

SENJsnowman wrote:App says a few hours of snow for the north half of coastal Ocean county, from like 10 am through 1 pm. We shall see, but still a very nice surprise opportunity to wake up to. Holding for the season at a trace amount that we got on cars and cans two or three Friday nights ago and two other ‘flakings’. So, if we can get to that .3 down here this morning, strike up the band!!  And just imagine if we also get that .3 tonight that might hit the coast…good times!!  Ha ha. I’m pretty sure I’m not even joking.  

Long Island Folks....3K, 12k NAM; the 2.5 and 10k RGEM, and the HRRR all have an inch or 2 from about somewhere between Rte 83 and William floyd Parkway on east for tomorrow am.  Our starting point temp wise will be much colder, so accumulations will start most likely onm contact with the first flakes.

This is the 12Z RGEM.  IMO this is going to blow up just a bit and produce snowfall with below freezing surface temps down to the coast.

heehaw453 wrote:This is the 12Z RGEM.  IMO this is going to blow up just a bit and produce snowfall with below freezing surface temps down to the coast.

RGEM has been on this for days now.

amugs wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:This is the 12Z RGEM.  IMO this is going to blow up just a bit and produce snowfall with below freezing surface temps down to the coast.

RGEM has been on this for days now.

Yes it has. The wave is weak, but the temp gradient can give this some extra lift. I expect some moderate to locally heavy snow out of this for a bit in our eastern areas. 

The radar did giveth, but now the radar hath now taken away. Looks like the precip has scooted south and is headed off shore already. Hopefully not a harbinger for tonight, whose prospects are bleak even at full strength. Lol.

Ahhh, the Wall of our discontent continues…CP, does Wing start tomorrow or how does this work?

36* and cloudy in Bayville.