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February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm

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February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm Empty February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 26, 2023 9:00 pm

I thought @sroc4 put together a tremendous post earlier to showcase the big picture pattern and the driving mechanisms behind tomorrow's winter storm. So here it is again:

sroc4 wrote:Morning Folks.  Lets get right into it.  I'm pretty confident we are going to see accumulation snow Monday night into Tuesday morning if you live north of, draw a line SW to NE, between say Trenton NJ to Sandy hook out to Montauk point.  South of there will struggle.  

A few key points:  
1) We have needed to see our 500mb energy stay south of Long Island.  All models have trended to this soln; however, there are still subtle differences to just how far south and how strong and concentrated vs more strung out is it between models.  (Below is GFS and Euro 500mb vort maps.  Notice these differences)

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm Gfs-de45
February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm Ecmwf118

2)  Point two:  If you have been following along this past week I have wanted to see the SOI remain negative through the weekend.  Reason for this is that all winter it has remained in mod positive territory which is a La Nina base state.  Combined with the MJO prev running through warm phases 3-4-5-6, this base state of the atmosphere typically allows any energy coming out of the SW CONUS to amplify over the center of the country which pumps the SE ridge, allowing the energy to bully its way into the great lakes; flooding the entire NE region with warm air ahead of our systems.  

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm 500mb_22
February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm 500mb_23

Unfortunately the SOI has trended back into positive territory over the past 3 days after only spending 3 days in the negative.  https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/.  My concern with this would be that if nothing else changed then the prev atmospheric forcing pattern that has been entrenched all winter would settle back in allowing this Mondays potential to trend right back to the GL cutter soln.  BUT hold on because even though the SOI isnt ideal there are afew other big picture items that are likely to allow this to happen for Monday AND maybe even allow for the potential for the March 3rd-4th come to fruition as well.  One at a time though.  

3) Take a quick look back at the last two maps and notice the big circle to our NE.  This is our 50/50 low. If you look at the Anomaly map notice just how green the colors are in the center.  Also note the Reds to the north(our -NAO).  Up until now with the aforementioned pattern entrenched, La Nina base state and MJO in warm phases, anything that has resembled a 50/50 low in the past had been easily booted as our system amplified over the central CONUS an the SE ridge flexed.  But this time is def diff.  Reason?  the Stratospheric warming that has occurred.  That's right Mugsy had been talking about this quite a bit a few couple of weeks ago, and its effects are clearly going to help us here.  

Lets explore just how real quick.  How exactly does a strat warm event help?  This illustration is somewhat oversimplified but gets the main point across.  Here is a little mind exercise.  I want you to pretend you are an alien hovering high above earth centered over the north pole looking down and this is what you see.  

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm Ecmwf-13

What you are looking at here is the temp profile for the strat at about 50mb or approx 63,000 feet above sea level.  Now I want to think about the fact that when air warms it expands, and when it cools it contracts.  Ok.  Still looking straight down at this map from space pretend that that the circle is a balloon filled with air in the stratosphere.  Immediately below the balloon is another balloon over the north pole in the troposphere.  Now I want you to take your space ship from hovering directly over the top of the north pole and now fly it such that you are now hovering centered over the equator.  Now we are perpendicular to the north pole.  So what we are visualizing here is two balloons stacked directly on top of one another centered over the north pole.  

Now when we have a strat warming event I want you to visualize the fact that the air within the strat balloon is going to expand.  now reference the image below.  As the strat balloon expands it cannot expand further out higher in altitude because its out into space.  So instead it begins to expand outward and down.  As it expands down in height you can now visualize that the result is going to be to compress the tropospheric balloon below it.  As you press on the center of the trop balloon, since it can compress into the surface of the ground you can imagine the balloon only being able to expand outward.  (Put a balloon on a table and press down into the center of the balloon with a fist.  You can see the balloon expand outward right?).  

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm Strat_12

With this visual, understand that when the strat warms over the N pole like this it in essence dislodges pieces of the tropospheric polar vortex(arctic and polar air masses) southward in latitude because of the downward pressure exerted on it by a warming and expanding strat Polar vortex.  Again keep your balloon analogy in mind here.
February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm Ecmwf119

So how does this tie into our discussion about Mondays snow potential?  Despite the fact that the SOI, or more appropriately put the Trop Pac forcing is still less than ideal, the DEEP 500mb trough in our 50/50 region combined with the -NAO is NOT going to budge much because of the force exerted on the troposphere from above.  


February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm 500mb_22

 THIS right here is a fundamental difference and key factor as to why this is different setup with a likely different outcome than what we've seen all winter and why accumulating snow is going to happen for many of us on this board.  

So to bring this back around instead of our amplifying system over the central CONUS pumping the SE ridge and bullying its way into the GL its going to run into this 50/50low/-NAO block that isnt going to move much due to the forces exerted on it from the Strat.  The result is our closed ULL w'll head into the Ohio valley before running into the block, opening up, and forced ESE, and exit the coast S of Long Island.  At least thats the current consensus on the models.

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm 500mb_25

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm Ecmwf120
February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm Ecmwf121

Its a comlpex set up as you can see by the three LP look.  There is a HP to our north with exceptionally cold air to work with as seen by this 850mb temp anomaly map.  This air mass is Arctic in origin and as you can see is about 12-20*C below normal at its center.    

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm Ecmwf122

Some of the finer details that need ironing is the fact that the surface and low mid levels will have a SE and ESE wind flow which will likely keep the surface temps above freezing along the coastal plain.  Just how deep this above freezing layer is will dictate just how far away from the 10:1 snow ratio will be.  I would strongly urge you all to reference the Kuch-era snow maps instead of the 10:1 maps as it is likely giving a better representation of the 6:1-8:1 ratios for the coastal plain.  Once you get N of the Ct Coast the ratios are going to go up.  Its still possible that we get even worse ratios along the coastal plain if the soln is closer to the GFS than Euro regarding strength and position of the energy.  

Obviously no amount of snow is going to change my outlook on winter, but I am at least a little excited of the prospects of enough snow to cover my grass.  

WE TRACK!!!!
 What a Face

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February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm Empty Re: February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 26, 2023 9:00 pm

The 50/50 Low and infusion of arctic air is a huge plus. These features have been missing this winter season. For instance, virtually all of this year's storm tracks ended up cutting through the Great Lakes which is the main reason for our lack of snowfall. This time around, we have an HP anchored in northern New England and
CAD - Cold Air Damming - is going to keep cold air firmly in place.

At the height of the storm, 850mb temps range from -4 to -8*C

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm 850mb

However, for the same time stamp, check out what is happening at the surface in terms of temperatures. Pay particular attention to the wind barbs. Scott mentioned this in his write-up as well, but winds are coming out of the east-southeast, and as a result surface temps are above freezing (I-80 north stays below freezing).

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm Surface

As I mentioned in my post earlier today, there is a lot of sloppiness happening at the 500mb level that is going to minimize snowfall amounts for NYC and points S&E. But, those N&W are primed for an all-snow event. If we had more higher latitude blocking and better organization downstream, this could have been a very nice wdespread Mothrazilla-type of an event. But, we take whatever we can get this winter!!

Here is my 1st call snow map

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm 1st-call

I'll intently be monitoring trends overnight and through 12z tomorrow to see if this map needs adjusting. Important to note trending is still happening, and I can see how the 2-4" line gets pulled more S&E. But, it can easily go the other direction where parts of NNJ warm up too quickly. So let's see what happens.

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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 26, 2023 9:13 pm

Hoping to see that 2-4" zone expand south. My gut tells me that may happen with the trends, but . . . my experience with these marginal temperature storms is that the central part of the state usually gets screwed with mixing issues, so this map may very well verify as is.
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 26, 2023 9:20 pm

Latest HRRR.  Bottom line is the trajectory of the L pressure is favorable around I78 on northward.  That doesn't mean a warm nose won't invade if there is slow consolidation or rates aren't ideal.  Shave off an inch if your near coast or your mid-levels are flirting with freezing. Have to look at soundings for your area. This is probably a bit overdone in all honesty.

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm Hrrr11

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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 26, 2023 9:26 pm

I'd take the HRRR right now imby even if I had to shave an inch off. That would be a great event for most on here.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 26, 2023 9:37 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Latest HRRR.  Bottom line is the trajectory of the L pressure is favorable around I78 on northward.  That doesn't mean a warm nose won't invade if there is slow consolidation or rates aren't ideal.  Shave off an inch if your near coast or your mid-levels are flirting with freezing. Have to look at soundings for your area. This is probably a bit overdone in all honesty.

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm Hrrr11

Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 26, 2023 9:42 pm

The HRRR feels like an anomaly / extreme outlier. The 00z NAM did not look too great for coastal sections. Looks like a couple of inches at best.

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Post by WinterColdandSnowisamyth Sun Feb 26, 2023 9:50 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Latest HRRR.  Bottom line is the trajectory of the L pressure is favorable around I78 on northward.  That doesn't mean a warm nose won't invade if there is slow consolidation or rates aren't ideal.  Shave off an inch if your near coast or your mid-levels are flirting with freezing. Have to look at soundings for your area. This is probably a bit overdone in all honesty.

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm Hrrr11

I would caution two things there. It’s a 10-1 ratio map and those can be very misleading in marginal events, especially to those on the mix line and can undercut those in the north.

Also the HRRR I’ve found disappointing this year. The RGEM has been the more reliable short term model IMO.

Will be a nowcast come go time for sure.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 26, 2023 10:47 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The HRRR feels like an anomaly / extreme outlier. The 00z NAM did not look too great for coastal sections. Looks like a couple of inches at best.
Agree, the NAM backed off it's earlier higher amounts near coastal areas are pushed north and it changes to sleet/even rain at coast, its pretty in line with your snow map with 2-4 NYC area. I would love to see the darker blue come down to the coast but I don't think that happens, but who knows, not counting on anything here just gonna nowcast it. Sadly I cannot pull a all nighter tomorrow as have very hectic day Tuesday for work, now with remote work there will never be snow days again except for I guess maybe people who work in schools, but even schools are doing remote for snowdays.
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Post by WinterColdandSnowisamyth Mon Feb 27, 2023 3:53 am

Winter storm warning for orange county NY for 5-8 inches.

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Post by brownie Mon Feb 27, 2023 5:00 am

Winter storm warning for Morris County for 5-8 inches.  Although Eyewitness News reports that, they’re still saying only 1-3 inches for Morris as of 4:50 am. I wonder who will be correct?

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Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 27, 2023 5:25 am

Upton. Personally I think this is too aggressive

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm 73b6b510

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Post by frank 638 Mon Feb 27, 2023 5:35 am

sroc4 wrote:Upton. Personally I think this is too aggressive

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm 73b6b510
I still don’t understand why national weather service weather weather channel has me for 2-4 inches of snow . Compared to 1010 wins they say coating to a inch followed by quick change over to rain for the city and coast

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Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 27, 2023 6:07 am

frank 638 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Upton. Personally I think this is too aggressive

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm 73b6b510
I still don’t understand why national weather service weather weather channel has me for 2-4 inches of snow . Compared to 1010 wins they say coating to a inch followed by quick change over to rain for the city and coast

Well all I will say is that there are models, global and SR Hi res, that have been backing off totals.  As I had mentioned in my bigger write up yest, and Frank mentioned again there will be an ESE fetch with surface winds off the water.  Surface temps along the coastal plain will struggle.  In all of the modeling they appear to want to hover in and around the 34-35* mark across most of LI and NYC metro.  Dew points will start in the mid to upper 20's when the precip moves in area wide which will def drop temps but they will slowly rise.  Honestly across the entire coastal plain if you are under the heavier bands you will accumulate quickly, but the further south on LI and NYC proper you live, the threat of a change over to rain is real under lighter precip.

I just looked at soundings.  There is a big difference between the JFK sounding and the Central Park sounding.  10-20 miles could be difference between 4" and a coating to an inch.  FWIW the euro has consistently backed off QPF and snow totals ever so slightly for three consecutive runs and yet the GFS has not.  NAM shows what 1010 wins is predicting and HRRR last night showed 6-10 area wide.  

Bottom line while I will be model watching today for trends perhaps, we are almost in game time mode, aka now cast mode.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 27, 2023 6:51 am

sroc4 wrote:Upton. Personally I think this is too aggressive

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm 73b6b510
that map has a literal warm nose just north of white plains ny lol
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 27, 2023 7:01 am

The HRRR continues dipping the mid-levels lower.  That will matter for northern Ocean Cty. Can't underestimate closing off the mid-levels in the right location.

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm Hrrr13

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm Hrrr12

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 27, 2023 7:10 am

The wsw versus the advisory in a small cut out of the eastern most county of nj and westchester county while still being at the same latitude from west to east makes no sense. 5 to 8 is a big jump from what were saying last night. Though technically if my area reaches the higher end of the advisory it will be warning level.snowfall so advisor warning wont really matter. Just hope they prepare roads dont want repeat of i think 2017. Lets see how this plays out.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Mon Feb 27, 2023 7:18 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 27, 2023 7:11 am

heehaw453 wrote:The HRRR continues dipping the mid-levels lower.  That will matter for northern Ocean Cty. Can't underestimate closing off the mid-levels in the right location.

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm Hrrr13

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm Hrrr12
wow thats some heavy snow.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 27, 2023 7:19 am

The NAM has a big front end thump of snow for NYC (looks like 2-4”) the changes over to very heavy rain. I was hoping the meat of the storm would be over by sunrise on Tuesday, but one trend I’m noticing is models keep upping the qpf amounts. For coastal sections this isn’t necessarily a good thing because it means whatever snow fell overnight would probably all melt away as I fully expect a changeover to rain by 4-6am

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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 27, 2023 7:25 am

At the risk of over-simplifying, the models are in disagreement and the outcome is highly dependent on placement and strength of the secondary which is almost not knowable right. So I think to a degree (except for the people in far NWNJ, far NNJ, and the LHV who are in a good spot), this is a nowcast event this evening. Little changes could make a difference between a slushy inch and 4 or 5” for a wide swath of people in this region.
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 27, 2023 8:07 am

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm Fp-nqe10
February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm Fp-pls10

WOW!! Fringes on this are always the wildcard.

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 27, 2023 8:11 am

tongue

Euro has been on this. You have EURO and GFS upping amounts, qpf and further S with LP. This is why NWS I would assume is so aggressive as well as HREF product.

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm Image.gif.70e75d16766956fb1c85a6a2f6b74937

HREF great SR product.
February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm Ezgif-5-98d57d9991.gif.b8b064068b83c4e554af75f0ee706bf8

I have to say anyone N of I78 must be reminded this will be the biggest snowfall of the season to date.....Friday n Saturday next one and then.....

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Post by WinterColdandSnowisamyth Mon Feb 27, 2023 8:16 am

When looking at Upton‘s accumulation map one must remember that these maps do not depict what will be on the ground when the storm is over but what the maximum depth will be at any point in the storm. The difference can be enormous. As an example the northern areas that receive 10 inches of snow and don’t change over will most likely end the storm with 10 inches of snow on the ground. A place like New York City could receive 4 inches of snow at some point, change to rain and end the storm with a slushy inch on the ground. Technically the forecast is then correct for 3 to 4 inches of snow in the city but anyone looking to sleigh ride Tuesday afternoon That could prove difficult.

I realize snow lovers, the more I study them are irrational beings, try to stay rational and temper expectations and you will be better off for it by Tuesday afternoon.Good luck to everyone.

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February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm Empty Re: February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm

Post by CNWestMilford Mon Feb 27, 2023 9:18 am

12z Nam is slightly colder and more thumping for the metro. February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm 9dad2110
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February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm Empty Re: February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 27, 2023 9:29 am

The trend is definitely looking snowier for interior areas away from the coast. LOTS of moisture and higher snow rates will help lift snow amounts by a significant margin. Looks like I'll need to update my snow map later today.

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February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm Empty Re: February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm

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