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February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm

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February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm - Page 4 Empty Re: February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm

Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 27, 2023 2:48 pm

WinterColdandSnowisamyth wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Dont panick too much yet folks.  Here is the surface temps valid as of 2pm and then again by 7pm.  Temps will drop again.  Its all part of the plan.  The details as to why I have been referring to the Kuchera maps is because the coastal plain will not likely see great ratios due to these marginal temps.  You just cant look at the 10:1 maps.  The latest Kuchera upgrades have def done much better this season.   Again I know we all want 6+ but its not likely to be the norm along the coastal plain. IMHO.  There will be however areas to over perform as well as underperform....happens every storm   

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm - Page 4 1677524400-brnhHjRP10I

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm - Page 4 1677542400-BOpqdXoI0No
Sroc this is about accumulations really.  It will snow I have no doubt, but what I think is push comes to shove the snow depth algorithm is best for this event, not kuchera or 10:1.  This is what I believe reality holds for this event.

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm - Page 4 Snowde14

Nope, this one goes to far to the downside especially for the northern areas. I still stick with the Kuchera map that Frank posted a little while ago. Seemed very reasonable with amounts from north to south.
We'll see.  The GFS one backs it up too for the northern area and I have found it very good at these marginal temp events. I think it's reasonable to see ASL locales > 1200' get 6" +, but lower elevations I'm not so sure. 

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm - Page 4 Gfs169

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February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm - Page 4 Empty Re: February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm

Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 27, 2023 2:51 pm

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm - Page 4 Pmsl

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 27, 2023 3:03 pm

sroc4 wrote:February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm - Page 4 Pmsl

Che cazz'?

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 27, 2023 3:23 pm

The ULL has opened up pretty close to as modelled.

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm - Page 4 Ull19

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Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 27, 2023 3:26 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
sroc4 wrote:February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm - Page 4 Pmsl

Che cazz'?

IDK Looks like the SLP is being deflected already.

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 27, 2023 3:39 pm

Latest HRRR way off with the ULL opening up.  It had that at after 22Z.  NAM 3k is close to reality. It started to open up after 19Z and completely opened by 20Z.

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm - Page 4 Nam57

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February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm - Page 4 Empty Re: February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 27, 2023 4:00 pm

NAM got pretty warm

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm - Page 4 Captur13

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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 27, 2023 4:04 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:NAM got pretty warm

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm - Page 4 Captur13

*Dislike*
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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 27, 2023 4:08 pm

Leading edge of the precipitation on the radar already in Eastern PA and encroaching on New Jersey. With current temps, this will likely start as rain for some people -- and where it does start as snow I wouldn't expect anything to stick too quickly.
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Post by phil155 Mon Feb 27, 2023 4:12 pm

sitting at about 42 in edison, expecting this to at least start as rain and what snow may fall I am not expecting much of any accumulation unless rates are very impressive

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 27, 2023 4:20 pm

billg315 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:NAM got pretty warm

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm - Page 4 Captur13

*Dislike*
I concur, I am placing my expectations at maybe some snow with 0 otg in the am. Hence keeping my total at 0 for season. But we will see who knows honestly, this is a major nowcast except well inland.
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Post by phil155 Mon Feb 27, 2023 4:43 pm

Down to 39 here now so we will see. I do expect to see snow falling but not expecting much of anything on the ground

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February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm - Page 4 Empty Re: February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm

Post by WinterColdandSnowisamyth Mon Feb 27, 2023 4:51 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
billg315 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:NAM got pretty warm

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm - Page 4 Captur13

*Dislike*
I concur, I am placing my expectations at maybe some snow with 0 otg in the am. Hence keeping my total at 0 for season. But we will see who knows honestly, this is a major nowcast except well inland.

Smart move. Some of those earlier maps showing 10 inches in Yonkers were very misleading but I think you realized that. To accumulate more than 2-3inches from this setup with the temperatures predicted in urban areas near the water, the odds are not favorable. Just 25-30 miles north and west of you should be a much different story.

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 27, 2023 4:51 pm

42/22 degrees some flakes falling.  LoL The column completely frozen until 200 feet above my house?

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 27, 2023 5:13 pm

Look at this battle between warm/cold air advection on the 925s.  Temp wet bulbed 6 degrees in 15 minutes.  Some light snow falling 36.5/32. Good CAD over E LI

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm - Page 4 925s15

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Post by kalleg Mon Feb 27, 2023 5:15 pm

Wet surfaces, a few sprinkles coming down, 40* in New Hope

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Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 27, 2023 5:19 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Look at this battle between warm/cold air advection on the 925s.  Temp wet bulbed 6 degrees in 15 minutes.  Some light snow falling 36.5/32. Good CAD over E LI

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm - Page 4 925s15

Only got to 38*. Back down to 35* but literally I have watched my temp drop 1* every 30mins. There def is a good CAD signature over eastenrn LI

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Post by CNWestMilford Mon Feb 27, 2023 5:26 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:NAM got pretty warm

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm - Page 4 Captur13

RGEM and HRRR staying the course though. GFS actually increased QPF and slightly colder..lolFebruary 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm - Page 4 Da2d0b10
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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 27, 2023 5:34 pm

Just got home to central Hunterdon County. Temp is down to 40* after getting up to 46* here. But more interestingly it is . . snowing. The warm layer must be pretty shallow because the snowflakes were falling to the ground on the ride home even as the temp was slightly above 40*. Have to believe with the temperature dropping right now, that is a good sign.

Right now 40* with Light Snow.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 27, 2023 5:37 pm

billg315 wrote:Just got home to central Hunterdon County. Temp is down to 40* after getting up to 46* here. But more interestingly it is . . snowing. The warm layer must be pretty shallow because the snowflakes were falling to the ground on the ride home even as the temp was slightly above 40*. Have to believe with the temperature dropping right now, that is a good sign.

Right now 40* with Light Snow.
Weird, just goes to show that the saying if it isn't 32 or below it won't snow isn't true, stickage however will be a issue at that temp, but sounds like its dropping pretty fast from west to east, at least one snow map can keep us hopeful lol, i honestly don't care at this point im tired, out of shape big time for storm tracking lol
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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 27, 2023 5:41 pm

I've seen it snow in the mid-to-upper 30s a lot, but 40 or over is usually pushing it. My dewpoint is 28* so that says a lot and there's no question the temp here is dropping fast so whatever warmth was at the surface this afternoon, its vanishing quick. But, you're right, still will be stickage issues at these temps until the precip gets heavier.
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 27, 2023 5:48 pm

35.7/31.  

That's a good punch of CAD on the 850s in EPA.

February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm - Page 4 850s32

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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 27, 2023 6:00 pm

Now down to 38*. Did not take long to wash out today's mild air. Consistent also with what the models showed for the evening temps tonight, so maybe that's a good sign also.
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Post by Coachgriff Mon Feb 27, 2023 6:02 pm

38 and post card snow in East Windsor NJ
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Post by phil155 Mon Feb 27, 2023 6:11 pm

Snow here in edison and metuchen

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Post by 1190ftalt Mon Feb 27, 2023 6:23 pm

Start red snowing 6:00, snowing real hard, grass almost covered ,
Temperature 31.9999999 degrees February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm - Page 4 Bb888410
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Post by DAYBLAZER Mon Feb 27, 2023 6:24 pm

Down to 30 degrees here at about 1000' ASL in the hills of Hopatcong NJ. Light snow started about 30 min ago, and we are now snowing moderately. Sticking to the deck/ground, road just starting to show signs of sticking.

We had a high of 42 as of 1 PM today. An impressive drop.

Hoping for at least 3-5 inches IMBY here as my daughter has yet to experience any sort of significant (+ 5 inches or more) accumulation of snow in her lifetime and she is very invested in making a snowman. Time will tell!

Been following the discussion all week, you guys are the best in the business as far as I'm concerned when it comes to thoughtful weather discussions and general information.
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