February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm
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Frozen.9
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Re: February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm
We'll see. The GFS one backs it up too for the northern area and I have found it very good at these marginal temp events. I think it's reasonable to see ASL locales > 1200' get 6" +, but lower elevations I'm not so sure.WinterColdandSnowisamyth wrote:heehaw453 wrote:Sroc this is about accumulations really. It will snow I have no doubt, but what I think is push comes to shove the snow depth algorithm is best for this event, not kuchera or 10:1. This is what I believe reality holds for this event.sroc4 wrote:Dont panick too much yet folks. Here is the surface temps valid as of 2pm and then again by 7pm. Temps will drop again. Its all part of the plan. The details as to why I have been referring to the Kuchera maps is because the coastal plain will not likely see great ratios due to these marginal temps. You just cant look at the 10:1 maps. The latest Kuchera upgrades have def done much better this season. Again I know we all want 6+ but its not likely to be the norm along the coastal plain. IMHO. There will be however areas to over perform as well as underperform....happens every storm
Nope, this one goes to far to the downside especially for the northern areas. I still stick with the Kuchera map that Frank posted a little while ago. Seemed very reasonable with amounts from north to south.

heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm
sroc4 wrote:
Che cazz'?
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heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm
Frank_Wx wrote:sroc4 wrote:
Che cazz'?
IDK Looks like the SLP is being deflected already.
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Re: February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm
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billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm
Leading edge of the precipitation on the radar already in Eastern PA and encroaching on New Jersey. With current temps, this will likely start as rain for some people -- and where it does start as snow I wouldn't expect anything to stick too quickly.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm
sitting at about 42 in edison, expecting this to at least start as rain and what snow may fall I am not expecting much of any accumulation unless rates are very impressive
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Re: February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm
Down to 39 here now so we will see. I do expect to see snow falling but not expecting much of anything on the ground
phil155- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm
Smart move. Some of those earlier maps showing 10 inches in Yonkers were very misleading but I think you realized that. To accumulate more than 2-3inches from this setup with the temperatures predicted in urban areas near the water, the odds are not favorable. Just 25-30 miles north and west of you should be a much different story.
WinterColdandSnowisamyth- Posts : 23
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Re: February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm
42/22 degrees some flakes falling. LoL The column completely frozen until 200 feet above my house?
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Re: February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm
Wet surfaces, a few sprinkles coming down, 40* in New Hope
kalleg- Posts : 96
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Re: February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm
Only got to 38*. Back down to 35* but literally I have watched my temp drop 1* every 30mins. There def is a good CAD signature over eastenrn LI
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Re: February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm
Just got home to central Hunterdon County. Temp is down to 40* after getting up to 46* here. But more interestingly it is . . snowing. The warm layer must be pretty shallow because the snowflakes were falling to the ground on the ride home even as the temp was slightly above 40*. Have to believe with the temperature dropping right now, that is a good sign.
Right now 40* with Light Snow.
Right now 40* with Light Snow.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm
Weird, just goes to show that the saying if it isn't 32 or below it won't snow isn't true, stickage however will be a issue at that temp, but sounds like its dropping pretty fast from west to east, at least one snow map can keep us hopeful lol, i honestly don't care at this point im tired, out of shape big time for storm tracking lolbillg315 wrote:Just got home to central Hunterdon County. Temp is down to 40* after getting up to 46* here. But more interestingly it is . . snowing. The warm layer must be pretty shallow because the snowflakes were falling to the ground on the ride home even as the temp was slightly above 40*. Have to believe with the temperature dropping right now, that is a good sign.
Right now 40* with Light Snow.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm
I've seen it snow in the mid-to-upper 30s a lot, but 40 or over is usually pushing it. My dewpoint is 28* so that says a lot and there's no question the temp here is dropping fast so whatever warmth was at the surface this afternoon, its vanishing quick. But, you're right, still will be stickage issues at these temps until the precip gets heavier.
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Re: February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm
Now down to 38*. Did not take long to wash out today's mild air. Consistent also with what the models showed for the evening temps tonight, so maybe that's a good sign also.
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Re: February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm
38 and post card snow in East Windsor NJ
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Re: February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm
Snow here in edison and metuchen
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Re: February 27th-28th 2023 Winter Storm
Down to 30 degrees here at about 1000' ASL in the hills of Hopatcong NJ. Light snow started about 30 min ago, and we are now snowing moderately. Sticking to the deck/ground, road just starting to show signs of sticking.
We had a high of 42 as of 1 PM today. An impressive drop.
Hoping for at least 3-5 inches IMBY here as my daughter has yet to experience any sort of significant (+ 5 inches or more) accumulation of snow in her lifetime and she is very invested in making a snowman. Time will tell!
Been following the discussion all week, you guys are the best in the business as far as I'm concerned when it comes to thoughtful weather discussions and general information.
We had a high of 42 as of 1 PM today. An impressive drop.
Hoping for at least 3-5 inches IMBY here as my daughter has yet to experience any sort of significant (+ 5 inches or more) accumulation of snow in her lifetime and she is very invested in making a snowman. Time will tell!
Been following the discussion all week, you guys are the best in the business as far as I'm concerned when it comes to thoughtful weather discussions and general information.
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