UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

Well if you do not expect( which I am not banking on now) I will not be disappointed, I suggest others also do the same, its not looking like it was at the beginning of the week. If it pays the awesome.

New England is going to get buried Saturday-Monday. Easy Roidzilla for them.

The 12z GFS is coming in colder.

I honestly don't see any difference, Frank lol

There is a solid 10 hour period beginning Sunday afternoon when NYC is getting freezing drizzle/showers.

A very nasty ice storm on the 12z GFS for NYC. But it did tick colder. HV gets a Godzilla

rb924119 wrote:I honestly don't see any difference, Frank lol

There is.

6z GFS



12z GFS

Maybe marginally at the surface, but the 850s look even slightly warmer to me. Idk.

NYC is 3-6 inches of snow this run with probably .25+" of ice. HV probably 8+ inches of snow

I just like the trend. That's what I am looking for at this point in time.

When push comes to shove, this is starting to look a bit like the February 2nd storm but colder and weaker

Frank_Wx wrote:NYC is 3-6 inches of snow this run with probably .25+" of ice. HV probably 8+ inches of snow

I just like the trend. That's what I am looking for at this point in time.

No doubt, I'm looking, sitting, sitting, waiting and wishing for the trend too, but I honestly didn't see anything that was very much different regarding the temperatures. Maybe I will in the ensembles when they come out. I hope, at least lmfao

-The 6z GEFS trended south from the 00z GEFS
-The surface low has been trending south due to the northern confluence getting better recognition
-It is only Friday, and last week's storm these trends did not occur until 24-36 hours before. We may be ahead of schedule.

This storm is a far cry from what it could have been, but another moderate hit with ice is still on the table.

Frank_Wx wrote:NYC is 3-6 inches of snow this run with probably .25+" of ice. HV probably 8+ inches of snow

I just like the trend. That's what I am looking for at this point in time.

I am not liking the northern country (Alex that's you, lol totally kidding) but jelous, I want my roidzilla lol, great .25 ice all we need, we escaped it bad last time hopefully we escape it this time too 10 hrs of freezing light rain would be very bad (much easier to accumulate then with a heavy frz, that would be a terrible ice storm and def on the higher end of .25, Al eluded to this and models have shown this more than once, a little concerning, but its trends at this point too early to predict that if I am correct.

So far NWS has no ice accretion map up, if this becomes a trend may show tomorrow, does show a snow map for very little snow through Monday 6am.

Looks a little sloppy. I have a feeling if this trend continues, NYC will be in a solid 4-8" zone, NW NJ/NEPA/HV in a 8-12" zone

NWS BTV Forecast Discussion. I'LL TAKE A FOOT!
DAILY QPF IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE, BUT OVER
TIME (72 HRS: SAT-MON) WILL ADD UP TO ABOUT A HALF TO 1" OF LIQUID.
WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES LOOK OPTIMAL FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH WITH SLR`S
LIKELY IN THE 15-25:1 RANGE RESULTING IN STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF A FOOT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

Frank_Wx wrote:Current snow cover is fairly impressive across the area. I am hoping models catch onto this and trend cooler. GFS has already done that.



Could be a nice swath of 4-8" type of snows from NEPA/NWNJ to HV.

Still early, we'll see how trends go today

frank gfs snow map strongly resembles snow cover. baroclinic zone probably sets up near southern extent of snow cover. probably a good bet that places that have snow now get more snow and places that have no snow get little if any.

Al, I agree.

aiannone wrote:NWS BTV Forecast Discussion. I'LL TAKE A FOOT!
DAILY QPF IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE, BUT OVER
TIME (72 HRS: SAT-MON) WILL ADD UP TO ABOUT A HALF TO 1" OF LIQUID.
WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES LOOK OPTIMAL FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH WITH SLR`S
LIKELY IN THE 15-25:1 RANGE RESULTING IN STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF A FOOT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

What are you at so far this season?

#coldtrend is the hashtag for this storm

RGEM trended colder with 850's

6z RGEM



12z RGEM



#coldtrend

So I did my own little analysis on 12z GFS about the frz, see if I got this at all right lol. It appears there is light precip in and around NYC from hours 42-96 (2am sunday-7am Tuesday. 850's are 0+ from hrs 60-78 for NYC and immediate northern suburbs, and surface temps are in mid to uppers 20's from hours 66-96. This would tell me from what I have read before that when 850s are 0 or above and surface is in 20's if there is light precip we have a big problem for ice, now from my calculations this cover around a 30 hour period of on and off frz, which would be catastrophic. I could be dead wrong but this was my first try and comparing on the model rather than just looking at it verbatim.

12z GGEM bringing back Saturday snows

This really looks like a nice setup for north of NYC again. NYC is in play also. We have a high to the north, which although it is quite far north it does provide some CAD, frontal boundary south of us and although the LP is weak it does provide added lift. That 850 0 line is precarious for NYC metro but a little farther south than Feb, 2nd storm. I think 8-12 for lower-mid Hudson valley is a real possibility and wouldn't be surprised if NYC metro finished with 3-6.
#coldtrend

Wait frank that's a 102 hr snow map, 1st warning lol you broke ur rule of under 96 hrs lol, although that aint no fantasy map lol

hyde345 wrote:This really looks like a nice setup for north of NYC again. NYC is in play also. We have a high to the north, which although it is quite far north it does provide some CAD, frontal boundary south of us and although the LP is weak it does provide added lift. That 850 0 line is precarious for NYC metro but a little farther south than Feb, 2nd storm. I think 8-12 for lower-mid Hudson valley is a real possibility and wouldn't be surprised if NYC metro finished with 3-6.  

Agree, you forgot to put #coldtrend