NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

+26
hyde345
SNOW MAN
docstox12
Abba701
Math23x7
carvin1079
CPcantmeasuresnow
Quietace
SoulSingMG
emokid51783
devsman
lglickman1
aiannone
RJB8525
algae888
jimv45
keliza52
Frank_Wx
trainwatcher7
amugs
Grselig
jmanley32
rb924119
skinsfan1177
Taffy
sroc4
30 posters

Page 6 of 10 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10  Next

Go down

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 Empty Re: UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 06, 2015 10:49 am

The 12z GFS is coming in colder.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20070
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 Empty Re: UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 06, 2015 10:52 am

I honestly don't see any difference, Frank lol

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 Empty Re: UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 06, 2015 10:52 am

There is a solid 10 hour period beginning Sunday afternoon when NYC is getting freezing drizzle/showers.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20070
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 Empty Re: UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 06, 2015 10:54 am

A very nasty ice storm on the 12z GFS for NYC. But it did tick colder. HV gets a Godzilla

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20070
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 Empty Re: UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 06, 2015 10:55 am

@rb924119 wrote:I honestly don't see any difference, Frank lol

There is.

6z GFS

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f84

12z GFS

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f78

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20070
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 Empty Re: UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 06, 2015 10:57 am

Maybe marginally at the surface, but the 850s look even slightly warmer to me. Idk.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 Empty Re: UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:01 am

NYC is 3-6 inches of snow this run with probably .25+" of ice. HV probably 8+ inches of snow

I just like the trend. That's what I am looking for at this point in time.


_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20070
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 Empty Re: UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:02 am

When push comes to shove, this is starting to look a bit like the February 2nd storm but colder and weaker

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20070
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 Empty Re: UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:03 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:NYC is 3-6 inches of snow this run with probably .25+" of ice. HV probably 8+ inches of snow

I just like the trend. That's what I am looking for at this point in time.


No doubt, I'm looking, sitting, sitting, waiting and wishing for the trend too, but I honestly didn't see anything that was very much different regarding the temperatures. Maybe I will in the ensembles when they come out. I hope, at least lmfao

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 Empty Re: UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:12 am

-The 6z GEFS trended south from the 00z GEFS
-The surface low has been trending south due to the northern confluence getting better recognition
-It is only Friday, and last week's storm these trends did not occur until 24-36 hours before. We may be ahead of schedule.

This storm is a far cry from what it could have been, but another moderate hit with ice is still on the table.


_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20070
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 Empty Re: UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:13 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:NYC is 3-6 inches of snow this run with probably .25+" of ice. HV probably 8+ inches of snow

I just like the trend. That's what I am looking for at this point in time.


I am not liking the northern country (Alex that's you, lol totally kidding) but jelous, I want my roidzilla lol, great .25 ice all we need, we escaped it bad last time hopefully we escape it this time too 10 hrs of freezing light rain would be very bad (much easier to accumulate then with a heavy frz, that would be a terrible ice storm and def on the higher end of .25, Al eluded to this and models have shown this more than once, a little concerning, but its trends at this point too early to predict that if I am correct.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:16 am; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18384
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 Empty Re: UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:15 am

So far NWS has no ice accretion map up, if this becomes a trend may show tomorrow, does show a snow map for very little snow through Monday 6am.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18384
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 Empty Re: UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:22 am

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 Gfs_6hr_snow_acc_nyc_18

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20070
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 Empty Re: UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:23 am

Looks a little sloppy. I have a feeling if this trend continues, NYC will be in a solid 4-8" zone, NW NJ/NEPA/HV in a 8-12" zone

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20070
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 Empty Re: UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

Post by aiannone Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:23 am

NWS BTV Forecast Discussion. I'LL TAKE A FOOT!
DAILY QPF IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE, BUT OVER
TIME (72 HRS: SAT-MON) WILL ADD UP TO ABOUT A HALF TO 1" OF LIQUID.
WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES LOOK OPTIMAL FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH WITH SLR`S
LIKELY IN THE 15-25:1 RANGE RESULTING IN STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF A FOOT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4267
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 Empty Re: UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

Post by algae888 Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:23 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Current snow cover is fairly impressive across the area. I am hoping models catch onto this and trend cooler. GFS has already done that.

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 Post-28288-1423217990_thumb

Could be a nice swath of 4-8" type of snows from NEPA/NWNJ to HV.

Still early, we'll see how trends go today
frank gfs snow map strongly resembles snow cover. baroclinic zone probably sets up near southern extent of snow cover. probably a good bet that places that have snow now get more snow and places that have no snow get little if any.
UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 Gfs_asnow_us_18
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5227
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 Empty Re: UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:24 am

Al, I agree.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20070
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 Empty Re: UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:25 am

@aiannone wrote:NWS BTV Forecast Discussion. I'LL TAKE A FOOT!
DAILY QPF IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE, BUT OVER
TIME (72 HRS: SAT-MON) WILL ADD UP TO ABOUT A HALF TO 1" OF LIQUID.
WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES LOOK OPTIMAL FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH WITH SLR`S
LIKELY IN THE 15-25:1 RANGE RESULTING IN STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF A FOOT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

What are you at so far this season?

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20070
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 Empty Re: UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:26 am

#coldtrend is the hashtag for this storm

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20070
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 Empty Re: UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:26 am

RGEM trended colder with 850's

6z RGEM

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 TT_GZ_UU_VV_054_0850

12z RGEM

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 TT_GZ_UU_VV_048_0850

#coldtrend

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20070
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 Empty Re: UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:27 am

So I did my own little analysis on 12z GFS about the frz, see if I got this at all right lol. It appears there is light precip in and around NYC from hours 42-96 (2am sunday-7am Tuesday. 850's are 0+ from hrs 60-78 for NYC and immediate northern suburbs, and surface temps are in mid to uppers 20's from hours 66-96. This would tell me from what I have read before that when 850s are 0 or above and surface is in 20's if there is light precip we have a big problem for ice, now from my calculations this cover around a 30 hour period of on and off frz, which would be catastrophic. I could be dead wrong but this was my first try and comparing on the model rather than just looking at it verbatim.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18384
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 Empty Re: UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:27 am

12z GGEM bringing back Saturday snows

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f33

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20070
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 Empty Re: UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

Post by hyde345 Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:28 am

This really looks like a nice setup for north of NYC again. NYC is in play also. We have a high to the north, which although it is quite far north it does provide some CAD, frontal boundary south of us and although the LP is weak it does provide added lift. That 850 0 line is precarious for NYC metro but a little farther south than Feb, 2nd storm. I think 8-12 for lower-mid Hudson valley is a real possibility and wouldn't be surprised if NYC metro finished with 3-6.
#coldtrend


Last edited by hyde345 on Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:47 am; edited 1 time in total
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 906
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 Empty Re: UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:29 am

Wait frank that's a 102 hr snow map, 1st warning lol you broke ur rule of under 96 hrs lol, although that aint no fantasy map lol
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18384
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 Empty Re: UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:29 am

@hyde345 wrote:This really looks like a nice setup for north of NYC again. NYC is in play also. We have a high to the north, which although it is quite far north it does provide some CAD, frontal boundary south of us and although the LP is weak it does provide added lift. That 850 0 line is precarious for NYC metro but a little farther south than Feb, 2nd storm. I think 8-12 for lower-mid Hudson valley is a real possibility and wouldn't be surprised if NYC metro finished with 3-6.  

Agree, you forgot to put #coldtrend

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20070
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL - Page 6 Empty Re: UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 6 of 10 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum