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UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:18 pm

FWIW, and not a lot since its based completely off the GFS as has been stated before but the local forecasts such as TWC, NWS and weatherunderground have 1 inch sunday, 3-5 sunday night, 3-5 Monday and 1-3 Monday night. That would be sweet but things do only look ok, and my bad Frank, usually when you remove something it means your no longer interested, it seemed kinda odd to me so I guess I should waited. FWIW the Euro ensembles are not terrible for NYC, but its long duration and not all that much even if it is a foot I would not classify 1-2 1/2 days to get that a Godzilla, or would you Frank? I know NWS mentioned that if it was over that long a period everyone would likely see WWA rather than WSW, unless the coastal hits hard which would warrant WSW, they said WSW has to be snowfall within a 24 hour period, I did not know that, WWA is over that or lower amounts I believe under 6.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:24 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:FWIW, and not a lot since its based completely off the GFS as has been stated before but the local forecasts such as TWC, NWS and weatherunderground have 1 inch sunday, 3-5 sunday night, 3-5 Monday and 1-3 Monday night.  That would be sweet but things do only look ok, and my bad Frank, usually when you remove something it means your no longer interested, it seemed kinda odd to me so I guess I should waited.  FWIW the Euro ensembles are not terrible for NYC, but its long duration and not all that much even if it is a foot I would not classify 1-2 1/2 days to get that a Godzilla, or would you Frank?  I know NWS mentioned that if it was over that long a period everyone would likely see WWA rather than WSW, unless the coastal hits hard which would warrant WSW, they said WSW has to be snowfall within  a 24 hour period, I did not know that, WWA is over that or lower amounts I believe under 6.

The problem with long duration, light snowfall events is some of the snow starts to melt and you'll never get an accurate measurement of how much as fallen. It's very easy for cleaning crew's to keep up with it as long as it's light. That said, still too early in the game. While trends today have gone north, the last storm turned out colder than expected so models may not have a grasp of the low level cold until Friday at the latest. Also need to wait for better sampling. Potential is still there for significant, but I am betting against it for now.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:49 pm

True enough, measuring would be hard you would have to do it a lot and since most of us work that's impossible. I will wait for your call, I wish you didn't say you were better against it but that's the call now. I am hoping the timeframe second half of month goes paydirt.
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Feb 05, 2015 4:23 pm

Mr. Goldberg says the idea of snow stacking up from a long period of snow this weekend looks less likely, will be amending his forecast. Well that's that. lol
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 05, 2015 4:26 pm

We can't just get it to go our way it seems
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 05, 2015 4:31 pm

Of course local Mets now back off bc it's not going their way.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 05, 2015 4:38 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Of course local Mets now back off bc it's not going their way.

It's straight up model hugging. They can only go by what the models tell them. I'm sure when the talk among themselves they're probably thinking "man, this should trend this way because the pattern looks like this" or "this event in the past looks like a pattern we're currently in"

They can't say that on TV

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Post by Quietace Thu Feb 05, 2015 4:51 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Of course local Mets now back off bc it's not going their way.

It's straight up model hugging. They can only go by what the models tell them. I'm sure when the talk among themselves they're probably thinking "man, this should trend this way because the pattern looks like this" or "this event in the past looks like a pattern we're currently in"

They can't say that on TV
Most forecast off of the "Futurecast" (4 or 12km RPM from WSI) these days that lead to inaccuracies in short term forecasting for on air mets. They use it for snowfall, future radar, and temps to give the public the information in the most "simplistic" way possible to understand the data. Yet sometimes this way leads to misconceptions about forecasts and inaccuracies. I am sure on air mets hate using the RPM as its performance is mostly below average, yet find is necessary to keep the public modestly informed. Which goes along with what you are saying. They cant say what they want too, because A) the public will misinterpret it, or B) the public wont understand data or forecast. This goes along with the need to further inform the public about weather forecasting so we can be a safer and more responsive country to events.


Last edited by Quietace on Thu Feb 05, 2015 4:53 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by jimv45 Thu Feb 05, 2015 4:52 pm

lee said north of ny city best shot of several inches.

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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 05, 2015 5:11 pm

18z GFS went further north again. Please don't hate me. I know Frank is already jealous lol
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 05, 2015 5:51 pm

Haha no Alex. From a climatology standpoint this storm is yours.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 05, 2015 5:52 pm

The ridge out west collapses, flow turns zonal, northern stream energy heads into Upstate NY

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Post by RJB8525 Thu Feb 05, 2015 5:59 pm

@aiannone wrote:18z GFS went further north again. Please don't hate me. I know Frank is already jealous lol
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Lee's going with the northern trend as well
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 05, 2015 6:54 pm

@aiannone wrote:18z GFS went further north again. Please don't hate me. I know Frank is already jealous lol
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I liked you a lot better when you lived in Long Island. Can you transfer to Stony Brook?
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Post by jimv45 Thu Feb 05, 2015 7:02 pm

Bernie Rayno thinks ny city is in the game but north of that looks good for 6 plus!

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Post by Guest Thu Feb 05, 2015 7:05 pm

A LONG DURATION WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS LIKELY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL SEE PRIMARILY SNOW WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 8 OR MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...WHILE NORTHEAST
NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA AND LONG ISLAND
MAY BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE SNOW CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.

screwed again.  Moving to Boston!!

Just another example of being in the bullseye too early leading to too much hype.

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Post by jimv45 Thu Feb 05, 2015 7:07 pm

cp doc looks good for us have feeling this will move south a bit!!

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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Feb 05, 2015 7:09 pm

New England is really the 'SuperBowl' winner this season with snow. It just keeps coming down and this storm'll be no different. I just got back from Southern NH yesterday and you wouldn't believe the snowpack they've got from just the last 8 days. Most snow in Boston during any 7 day stretch in history.
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Feb 05, 2015 7:20 pm

Incidentally, TWC has changed their once-consistent "snow 80%' for Sunday/Monday in NYC to Wintry Mix.

What do we think the chances are of this trending south now that better sampling will come in on the 00z's?
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Post by carvin1079 Thu Feb 05, 2015 7:25 pm

None because when it's no its no when it's there its always not sure

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Post by jimv45 Thu Feb 05, 2015 7:26 pm

i think that last storm with go more south and bernie Rayno who i think is very good does to!

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Post by devsman Thu Feb 05, 2015 7:36 pm

I think we have a chance for the next storm if 5 days before it, the maps show a blizzard in miami. Most likely though, it will be a mix from NYC south.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 05, 2015 8:00 pm

syosnow94 wrote:A LONG DURATION WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS LIKELY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL SEE PRIMARILY SNOW WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 8 OR MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...WHILE NORTHEAST
NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA AND LONG ISLAND
MAY BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE SNOW CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.

screwed again.  Moving to Boston!!

Just another example of being in the bullseye too early leading to too much hype.

Move to the HV, we average more snow per season than Boston, plus we don't have the annoying accents.

This year so far is their year, not always the case.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 05, 2015 8:01 pm

@jimv45 wrote:cp doc looks good for us have feeling this will move south a bit!!

I agree Jim, still 3 days away and most sampling isn't even on land yet. If it doesn't go our way it's Alex's fault.
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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 05, 2015 8:30 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@jimv45 wrote:cp doc looks good for us have feeling this will move south a bit!!

I agree Jim, still 3 days away and most sampling isn't even on land yet. If it doesn't go our way it's Alex's fault.

I'll take the blame, which will feel pretty crappy, but then i'll get my 8-10" of snow and be happy again :p. And no, I would never transfer to Stony Brook lol. The program is too good here!
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