UPDATE #1: SUNDAY FEB 8TH-TUESDAY FEB 10TH STORM POTENTIAL

Let's take the nooses down so far people. It's a complicated set up, and when all the energy gets on shore it can actually get modeled properly. There's enough cold air in place that it can certainly make it down through NYC

emokid51783 wrote:Let's take the nooses down so far people. It's a complicated set up, and when all the energy gets on shore it can actually get modeled properly. There's enough cold air in place that it can certainly make it down through NYC

Well, the cold is there to a certain extent. The problem we're seeing again is the surface low maturing to our south and west which raises heights along the EC. There's plenty of confluence to our north to prevent a cutter, but the initial rise in heights pushes the temp. gradient north too. We need the 1st wave on Saturday to track further south or for the HP to our north to press south.

FWIW, and not a lot since its based completely off the GFS as has been stated before but the local forecasts such as TWC, NWS and weatherunderground have 1 inch sunday, 3-5 sunday night, 3-5 Monday and 1-3 Monday night. That would be sweet but things do only look ok, and my bad Frank, usually when you remove something it means your no longer interested, it seemed kinda odd to me so I guess I should waited. FWIW the Euro ensembles are not terrible for NYC, but its long duration and not all that much even if it is a foot I would not classify 1-2 1/2 days to get that a Godzilla, or would you Frank? I know NWS mentioned that if it was over that long a period everyone would likely see WWA rather than WSW, unless the coastal hits hard which would warrant WSW, they said WSW has to be snowfall within a 24 hour period, I did not know that, WWA is over that or lower amounts I believe under 6.

jmanley32 wrote:FWIW, and not a lot since its based completely off the GFS as has been stated before but the local forecasts such as TWC, NWS and weatherunderground have 1 inch sunday, 3-5 sunday night, 3-5 Monday and 1-3 Monday night.  That would be sweet but things do only look ok, and my bad Frank, usually when you remove something it means your no longer interested, it seemed kinda odd to me so I guess I should waited.  FWIW the Euro ensembles are not terrible for NYC, but its long duration and not all that much even if it is a foot I would not classify 1-2 1/2 days to get that a Godzilla, or would you Frank?  I know NWS mentioned that if it was over that long a period everyone would likely see WWA rather than WSW, unless the coastal hits hard which would warrant WSW, they said WSW has to be snowfall within  a 24 hour period, I did not know that, WWA is over that or lower amounts I believe under 6.

The problem with long duration, light snowfall events is some of the snow starts to melt and you'll never get an accurate measurement of how much as fallen. It's very easy for cleaning crew's to keep up with it as long as it's light. That said, still too early in the game. While trends today have gone north, the last storm turned out colder than expected so models may not have a grasp of the low level cold until Friday at the latest. Also need to wait for better sampling. Potential is still there for significant, but I am betting against it for now.

True enough, measuring would be hard you would have to do it a lot and since most of us work that's impossible. I will wait for your call, I wish you didn't say you were better against it but that's the call now. I am hoping the timeframe second half of month goes paydirt.

Mr. Goldberg says the idea of snow stacking up from a long period of snow this weekend looks less likely, will be amending his forecast. Well that's that. lol

We can't just get it to go our way it seems

Of course local Mets now back off bc it's not going their way.

skinsfan1177 wrote:Of course local Mets now back off bc it's not going their way.

It's straight up model hugging. They can only go by what the models tell them. I'm sure when the talk among themselves they're probably thinking "man, this should trend this way because the pattern looks like this" or "this event in the past looks like a pattern we're currently in"

They can't say that on TV

Frank_Wx wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Of course local Mets now back off bc it's not going their way.

It's straight up model hugging. They can only go by what the models tell them. I'm sure when the talk among themselves they're probably thinking "man, this should trend this way because the pattern looks like this" or "this event in the past looks like a pattern we're currently in"

They can't say that on TV

Most forecast off of the "Futurecast" (4 or 12km RPM from WSI) these days that lead to inaccuracies in short term forecasting for on air mets. They use it for snowfall, future radar, and temps to give the public the information in the most "simplistic" way possible to understand the data. Yet sometimes this way leads to misconceptions about forecasts and inaccuracies. I am sure on air mets hate using the RPM as its performance is mostly below average, yet find is necessary to keep the public modestly informed. Which goes along with what you are saying. They cant say what they want too, because A) the public will misinterpret it, or B) the public wont understand data or forecast. This goes along with the need to further inform the public about weather forecasting so we can be a safer and more responsive country to events.

lee said north of ny city best shot of several inches.

18z GFS went further north again. Please don't hate me. I know Frank is already jealous lol

Haha no Alex. From a climatology standpoint this storm is yours.

The ridge out west collapses, flow turns zonal, northern stream energy heads into Upstate NY

aiannone wrote:18z GFS went further north again. Please don't hate me. I know Frank is already jealous lol

Lee's going with the northern trend as well

aiannone wrote:18z GFS went further north again. Please don't hate me. I know Frank is already jealous lol

I liked you a lot better when you lived in Long Island. Can you transfer to Stony Brook?

Bernie Rayno thinks ny city is in the game but north of that looks good for 6 plus!

A LONG DURATION WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS LIKELY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL SEE PRIMARILY SNOW WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 8 OR MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...WHILE NORTHEAST
NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA AND LONG ISLAND
MAY BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE SNOW CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.

screwed again.  Moving to Boston!!

Just another example of being in the bullseye too early leading to too much hype.

cp doc looks good for us have feeling this will move south a bit!!

New England is really the 'SuperBowl' winner this season with snow. It just keeps coming down and this storm'll be no different. I just got back from Southern NH yesterday and you wouldn't believe the snowpack they've got from just the last 8 days. Most snow in Boston during any 7 day stretch in history.

Incidentally, TWC has changed their once-consistent "snow 80%' for Sunday/Monday in NYC to Wintry Mix.

What do we think the chances are of this trending south now that better sampling will come in on the 00z's?

None because when it's no its no when it's there its always not sure

i think that last storm with go more south and bernie Rayno who i think is very good does to!

I think we have a chance for the next storm if 5 days before it, the maps show a blizzard in miami. Most likely though, it will be a mix from NYC south.

syosnow94 wrote:A LONG DURATION WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS LIKELY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL SEE PRIMARILY SNOW WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 8 OR MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...WHILE NORTHEAST
NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA AND LONG ISLAND
MAY BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE SNOW CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.

screwed again.  Moving to Boston!!

Just another example of being in the bullseye too early leading to too much hype.

Move to the HV, we average more snow per season than Boston, plus we don't have the annoying accents.

This year so far is their year, not always the case.

jimv45 wrote:cp doc looks good for us have feeling this will move south a bit!!

I agree Jim, still 3 days away and most sampling isn't even on land yet. If it doesn't go our way it's Alex's fault.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

jimv45 wrote:cp doc looks good for us have feeling this will move south a bit!!

I agree Jim, still 3 days away and most sampling isn't even on land yet. If it doesn't go our way it's Alex's fault.

I'll take the blame, which will feel pretty crappy, but then i'll get my 8-10" of snow and be happy again :p. And no, I would never transfer to Stony Brook lol. The program is too good here!