Re: February 2019 Observations and Discussions

by **Grselig** Wed Feb 13, 2019 5:31 pm

Nice photos of the city clouds-squall above. pic of a squall from about 4:30 today

February 2019 Observations and Discussions - Page 5 Evergr10

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:02 am

28.6°

For only the 19th day this season the landscape is covered in white. As is the norm this winter season it doesn't look to last.

I'm right there with Doc, this season is a D here so far. I can see why many on LI and the coastal plain of NJ would grade it a solid F right now.

by **sroc4** Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:03 am

by **Grselig** Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:25 am

November was it. F+ Yesterday was ice to shovel.

by **docstox12** Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:36 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:28.6°

For only the 19th day this season the landscape is covered in white. As is the norm this winter season it doesn't look to last.

I'm right there with Doc, this season is a D here so far. I can see why many on LI and the coastal plain of NJ would grade it a solid F right now.

CP, the only thing that keeps me going stat wise is to beat out 2015-2016 by at least 10 inches.Maybe we can squeeze out a few more in next week's projected slop fest according to Goldberg.

The season is so terrible, [i] will take a 2 to 3 inch PURE SNOW event right now.

by **heehaw453** Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:47 am

I think for some the winter grade is Withdrawn Failing.
There are folks in Monmouth county with literally under 2” of snow so far.

by **amugs** Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:01 am

DAY 3 of snow cover YIPPEEEEEEEE!!!!
It'll be gone tomorrow.

by **hyde345** Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:43 pm

This winter has not been good but north of 84 it hasn't been awful either. So far I have received 25 inches and temps have been normal to slightly above. We'll see how the rest of Feb and March play out. So far C-/D+. Right now 39* and sunny.

by **heehaw453** Thu Feb 14, 2019 3:39 pm

Article regarding FV3 (new American model). Sure does output lots of digital snow. Easy to shovel that Smile

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/14/weather-service-prepares-launch-new-prediction-model-that-many-forecasters-dont-trust/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.b3d27d35a898

by **hyde345** Thu Feb 14, 2019 4:41 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:Article regarding FV3 (new American model). Sure does output lots of digital snow. Easy to shovel that

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/14/weather-service-prepares-launch-new-prediction-model-that-many-forecasters-dont-trust/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.b3d27d35a898

Good read, thanks for posting. I hate the GFS but I think it has performed far better than FV3.

by **dkodgis** Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:07 pm

I have solid ground cover, and by solid I mean like frosting on a cake. My dog can walk on it and not break it. Tonight she was outside and trying to get footing to do her duty. The poor girl actually slid down the hill onto the driveway with paws going everywhere like a beginner ice skater. Funny. I see the heatwave for tomorrow then it starts getting cold again. I note that even tomorrow's warmth is also possibly with rain. Temp goes up, moisture comes around. What a pattern.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Feb 15, 2019 10:08 am

Regarding upcoming Monday...

GFS has a primary low pressure in NEPA which would keep us warm for snow. And if it does snow it is unlikely to stick.

February 2019 Observations and Discussions - Page 5 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_13

February 2019 Observations and Discussions - Page 5 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_13

But the NAM shows the primary dying in western PA then transfers to a secondary off the coast. Boundary layer temps would support minor accumulation of snow.

February 2019 Observations and Discussions - Page 5 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_44

February 2019 Observations and Discussions - Page 5 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_44

If the NAM is right we're looking at about C-2 inches of snow (2 inches mainly for N&W). If GFS is right probably nothing.

by **algae888** Fri Feb 15, 2019 11:25 am

The surface low-pressure is so weak and the Confluence to our North is strong enough that this should be primarily snow especially New York City north and west even the warm thermal bias GFS gives 2 to 5 in across the area even into Long Island higher amounts Inland of course. The trend with this one is that it is being getting wetter the last few Cycles

by **heehaw453** Fri Feb 15, 2019 12:02 pm

I think an inch or two for most Sunday night especially above 78. Kind of weak looking to me. I’m more interested in Wednesday’s threat.

by **hyde345** Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:04 pm

Any snow is good snow. I'm hoping to get to the 30 inch mark by the end of next week. Winter is not over.

by **heehaw453** Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:06 pm

Euro shows 1-2” Sunday night and much bigger potential for Wednesday. Surface temperatures on Wednesday are cold.

by **frank 638** Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:40 am

On this day 2003 we were waking up to the Presidents Day blizzard. I would never forget how fast and hard the snow was coming down and the wind was so strong it what's causing near white-out condition I ended up with 22 inches of snow with crazy snow drifts. We all know this winter has been a bit disappointing but if we get one stone like this I will be very happy which I doubt it

by **dkodgis** Mon Feb 18, 2019 3:10 pm

Certainly the winds have picked up in the last half hr. I am seeing 25 mph winds with a few 38 mph gusts. It seemed to last for a half hr. Still blowing but around 18 mph

by **dkodgis** Mon Feb 18, 2019 3:12 pm

And wow a sudden warm up this Thursday during the day.

by **docstox12** Thu Feb 21, 2019 6:59 am

The measly one inch of snow is now solid ice after freezing rain.30 degrees.This is one of the few tinmes I will be happy to see temps in the 40's after a snowfall. Get rid of this icy crap please!~!!!!

by **heehaw453** Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:14 am

Had .25” ice accretion last night. It’s amazing how destructive that is to trees. Several branches came down near my house.
Does look like winter wonderland.

by **Radz** Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:25 am

1" of snow transformed into 3/4" of solid ice after last nights freezing rain... finally hit 33° at 7:20 this am - trees look amazing

by **SENJsnowman** Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:28 am

Thank goodness that ice is a rare occurrence across the coastal plain. Be safe out there all...pick them feet straight up and put them straight down, and assume every inch of every surface is icy.

Any pics of the trees would be cool...everything washed out here last night, mostly. Looks a bit dreary, but oh well.

36* and cloudy.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:37 am

30.0° and the ice world Hoth outside my window.

0.8 inches of snow followed by a lot of ice which I refuse to measure.

24.9 inches on the season here. NYC now at an even 10.0 inches avoiding becoming only the tenth season in history of a single digit seasonal total.

I'm still hopeful seasonal averages can be reached but at this point in time even if they somehow were this winter will still rank as awful.

by **brownie** Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:39 am

Hard to get a clear, focused shot, but I’ll try.

February 2019 Observations and Discussions - Page 5 25ec1910

February 2019 Observations and Discussions - Page 5 Be724810

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