Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2023 8:02 pm

CNWestMilford wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
CNWestMilford wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Well 18z GFS reverted back to a solution that keeps almost everyone rain and shifted the heaviest snow north and east. And the cycle goes round and round. I presume this is not what Frank wanted to see or any of you all.

But the GFS ensembles disagree with the OP. New Euro is further south and west.
Do you have a euro snow map? That might bode well.

Not bad if its true, which I am doubtful still I want to see SR model runs.

by **heehaw453** Sat Mar 11, 2023 9:06 pm

Catskills is an easy ride. See if this holds until tomorrow.

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 5 Epspro11

by **heehaw453** Sat Mar 11, 2023 9:37 pm

00Z NAM lead energy (southern) not nearly as amped n/s much more so. It's trying to consolidate better at all layers but this is 850s

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 5 Nam64

by **jmanley32** Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:48 am

Ill take the 00z cmc plz! Wow

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:55 am

jmanley32 wrote:Ill take the 00z cmc plz! Wow

I know you’re just playing with these maps Jman but in the last two days alone I’ve seen models with anywhere from 4 to 36 inches over my house. The funny thing is I’m not even sure I’ll get 4 yet, and I’m not even dreaming of any chance at 36. Anyway WS Watch here for 5-10. That seems more reasonable.

With everything still so up in the air I may take a break tomorrow and just see what Monday brings. I actually have PTSD from to much model watching since last Sunday.

by **jmanley32** Sun Mar 12, 2023 1:02 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Ill take the 00z cmc plz! Wow

I know you’re just playing with these maps Jman but in the last two days alone I’ve seen models with anywhere from 4 to 36 inches over my house. The funny thing is I’m not even sure I’ll get 4 yet, and I’m not even dreaming of any chance at 36.

With everything still so up in the air I may take a break tomorrow and just see what Monday brings. I actually have PTSD from to much model watching since last Sunday.

lol you do what ypu need to do yes i have seen o to 17 imby on these useless models. 48 hrs away and they got no clue. Cmc was a massive coastal i dont think it had that small lp into li. Honestly i think ur in a good dpot to get plasterrd. And no i dont mean booze.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sun Mar 12, 2023 1:28 am

From tonight’s CMC UKIE and Euro it seems like NYC area and parts of LI back in the game for a decent hit. Let’s see what tomorrow brings.

by **docstox12** Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:13 am

25 degrees, clear ,calm wind.NWS holding fast ATM to last nights WS watch and 5 to 10 for my area.In a terrible season like this, will be happy to get 6 .Coming up to nowcast.Any change in the phasing or 25 to 50 mile wobble will have big effects,Looking like a March Catskills special.One March many years ago, a Buddy who owns a place near Cooperstown got 36 inches while NJ had heavy rain.
Whatever this season produced, it was a throwback to a classic "areas N and W of the City" getting more snow.This is how it was when I was a kid.
Math up in Albany and Hyde look like they are in the sweet spot.

by **dkodgis** Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:42 am

We take the models like they are piggy banks. We hold them upside down and shake them to get forecasts out of them. Of course meteorology is despite all time, attention, resources , and people hours applied to it, is inexact; sometimes things aren’t known until after an event. This is when I press my nose and hands to the window and I am unscientific. I am a kid again

by **MattyICE** Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:49 am

This is a complicated setup and I’m sure it’s frustrating because it feels like we’re pretty close to go time with no real consensus. I think with a complex storm like this the Meso models need to get into range to really give an idea of a final outcome. They are just coming into their outer reliable ranges today. This will have additional ups and downs and essentially come down in fringe areas to nowcasting. If we accept that now then we can just enjoy the ride in what has been a truly horrific winter. There will be busts. One run is going to give you 12 then the next 2”. Let’s buckle up and see what comes today!

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:12 am

Run after run the EURO keeps showing this meso low just off the coast, allowing colder air to infiltrate down to the coast. It also keeps showing the CCB over NYC Metro. Here is the 06z snow map. I’ll see if I can find a depth map some place

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 5 D4-AD6134-7-D0-A-4644-889-E-EA4-A98305-F12

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 5 D4-AD6134-7-D0-A-4644-889-E-EA4-A98305-F12

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:15 am

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 5 Image-png-bbbdf8e97e5da12fed56c09745f539bd

Ratios are more like 7:1 for the coast so I think this is overdone by a bit. But if the EURO is anywhere near accurate we’re looking at a near Roodzilla territory N&W of NYC

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:17 am

Here’s the NAM just for comparison. I mean, is this the same storm? Laughable difference

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 5 Namconus_asnowd_neus_29

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 5 Namconus_asnowd_neus_29

by **heehaw453** Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:23 am

Euro ULL location gives this a chance north of Trenton.

I've pointed out that models were bad on that last storm. This ridge is better than last storm though. I also pointed out the s/w energy came ashore in Oregon which seems like this should correct more north. The further north it comes the worse it will be for snow in our area.

Where the best forcing sets up don't even think models have a handle on. Look at the 700mb setup. There's two disparate pieces of energy and exactly where that sets up good luck. That's why it's thumping in NYC down to Monmouth Cty.

As Matty said super high bust potential here. Outside of LHV, NW NJ everyone should be really cautious.

500mb ULL

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 5 Ull23

The 700mb

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 5 700mb11

by **jmanley32** Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:23 am

Frank_Wx wrote:

Ratios are more like 7:1 for the coast so I think this is overdone by a bit. But if the EURO is anywhere near accurate we’re looking at a near Roodzilla territory N&W of NYC

thing of beauty even at 7:1 but as you said above look at nsm. Gfs also closer to nam then euro. How muck stock are you put in the euro for nyc metro to actually see wsw level snows?

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:30 am

heehaw453 wrote:Euro ULL location gives this a chance north of Trenton.

I've pointed out that models were bad on that last storm. This ridge is better than last storm though. I also pointed out the s/w energy came ashore in Oregon which seems like this should correct more north. The further north it comes the worse it will be for snow in our area.

Where the best forcing sets up don't even think models have a handle on. Look at the 700mb setup. There's two disparate pieces of energy and exactly where that sets up good luck. That's why it's thumping in NYC down to Monmouth Cty.

As Matty said super high bust potential here. Outside of LHV, NW NJ everyone should be really cautious.

500mb ULL

The 700mb

Agreed, but EURO does have some mode support. The 3KM NAM, SREFS, and Canadian suites. Each is a little different where banding sets up, but in general have accumulating snow down the coast.

This starts as rain along the coast before changing over to heavy snow. Also, the best forcing sets up N&W of NYC regardless. So the Godzilla snow amounts will be N&W. The NJ and NYC forecasts though are very difficult right now. I’ll be waiting for the 12z runs before releasing a snow map.

by **jmanley32** Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:31 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Run after run the EURO keeps showing this meso low just off the coast, allowing colder air to infiltrate down to the coast. It also keeps showing the CCB over NYC Metro. Here is the 06z snow map. I’ll see if I can find a depth map some place

do you have the 00z map was it similar? And cmc was sililar in totals so we have 2 models kinda in same camp.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:33 am

The NMB had 0 inches last run for NYC. Now look at it. These types of swings are laughable. It’s hard to take the NYC trend seriously until we see more consistency which is why todays 12z runs will be BIG

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 5 4199-CC88-DF0-C-4-C57-B577-324-CF93-EBEF3-thumb-jpeg-aef4e4d070a59a85147b9986d530790d

by **heehaw453** Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:34 am

I like NWS depiction released this morning. I think given temps and setup this is absolutely fair right now.

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 5 Mtholl12

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:36 am

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Run after run the EURO keeps showing this meso low just off the coast, allowing colder air to infiltrate down to the coast. It also keeps showing the CCB over NYC Metro. Here is the 06z snow map. I’ll see if I can find a depth map some place

do you have the 00z map was it similar? And cmc was sililar in totals so we have 2 models kinda in same camp.

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 5 Sn10-acc-imp-us-ne

by **jmanley32** Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:38 am

Wow on 3km nam and sref maybe euro cmc 3km nam and sref are onto st. I sure hope but am tempering especially since nws isnt biting yet anywats if they do. Major model runs at 12z!

by **jmanley32** Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:40 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Run after run the EURO keeps showing this meso low just off the coast, allowing colder air to infiltrate down to the coast. It also keeps showing the CCB over NYC Metro. Here is the 06z snow map. I’ll see if I can find a depth map some place

do you have the 00z map was it similar? And cmc was sililar in totals so we have 2 models kinda in same camp.

thats the euro says gdps. Thats ok fpund it on pivotal i didnt realize ypu could see hi res euro on there. So 06z upped snti even more. But you know the 06z and 18z.

by **Quietace** Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:47 am

heehaw453 wrote:Euro ULL location gives this a chance north of Trenton.

I've pointed out that models were bad on that last storm. This ridge is better than last storm though. I also pointed out the s/w energy came ashore in Oregon which seems like this should correct more north. The further north it comes the worse it will be for snow in our area.

Where the best forcing sets up don't even think models have a handle on. Look at the 700mb setup. There's two disparate pieces of energy and exactly where that sets up good luck. That's why it's thumping in NYC down to Monmouth Cty.

As Matty said super high bust potential here. Outside of LHV, NW NJ everyone should be really cautious.

500mb ULL

The 700mb

I have seen you post this a few times, and just want to point out that literature written on intrinsic NWP predictability says there is no correlation between the skill of NWP on prior systems and the one after, often because if models preform poorly on one, it is often due to an area of heightened uncertainty, that once that area is resolved, skill returns. Hence why skill drop outs on NWP only last for short temporal periods. Part of my M.S. thesis discussed this in TC forecasts.

by **docstox12** Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:49 am

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Run after run the EURO keeps showing this meso low just off the coast, allowing colder air to infiltrate down to the coast. It also keeps showing the CCB over NYC Metro. Here is the 06z snow map. I’ll see if I can find a depth map some place

do you have the 00z map was it similar? And cmc was sililar in totals so we have 2 models kinda in same camp.

thats the euro says gdps. Thats ok fpund it on pivotal i didnt realize ypu could see hi res euro on there. So 06z upped snti even more. But you know the 06z and 18z.

We interrupt this regularly scheduled thread on the Mainland Weather Board to bring an urgent message to CP aka Wintercoldandsnoware a myth......IGNORE these clown snow maps! Believing they will come true and having it bust can have severe mental implications, including a complete collapse!That is all.

Brought to you by your genial Director of the OTI Sanitarium.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:56 am

docstox12 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Run after run the EURO keeps showing this meso low just off the coast, allowing colder air to infiltrate down to the coast. It also keeps showing the CCB over NYC Metro. Here is the 06z snow map. I’ll see if I can find a depth map some place

do you have the 00z map was it similar? And cmc was sililar in totals so we have 2 models kinda in same camp.

thats the euro says gdps. Thats ok fpund it on pivotal i didnt realize ypu could see hi res euro on there. So 06z upped snti even more. But you know the 06z and 18z.

We interrupt this regularly scheduled thread on the Mainland Weather Board to bring an urgent message to CP aka Wintercoldandsnoware a myth......IGNORE these clown snow maps! Believing they will come true and having it bust can have severe mental implications, including a complete collapse!That is all.

Brought to you by your genial Director of the OTI Sanitarium.

If the 12z runs look like this I may need seek asylum in OTI

by **jmanley32** Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:57 am

docstox12 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Run after run the EURO keeps showing this meso low just off the coast, allowing colder air to infiltrate down to the coast. It also keeps showing the CCB over NYC Metro. Here is the 06z snow map. I’ll see if I can find a depth map some place

do you have the 00z map was it similar? And cmc was sililar in totals so we have 2 models kinda in same camp.

thats the euro says gdps. Thats ok fpund it on pivotal i didnt realize ypu could see hi res euro on there. So 06z upped snti even more. But you know the 06z and 18z.

We interrupt this regularly scheduled thread on the Mainland Weather Board to bring an urgent message to CP aka Wintercoldandsnoware a myth......IGNORE these clown snow maps! Believing they will come true and having it bust can have severe mental implications, including a complete collapse!That is all.

Brought to you by your genial Director of the OTI Sanitarium.

lol yup nice to look at but hard to put stock in yet.

by **docstox12** Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:59 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Run after run the EURO keeps showing this meso low just off the coast, allowing colder air to infiltrate down to the coast. It also keeps showing the CCB over NYC Metro. Here is the 06z snow map. I’ll see if I can find a depth map some place

do you have the 00z map was it similar? And cmc was sililar in totals so we have 2 models kinda in same camp.

thats the euro says gdps. Thats ok fpund it on pivotal i didnt realize ypu could see hi res euro on there. So 06z upped snti even more. But you know the 06z and 18z.

We interrupt this regularly scheduled thread on the Mainland Weather Board to bring an urgent message to CP aka Wintercoldandsnoware a myth......IGNORE these clown snow maps! Believing they will come true and having it bust can have severe mental implications, including a complete collapse!That is all.

Brought to you by your genial Director of the OTI Sanitarium.

If the 12z runs look like this I may need seek asylum in OTI

Emperor Frank, you have Carte Blanche 24/7 at OTI.
Map mayhem at it's best!

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