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March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:26 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Here’s an interesting development. The GEFS are a lot wetter, and some members track the H5 low in similar fashion to the EURO and NAM. This is the qpf output of the mean and it’s quite telling IMO. 

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 8 96de3710
Yeah I think qpf wise it's not an issue. The issue for me is the temps. Look at the isotherms bend upward on the GEFS. There's probably going to be mid-level energy not too far off shore

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 8 Warmai10

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:27 pm

lglickman1 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Here’s an interesting development. The GEFS are a lot wetter, and some members track the H5 low in similar fashion to the EURO and NAM. This is the qpf output of the mean and it’s quite telling IMO. 

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 8 96de3710

You think gets and gfs is coming around to the NAM and euro

Trend is our friend, right? Even the GFS trended in the right direction at H5. 

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 8 Gfs_z500trend_us_4

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Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:27 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I know I’ve been largely absent, and I apologize, but from the little bit I’ve peeked at this, I have one thing to say:

If you live in NW NJ, NEPA, the Catskill region and Lower-Mid-Hudson Valley (at any reasonable elevation)……get the yardsticks out. You’re gonna need ‘em. Happy tracking 🙂

Hey pal!!! Hope everything is well with you.

Oh Captain, my Captain, ‘Tis good to see you, Sir!! I can’t complain, but I’ve just been really busy. Have been working seven days a week since the beginning of October trying to get a couple of things set into motion for myself. Knock on wood, the hard work is paying off haha so that’s why I’ve been absent for so long. But I couldn’t NOT at least make a cameo for this storm, and I must admit, it feels a lot better than trying to concentrate on my job like I should be right now 😂 oh well, it’s a Sunday haha

Anyway, I haven’t looked at the hemispheric or tropical mechanisms, but what I’m seeing in H850 through H5 has my alarm bells going off a DEF-CON 5 for an over-performer that models will not see until it’s too late. The 12z long-range HRRR actually looks closest to what we should see on radar regarding the QPF field, assuming the presentation aloft is correct. Also, don’t chase that eastern vort max - it’s feedback. And that is really messing with the models right now. The main show is the parent vorticity diving southeastward, not that lead disturbance. With such a negatively tilted trough aloft super-imposed on the intense frontogenesis beneath it, a prolonged period of symmetric instability should allow pretty prolific snowfall rates of 1-3/2-4” per hour in the areas I mentioned above. Couple that with ratios of anywhere from 15-20:1 (yes, you read that right) for the zones I mentioned, I think 20-30” amounts should be achievable. Again, this is based on some very crude posturing, but this storm is not to be trifled with. It’s not often you see troughs go THIS negative before closing off and maturing, so the atmosphere is gonna do some wild things. Also, don’t be surprised to hear thunder and see lightning with this.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:30 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Here’s an interesting development. The GEFS are a lot wetter, and some members track the H5 low in similar fashion to the EURO and NAM. This is the qpf output of the mean and it’s quite telling IMO. 

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 8 96de3710
Yeah I think qpf wise it's not an issue. The issue for me is the temps. Look at the isotherms bend upward on the GEFS. There's probably going to be mid-level energy not too far off shore

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 8 Warmai10

Yes, that is your meso low. So we’re seeing consistency with this offshore low. How it plays out at the surface depends on what happens up top.

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Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:31 pm

In typical GFS fashion, it’s playing catch-up lol

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:32 pm

rb924119 wrote:In typical GFS fashion, it’s playing catch-up lol
Progressive bias?

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:33 pm

Here are the GEFS one by one. Tell you what, N&W is very snowy regardless of the model. Yea GFS is a little less snowy, but look at some of these members. It’s still catching on. 

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 8 Affe9510

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Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:34 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:In typical GFS fashion, it’s playing catch-up lol
Progressive bias?

Bad model 😂

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Post by aiannone Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:38 pm

FWIW, latest RAP and still snowing

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 8 Sn10_a58

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:38 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I know I’ve been largely absent, and I apologize, but from the little bit I’ve peeked at this, I have one thing to say:

If you live in NW NJ, NEPA, the Catskill region and Lower-Mid-Hudson Valley (at any reasonable elevation)……get the yardsticks out. You’re gonna need ‘em. Happy tracking 🙂

Hey pal!!! Hope everything is well with you.

Oh Captain, my Captain, ‘Tis good to see you, Sir!! I can’t complain, but I’ve just been really busy. Have been working seven days a week since the beginning of October trying to get a couple of things set into motion for myself. Knock on wood, the hard work is paying off haha so that’s why I’ve been absent for so long. But I couldn’t NOT at least make a cameo for this storm, and I must admit, it feels a lot better than trying to concentrate on my job like I should be right now 😂 oh well, it’s a Sunday haha

Anyway, I haven’t looked at the hemispheric or tropical mechanisms, but what I’m seeing in H850 through H5 has my alarm bells going off a DEF-CON 5 for an over-performer that models will not see until it’s too late. The 12z long-range HRRR actually looks closest to what we should see on radar regarding the QPF field, assuming the presentation aloft is correct. Also, don’t chase that eastern vort max - it’s feedback. And that is really messing with the models right now. The main show is the parent vorticity diving southeastward, not that lead disturbance. With such a negatively tilted trough aloft super-imposed on the intense frontogenesis beneath it, a prolonged period of symmetric instability should allow pretty prolific snowfall rates of 1-3/2-4” per hour in the areas I mentioned above. Couple that with ratios of anywhere from 15-20:1 (yes, you read that right) for the zones I mentioned, I think 20-30” amounts should be achievable. Again, this is based on some very crude posturing, but this storm is not to be trifled with. It’s not often you see troughs go THIS negative before closing off and maturing, so the atmosphere is gonna do some wild things. Also, don’t be surprised to hear thunder and see lightning with this.
Vintage RB post!

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:39 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS and RGEM have no snow for NYC and coast

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 8 A1dd3010
totally as i expected. Are we discpunting the gfs? Unsettling rgem is same.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:44 pm

The gefs show no snow for coastal even most of nj thats no good. I pray this isnt a flooding rainstorm. Lets hope euro holds.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:47 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:46 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I know I’ve been largely absent, and I apologize, but from the little bit I’ve peeked at this, I have one thing to say:

If you live in NW NJ, NEPA, the Catskill region and Lower-Mid-Hudson Valley (at any reasonable elevation)……get the yardsticks out. You’re gonna need ‘em. Happy tracking 🙂

Hey pal!!! Hope everything is well with you.

Oh Captain, my Captain, ‘Tis good to see you, Sir!! I can’t complain, but I’ve just been really busy. Have been working seven days a week since the beginning of October trying to get a couple of things set into motion for myself. Knock on wood, the hard work is paying off haha so that’s why I’ve been absent for so long. But I couldn’t NOT at least make a cameo for this storm, and I must admit, it feels a lot better than trying to concentrate on my job like I should be right now 😂 oh well, it’s a Sunday haha

Anyway, I haven’t looked at the hemispheric or tropical mechanisms, but what I’m seeing in H850 through H5 has my alarm bells going off a DEF-CON 5 for an over-performer that models will not see until it’s too late. The 12z long-range HRRR actually looks closest to what we should see on radar regarding the QPF field, assuming the presentation aloft is correct. Also, don’t chase that eastern vort max - it’s feedback. And that is really messing with the models right now. The main show is the parent vorticity diving southeastward, not that lead disturbance. With such a negatively tilted trough aloft super-imposed on the intense frontogenesis beneath it, a prolonged period of symmetric instability should allow pretty prolific snowfall rates of 1-3/2-4” per hour in the areas I mentioned above. Couple that with ratios of anywhere from 15-20:1 (yes, you read that right) for the zones I mentioned, I think 20-30” amounts should be achievable. Again, this is based on some very crude posturing, but this storm is not to be trifled with. It’s not often you see troughs go THIS negative before closing off and maturing, so the atmosphere is gonna do some wild things. Also, don’t be surprised to hear thunder and see lightning with this.
Vintage RB post!
hey rb! What u thinking for nyc snd just inlsnd lr hrrr shows very heavy snow to the coast. Were you say you believe that or just the intensity of precip with precip type unsure?
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:47 pm

aiannone wrote:FWIW, latest RAP and still snowing

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 8 Sn10_a58
The ULL on the RAP continues to be a good coastal exit location.

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 8 Rap11

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Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:55 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I know I’ve been largely absent, and I apologize, but from the little bit I’ve peeked at this, I have one thing to say:

If you live in NW NJ, NEPA, the Catskill region and Lower-Mid-Hudson Valley (at any reasonable elevation)……get the yardsticks out. You’re gonna need ‘em. Happy tracking 🙂

Hey pal!!! Hope everything is well with you.

Oh Captain, my Captain, ‘Tis good to see you, Sir!! I can’t complain, but I’ve just been really busy. Have been working seven days a week since the beginning of October trying to get a couple of things set into motion for myself. Knock on wood, the hard work is paying off haha so that’s why I’ve been absent for so long. But I couldn’t NOT at least make a cameo for this storm, and I must admit, it feels a lot better than trying to concentrate on my job like I should be right now 😂 oh well, it’s a Sunday haha

Anyway, I haven’t looked at the hemispheric or tropical mechanisms, but what I’m seeing in H850 through H5 has my alarm bells going off a DEF-CON 5 for an over-performer that models will not see until it’s too late. The 12z long-range HRRR actually looks closest to what we should see on radar regarding the QPF field, assuming the presentation aloft is correct. Also, don’t chase that eastern vort max - it’s feedback. And that is really messing with the models right now. The main show is the parent vorticity diving southeastward, not that lead disturbance. With such a negatively tilted trough aloft super-imposed on the intense frontogenesis beneath it, a prolonged period of symmetric instability should allow pretty prolific snowfall rates of 1-3/2-4” per hour in the areas I mentioned above. Couple that with ratios of anywhere from 15-20:1 (yes, you read that right) for the zones I mentioned, I think 20-30” amounts should be achievable. Again, this is based on some very crude posturing, but this storm is not to be trifled with. It’s not often you see troughs go THIS negative before closing off and maturing, so the atmosphere is gonna do some wild things. Also, don’t be surprised to hear thunder and see lightning with this.
Vintage RB post!
hey rb! What u thinking for nyc snd just inlsnd lr hrrr shows very heavy snow to the coast. Were you say you believe that or just the intensity of precip with precip type unsure?

To be honest, I haven’t even looked for that area, so I don’t want to put a firm amount range, but several inches are likely, though I don’t think more than 10” for NYC.

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Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:56 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
aiannone wrote:FWIW, latest RAP and still snowing

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 8 Sn10_a58
The ULL on the RAP continues to be a good coastal exit location.

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 8 Rap11

All that matters. Track the H850-H5 progression, that will tell you everything you need to know. This verbatim is a nuke for the northern and western members of our forum.

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Post by aiannone Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:57 pm

12z UKMET
March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 8 33497510

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Post by aiannone Sun Mar 12, 2023 1:01 pm

WOW!
March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 8 33545510

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Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 12, 2023 1:01 pm

aiannone wrote:12z UKMET
March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 8 33497510

Feedback dragging it east, IMO. It’s good through 42 at H5, then at 48 it goes haywire.

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Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 12, 2023 1:04 pm

rb924119 wrote:
aiannone wrote:12z UKMET
March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 8 33497510

Feedback dragging it east, IMO. It’s good through 42 at H5, then at 48 it goes haywire.

The key is that it’s correcting itself. If you look at the multi-run trend over on Pivotal you’d see that 🙂

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Mar 12, 2023 1:06 pm

Seems like CCB could be really special in some areas. Folks lucky enough to get under a band may see something really special.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 12, 2023 1:08 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I know I’ve been largely absent, and I apologize, but from the little bit I’ve peeked at this, I have one thing to say:

If you live in NW NJ, NEPA, the Catskill region and Lower-Mid-Hudson Valley (at any reasonable elevation)……get the yardsticks out. You’re gonna need ‘em. Happy tracking 🙂

Hey pal!!! Hope everything is well with you.

Oh Captain, my Captain, ‘Tis good to see you, Sir!! I can’t complain, but I’ve just been really busy. Have been working seven days a week since the beginning of October trying to get a couple of things set into motion for myself. Knock on wood, the hard work is paying off haha so that’s why I’ve been absent for so long. But I couldn’t NOT at least make a cameo for this storm, and I must admit, it feels a lot better than trying to concentrate on my job like I should be right now 😂 oh well, it’s a Sunday haha

Anyway, I haven’t looked at the hemispheric or tropical mechanisms, but what I’m seeing in H850 through H5 has my alarm bells going off a DEF-CON 5 for an over-performer that models will not see until it’s too late. The 12z long-range HRRR actually looks closest to what we should see on radar regarding the QPF field, assuming the presentation aloft is correct. Also, don’t chase that eastern vort max - it’s feedback. And that is really messing with the models right now. The main show is the parent vorticity diving southeastward, not that lead disturbance. With such a negatively tilted trough aloft super-imposed on the intense frontogenesis beneath it, a prolonged period of symmetric instability should allow pretty prolific snowfall rates of 1-3/2-4” per hour in the areas I mentioned above. Couple that with ratios of anywhere from 15-20:1 (yes, you read that right) for the zones I mentioned, I think 20-30” amounts should be achievable. Again, this is based on some very crude posturing, but this storm is not to be trifled with. It’s not often you see troughs go THIS negative before closing off and maturing, so the atmosphere is gonna do some wild things. Also, don’t be surprised to hear thunder and see lightning with this.
Vintage RB post!
hey rb! What u thinking for nyc snd just inlsnd lr hrrr shows very heavy snow to the coast. Were you say you believe that or just the intensity of precip with precip type unsure?

To be honest, I haven’t even looked for that area, so I don’t want to put a firm amount range, but several inches are likely, though I don’t think more than 10” for NYC.
Well thats fine with me, honestly 20 plus inches is too much for my old back lol but man if GFS wasn't rain we would be the bullseye on 12z run. Maybe if you get a chance you could look at coastal locations as many of us are in the areas that GFS shows nada. Wouldn't a storm like this play some possible tricks with the temps? I think thats what the Euro and NAM and HRRR are showing no? May be a nowcast type thing except well NW they are set for lots of gold.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 12, 2023 1:11 pm

rb924119 wrote:
aiannone wrote:12z UKMET
March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 8 33497510

Feedback dragging it east, IMO. It’s good through 42 at H5, then at 48 it goes haywire.
That's nuts best run yet for coast and a large part of our coverage area for forum, do I believe 12-20+ for NYC and surrounding areas..I sure would like to, not sure bout that though. But it isn't off table IMO, unless we lose it on all models. This is a roller coaster ride jeeze, I think mother nature has been feeling bi-pol5r past few days and taking it out on the models.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Mar 12, 2023 1:14 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 12, 2023 1:13 pm

Nail biting for Euro, of course cuz daylight savings now everything is later. Or is it the reverse I forget.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 12, 2023 1:16 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Seems like CCB could be really special in some areas. Folks lucky enough to get under a band may see something really special.

Conceptually, I think it will be one big band instead of two or three main ones. Almost more like a CDO of a hurricane. We’ll see though.

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Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 12, 2023 1:17 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I know I’ve been largely absent, and I apologize, but from the little bit I’ve peeked at this, I have one thing to say:

If you live in NW NJ, NEPA, the Catskill region and Lower-Mid-Hudson Valley (at any reasonable elevation)……get the yardsticks out. You’re gonna need ‘em. Happy tracking 🙂

Hey pal!!! Hope everything is well with you.

Oh Captain, my Captain, ‘Tis good to see you, Sir!! I can’t complain, but I’ve just been really busy. Have been working seven days a week since the beginning of October trying to get a couple of things set into motion for myself. Knock on wood, the hard work is paying off haha so that’s why I’ve been absent for so long. But I couldn’t NOT at least make a cameo for this storm, and I must admit, it feels a lot better than trying to concentrate on my job like I should be right now 😂 oh well, it’s a Sunday haha

Anyway, I haven’t looked at the hemispheric or tropical mechanisms, but what I’m seeing in H850 through H5 has my alarm bells going off a DEF-CON 5 for an over-performer that models will not see until it’s too late. The 12z long-range HRRR actually looks closest to what we should see on radar regarding the QPF field, assuming the presentation aloft is correct. Also, don’t chase that eastern vort max - it’s feedback. And that is really messing with the models right now. The main show is the parent vorticity diving southeastward, not that lead disturbance. With such a negatively tilted trough aloft super-imposed on the intense frontogenesis beneath it, a prolonged period of symmetric instability should allow pretty prolific snowfall rates of 1-3/2-4” per hour in the areas I mentioned above. Couple that with ratios of anywhere from 15-20:1 (yes, you read that right) for the zones I mentioned, I think 20-30” amounts should be achievable. Again, this is based on some very crude posturing, but this storm is not to be trifled with. It’s not often you see troughs go THIS negative before closing off and maturing, so the atmosphere is gonna do some wild things. Also, don’t be surprised to hear thunder and see lightning with this.
Vintage RB post!
hey rb! What u thinking for nyc snd just inlsnd lr hrrr shows very heavy snow to the coast. Were you say you believe that or just the intensity of precip with precip type unsure?

To be honest, I haven’t even looked for that area, so I don’t want to put a firm amount range, but several inches are likely, though I don’t think more than 10” for NYC.
Well thats fine with me, honestly 20 plus inches is too much for my old back lol but man if GFS wasn't rain we would be the bullseye on 12z run. Maybe if you get a chance you could look at coastal locations as many of us are in the areas that GFS shows nada. Wouldn't a storm like this play some possible tricks with the temps? I think thats what the Euro and NAM and HRRR are showing no? May be a nowcast type thing except well NW they are set for lots of gold.

I can try, but I can’t promise anything. Maybe late tonight, but by that point we should know anyway aha

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Post by billg315 Sun Mar 12, 2023 1:28 pm

Might be wishful thinking but my level of distrust of the gfs is such that seeing the NAM and EURO of similar mind leads me to basically not lend any credence to the gfs at this stage.
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