Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

by **rb924119** Sun Mar 12, 2023 1:17 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I know I’ve been largely absent, and I apologize, but from the little bit I’ve peeked at this, I have one thing to say:

If you live in NW NJ, NEPA, the Catskill region and Lower-Mid-Hudson Valley (at any reasonable elevation)……get the yardsticks out. You’re gonna need ‘em. Happy tracking

Hey pal!!! Hope everything is well with you.

Oh Captain, my Captain, ‘Tis good to see you, Sir!! I can’t complain, but I’ve just been really busy. Have been working seven days a week since the beginning of October trying to get a couple of things set into motion for myself. Knock on wood, the hard work is paying off haha so that’s why I’ve been absent for so long. But I couldn’t NOT at least make a cameo for this storm, and I must admit, it feels a lot better than trying to concentrate on my job like I should be right now oh well, it’s a Sunday haha

Anyway, I haven’t looked at the hemispheric or tropical mechanisms, but what I’m seeing in H850 through H5 has my alarm bells going off a DEF-CON 5 for an over-performer that models will not see until it’s too late. The 12z long-range HRRR actually looks closest to what we should see on radar regarding the QPF field, assuming the presentation aloft is correct. Also, don’t chase that eastern vort max - it’s feedback. And that is really messing with the models right now. The main show is the parent vorticity diving southeastward, not that lead disturbance. With such a negatively tilted trough aloft super-imposed on the intense frontogenesis beneath it, a prolonged period of symmetric instability should allow pretty prolific snowfall rates of 1-3/2-4” per hour in the areas I mentioned above. Couple that with ratios of anywhere from 15-20:1 (yes, you read that right) for the zones I mentioned, I think 20-30” amounts should be achievable. Again, this is based on some very crude posturing, but this storm is not to be trifled with. It’s not often you see troughs go THIS negative before closing off and maturing, so the atmosphere is gonna do some wild things. Also, don’t be surprised to hear thunder and see lightning with this.
Vintage RB post!
hey rb! What u thinking for nyc snd just inlsnd lr hrrr shows very heavy snow to the coast. Were you say you believe that or just the intensity of precip with precip type unsure?

To be honest, I haven’t even looked for that area, so I don’t want to put a firm amount range, but several inches are likely, though I don’t think more than 10” for NYC.
Well thats fine with me, honestly 20 plus inches is too much for my old back lol but man if GFS wasn't rain we would be the bullseye on 12z run. Maybe if you get a chance you could look at coastal locations as many of us are in the areas that GFS shows nada. Wouldn't a storm like this play some possible tricks with the temps? I think thats what the Euro and NAM and HRRR are showing no? May be a nowcast type thing except well NW they are set for lots of gold.

I can try, but I can’t promise anything. Maybe late tonight, but by that point we should know anyway aha

by **billg315** Sun Mar 12, 2023 1:28 pm

Might be wishful thinking but my level of distrust of the gfs is such that seeing the NAM and EURO of similar mind leads me to basically not lend any credence to the gfs at this stage.

by **jmanley32** Sun Mar 12, 2023 1:29 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I know I’ve been largely absent, and I apologize, but from the little bit I’ve peeked at this, I have one thing to say:

If you live in NW NJ, NEPA, the Catskill region and Lower-Mid-Hudson Valley (at any reasonable elevation)……get the yardsticks out. You’re gonna need ‘em. Happy tracking

Hey pal!!! Hope everything is well with you.

Oh Captain, my Captain, ‘Tis good to see you, Sir!! I can’t complain, but I’ve just been really busy. Have been working seven days a week since the beginning of October trying to get a couple of things set into motion for myself. Knock on wood, the hard work is paying off haha so that’s why I’ve been absent for so long. But I couldn’t NOT at least make a cameo for this storm, and I must admit, it feels a lot better than trying to concentrate on my job like I should be right now oh well, it’s a Sunday haha

Anyway, I haven’t looked at the hemispheric or tropical mechanisms, but what I’m seeing in H850 through H5 has my alarm bells going off a DEF-CON 5 for an over-performer that models will not see until it’s too late. The 12z long-range HRRR actually looks closest to what we should see on radar regarding the QPF field, assuming the presentation aloft is correct. Also, don’t chase that eastern vort max - it’s feedback. And that is really messing with the models right now. The main show is the parent vorticity diving southeastward, not that lead disturbance. With such a negatively tilted trough aloft super-imposed on the intense frontogenesis beneath it, a prolonged period of symmetric instability should allow pretty prolific snowfall rates of 1-3/2-4” per hour in the areas I mentioned above. Couple that with ratios of anywhere from 15-20:1 (yes, you read that right) for the zones I mentioned, I think 20-30” amounts should be achievable. Again, this is based on some very crude posturing, but this storm is not to be trifled with. It’s not often you see troughs go THIS negative before closing off and maturing, so the atmosphere is gonna do some wild things. Also, don’t be surprised to hear thunder and see lightning with this.
Vintage RB post!
hey rb! What u thinking for nyc snd just inlsnd lr hrrr shows very heavy snow to the coast. Were you say you believe that or just the intensity of precip with precip type unsure?

To be honest, I haven’t even looked for that area, so I don’t want to put a firm amount range, but several inches are likely, though I don’t think more than 10” for NYC.
Well thats fine with me, honestly 20 plus inches is too much for my old back lol but man if GFS wasn't rain we would be the bullseye on 12z run. Maybe if you get a chance you could look at coastal locations as many of us are in the areas that GFS shows nada. Wouldn't a storm like this play some possible tricks with the temps? I think thats what the Euro and NAM and HRRR are showing no? May be a nowcast type thing except well NW they are set for lots of gold.

I can try, but I can’t promise anything. Maybe late tonight, but by that point we should know anyway aha

Hopefully but who knows, yeah don't worry bout it we will find out one way or another. Lots of ideas and uncertainty still at no fault other than the models.

by **jmanley32** Sun Mar 12, 2023 1:30 pm

billg315 wrote:Might be wishful thinking but my level of distrust of the gfs is such that seeing the NAM and EURO of similar mind leads me to basically not lend any credence to the gfs at this stage.

I think its a little less than wishful thinking (kinda makes sense to me also), lets see what Euro shows, if it backs off we down closer to coast may have to bank of the SR models, if they start to back off we can enjoy a wind driven rain...ugg

by **MattyICE** Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:13 pm

I’m mobile and don’t have a map so someone who does can help - but the Euro took a noticeable step back. Sobering run to reset expectations for now.

by **aiannone** Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:14 pm

Euro was a no go for the coast

by **billg315** Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:14 pm

12z Euro not a great run for those more South on the board. Keeps heaviest snow totals largely north of I-80 and NW of NYC.

by **jmanley32** Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:18 pm

aiannone wrote:Euro was a no go for the coast

welp thats a wrap imo for the coast that is. I fully expect all the SR to do the same in coming runs. Normally i wouldnt jump after 1 run but we are within 36 hrs and euro stopp showing the goods for coast. Congrats NW.

by **billg315** Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:20 pm

The H5 doesn’t look that different than the prior runs. The 850 look is just slightly further north with the energy and the heavy snow band on the backside shifts about 25-50 miles north.

by CNWestMilford Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:21 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
aiannone wrote:Euro was a no go for the coast
welp thats a wrap imo.

Well, if that’s a wrap… then perhaps there’s no reason for you to post anymore about this storm.

by **billg315** Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:24 pm

I would caution a couple things: we may be a little out of practice with the model watching this winter, but remember, in every storm we track models wobble back and forth at times so one run does not a storm make or break. Let’s see what happens with the 18z Euro before we call it a bad trend. Second, we’re getting more into the NAMs wheelhouse now so I’ll be more concerned if the next NAM run goes north on us.

by CNWestMilford Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:28 pm

billg315 wrote:I would caution a couple things: we may be a little out of practice with the model watching this winter, but remember, in every storm we track models wobble back and forth at times so one run does not a storm make or break. Let’s see what happens with the 18z Euro before we call it a bad trend. Second, we’re getting more into the NAMs wheelhouse now so I’ll be more concerned if the next NAM run goes north on us.

Mesos are showing one LOW.
Globals are showing double barrel LOWS.

by **jmanley32** Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:30 pm

CNWestMilford wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
aiannone wrote:Euro was a no go for the coast
welp thats a wrap imo.

Well, if that’s a wrap… then perhaps there’s no reason for you to post anymore about this storm.

whetes the dislike button so you can only like on here? Ill do what i want but im headed in that direction. Im surprised others dont think its over for coasties.

by **heehaw453** Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:30 pm

billg315 wrote:The H5 doesn’t look that different than the prior runs. The 850 look is just slightly further north with the energy and the heavy snow band on the backside shifts about 25-50 miles north.

It's different right here and this is soooo important. This needs to close off 50 miles south of here for many on this board. I caution that I've seen these ULLs go higher than modelled. That's why I remain very cautious on this. But no matter I travel to the snow.

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 9 Euro135

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:31 pm

The EURO caved to the GFS to be honest.

I do believe this is a nowcast event, but I have enough information at this point to put out a first call snow map. Probably in a couple of hours

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:31 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
billg315 wrote:The H5 doesn’t look that different than the prior runs. The 850 look is just slightly further north with the energy and the heavy snow band on the backside shifts about 25-50 miles north.
It's different right here and this is soooo important. This needs to close off 50 miles south of here for many on this board. I caution that I've seen these ULLs go higher than modelled. That's why I remain very cautious on this. But no matter I travel to the snow.

Can you post the 00z for point of comp?

by **heehaw453** Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:34 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
billg315 wrote:The H5 doesn’t look that different than the prior runs. The 850 look is just slightly further north with the energy and the heavy snow band on the backside shifts about 25-50 miles north.
It's different right here and this is soooo important. This needs to close off 50 miles south of here for many on this board. I caution that I've seen these ULLs go higher than modelled. That's why I remain very cautious on this. But no matter I travel to the snow.

Can you post the 00z for point of comp?

of course.

00z 3/12

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 9 Euro227

12z 3/12

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 9 Euro136

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:39 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
billg315 wrote:The H5 doesn’t look that different than the prior runs. The 850 look is just slightly further north with the energy and the heavy snow band on the backside shifts about 25-50 miles north.
It's different right here and this is soooo important. This needs to close off 50 miles south of here for many on this board. I caution that I've seen these ULLs go higher than modelled. That's why I remain very cautious on this. But no matter I travel to the snow.

Can you post the 00z for point of comp?
of course.

00z 3/12

12z 3/12

What a difference a few miles makes. Jesus

On the plus side, whose to say it can’t shift south again? It’s truly a nowcast

by **jmanley32** Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:39 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
billg315 wrote:The H5 doesn’t look that different than the prior runs. The 850 look is just slightly further north with the energy and the heavy snow band on the backside shifts about 25-50 miles north.
It's different right here and this is soooo important. This needs to close off 50 miles south of here for many on this board. I caution that I've seen these ULLs go higher than modelled. That's why I remain very cautious on this. But no matter I travel to the snow.

Can you post the 00z for point of comp?
of course.

00z 3/12

12z 3/12

Thats a pretty big shift no?

by **heehaw453** Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:41 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
CNWestMilford wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
aiannone wrote:Euro was a no go for the coast
welp thats a wrap imo.

Well, if that’s a wrap… then perhaps there’s no reason for you to post anymore about this storm.
whetes the dislike button so you can only like on here? Ill do what i want but im headed in that direction. Im surprised others dont think its over for coasties.

jman it's not over. But im skeptical of the coast and fundamentally i go back to temps every time. Everything has just got to be really right for this to show what these mesos are showing. It's possible, but IMO not likely ATTM. Some snow sure, but the high probability threat area is what RB outlined before and yes elevation will matter as RB pointed out.

by **jmanley32** Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:42 pm

CNWestMilford wrote:
billg315 wrote:I would caution a couple things: we may be a little out of practice with the model watching this winter, but remember, in every storm we track models wobble back and forth at times so one run does not a storm make or break. Let’s see what happens with the 18z Euro before we call it a bad trend. Second, we’re getting more into the NAMs wheelhouse now so I’ll be more concerned if the next NAM run goes north on us.

Mesos are showing one LOW.
Globals are showing double barrel LOWS.

Very good point and observation, they can't both be right (SR and LR), seems the one LP would be the better outcome for everyone. The wait and see is what kills me, is it just me or have models just gotten worse and worse even with all the upgrades? I get this is a complex set up with so many factors and probably surprises to come, for better or worse.

by **heehaw453** Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:42 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
billg315 wrote:The H5 doesn’t look that different than the prior runs. The 850 look is just slightly further north with the energy and the heavy snow band on the backside shifts about 25-50 miles north.
It's different right here and this is soooo important. This needs to close off 50 miles south of here for many on this board. I caution that I've seen these ULLs go higher than modelled. That's why I remain very cautious on this. But no matter I travel to the snow.

Can you post the 00z for point of comp?
of course.

00z 3/12

12z 3/12
Thats a pretty big shift no?

it's a pin drop IMO. Could be noise either way but damn it matters.

by **billg315** Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:42 pm

Globally not much of a shift at all - but locally as heehaw points out and Frank just said - a world of difference for many on this board (or a few million people or so, lol).

by **jmanley32** Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:43 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
CNWestMilford wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
aiannone wrote:Euro was a no go for the coast
welp thats a wrap imo.

Well, if that’s a wrap… then perhaps there’s no reason for you to post anymore about this storm.
whetes the dislike button so you can only like on here? Ill do what i want but im headed in that direction. Im surprised others dont think its over for coasties.
jman it's not over. But im skeptical of the coast and fundamentally i go back to temps every time. Everything has just got to be really right for this to show what these mesos are showing. It's possible, but IMO not likely ATTM. Some snow sure, but the high probability threat area is what RB outlined before and yes elevation will matter as RB pointed out.

Yes and I just was so hopeful the Euro would not waver to the GFS, thats what set me off sorry for the trigger typing all. I will try to keep it in check, at this point I personally am only go look at Meso runs, those IMO are going to do the best.

Pretty sure I know what Franks snow map is gonna look like so I am already prepared for that, and hopefully there may be changes for coast tomorrow as SR models come into main focus, if they to trend to GFS, Euro then I think it will be case closed for coast unless all the models are wrong which is highly doubtful. I also realize this is not the best time of year to get snow on the coast.

by CNWestMilford Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:50 pm

billg315 wrote:The H5 doesn’t look that different than the prior runs. The 850 look is just slightly further north with the energy and the heavy snow band on the backside shifts about 25-50 miles north.

Its west with the 500mb ULL from 6z but chases the convection to the east.

by **rb924119** Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:54 pm

I didn’t even realize the EURO was out yet lol thought it was just initializing. Some met I am -_- haha

I think this is likely just noise more than a “shift”. And I also think that “lobe” of vorticity on the eastern side is not necessarily real. The trend of having that be weaker and the “primary” associated with the main trough be stronger continued. That’s what I’m more concerned with. And through 42 I think we were ok. But then after that that eastern “phantom” vorticity tried to stretch everything out and it created a cascade of effects that drew the progression too far to the northeast. But, I’ve been wrong before haha

by **heehaw453** Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:58 pm

CNWestMilford wrote:
billg315 wrote:The H5 doesn’t look that different than the prior runs. The 850 look is just slightly further north with the energy and the heavy snow band on the backside shifts about 25-50 miles north.

Its west with the 500mb ULL from 6z but chases the convection to the east.

The ULL will drive the whole train. If that it north as it hits the coast then all the mid-level energy will follow suit and you get the BIG snows much further north towards Catskills. Ultimately that's what i believe is going to be the case.

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