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March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

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SENJsnowman
weatherwatchermom
essexcountypete
Dunnzoo
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CNWestMilford
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26 posters

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Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:54 am

I didn’t even realize the EURO was out yet lol thought it was just initializing. Some met I am -_- haha

I think this is likely just noise more than a “shift”. And I also think that “lobe” of vorticity on the eastern side is not necessarily real. The trend of having that be weaker and the “primary” associated with the main trough be stronger continued. That’s what I’m more concerned with. And through 42 I think we were ok. But then after that that eastern “phantom” vorticity tried to stretch everything out and it created a cascade of effects that drew the progression too far to the northeast. But, I’ve been wrong before haha

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:58 am

CNWestMilford wrote:
billg315 wrote:The H5 doesn’t look that different than the prior runs. The 850 look is just slightly further north with the energy and the heavy snow band on the backside shifts about 25-50 miles north.


Its west with the 500mb ULL from 6z but chases the convection to the east.
The ULL will drive the whole train.  If that it north as it hits the coast then all the mid-level energy will follow suit and you get the BIG snows much further north towards Catskills. Ultimately that's what i believe is going to be the case.

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Post by Koroptim Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:03 pm

I’ve lurked here for years and rarely comment. This storm just feels like a last desperate attempt by us snow starved people to see white gold. What falls will melt within days, whether two inches or two feet. Mentally I’m onto next winter already. Appreciate all of the hard work by the talented members on this board. See you in November 🙏🏻

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Post by billg315 Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:26 pm

I won’t be able to offer much analysis the next few hours as I’ll be at a bar and following the models on my phone - that’s two strikes against accuracy.
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Post by CNWestMilford Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:30 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
CNWestMilford wrote:
billg315 wrote:The H5 doesn’t look that different than the prior runs. The 850 look is just slightly further north with the energy and the heavy snow band on the backside shifts about 25-50 miles north.


Its west with the 500mb ULL from 6z but chases the convection to the east.
The ULL will drive the whole train.  If that it north as it hits the coast then all the mid-level energy will follow suit and you get the BIG snows much further north towards Catskills. Ultimately that's what i believe is going to be the case.
I’m having a hard time believing the Low goes that far east and then somehow swings back west south of Maine??. Where’s the mechanism to do this?
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Post by amugs Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:30 pm

The H5 of the EURO was basically the same and it they shift is not a trend. For the negative its over etc. please take to banter and complain and vent there. This was a hair away from another 6Z run. These dynamic storms will cause the models to have fits have we not learned??
Anyone know about the March super storm 1993 30 years ago the infighting at NWS about the storm?? Many thought climo and it would be a massive rainstorm and others thought what we got but not even to the extent as it took until the day before at earliest to raise the red flag. Now I know it is 2023 not 1993 but even without most advanced tech we still do not know what will be the outcome. Globals struggle with the LP placements due to the massive dynamics of latent heat release by these beasts. Heck even hi res models struggle.
AND RB is the HOUSE so if you do not think is real, then I do not know what to tell ya. Let’s see what we have 18Z and tonight’s 0Z before we may even be able to decipher what will happen in 24 hours. To say GFS is right when for the LOVE Of GOD it’s been a cutter 3 days ago into Syracuse to a major coastal to a weaker storm that jumps east etc. Euro as well has had run to run variance.

Any snow is good.
WE TRACK!!!

EPS MEAN and GEFS actually increased snow amounts and shifted a tad S of 6+ inches

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 10 12z_ep10


EPS - circled in blue would be zilla's!!
March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 10 Eps_lp10



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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:35 pm

Banter maybe but having -4 sigma AO in December and coming up empty in NYC is unprecedented and the theme is it's difficult to snow on the coastal plain this season hell most of the area. Call it luck, la nina, tropical forcing, SER, whatever you'd like but Koroptim alluded to it and this season has been absolutely brutal for us snow lovers. IMBY it's the worst I've seen.

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Post by frank 638 Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:39 pm

amugs wrote:The H5 of the EURO was basically the same and it they shift is not a trend. For the negative its over etc. please take to banter and complain and vent there. This was a hair away from another 6Z run. These dynamic storms will cause the models to have fits have we not learned??
Anyone know about the March super storm 1993 30 years ago the infighting at NWS about the storm?? Many thought climo and it would be a massive rainstorm and others thought what we got but not even to the extent as it took until the day before at earliest to raise the red flag. Now I know it is 2023 not 1993 but even without most advanced tech we still do not know what will be the outcome. Globals struggle with the LP placements due to the massive dynamics of latent heat release by these beasts. Heck even hi res models struggle.
AND RB is the HOUSE so if you do not think is real, then I do not know what to tell ya. Let’s see what we have 18Z and tonight’s 0Z before we may even be able to decipher what will happen in 24 hours. To say GFS is right when for the LOVE Of GOD it’s been a cutter 3 days ago into Syracuse to a major coastal to a weaker storm that jumps east etc. Euro as well has had run to run variance. I do remember the 93 super storm I was 9 years old I remember my parents saying the snow is going to change to rain for the city it never happened we ended up getting heavy wind driven sleet for hours then it turn back to snow .for this I hope I will be happy with 4 inches or more

Any snow is good.
WE TRACK!!!

EPS MEAN and GEFS actually increased snow amounts and shifted a tad S of 6+ inches

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 10 12z_ep10


EPS - circled in blue would be zilla's!!
March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 10 Eps_lp10



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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:53 pm

frank 638 wrote:
amugs wrote:The H5 of the EURO was basically the same and it they shift is not a trend. For the negative its over etc. please take to banter and complain and vent there. This was a hair away from another 6Z run. These dynamic storms will cause the models to have fits have we not learned??
Anyone know about the March super storm 1993 30 years ago the infighting at NWS about the storm?? Many thought climo and it would be a massive rainstorm and others thought what we got but not even to the extent as it took until the day before at earliest to raise the red flag. Now I know it is 2023 not 1993 but even without most advanced tech we still do not know what will be the outcome. Globals struggle with the LP placements due to the massive dynamics of latent heat release by these beasts. Heck even hi res models struggle.
AND RB is the HOUSE so if you do not think is real, then I do not know what to tell ya. Let’s see what we have 18Z and tonight’s 0Z before we may even be able to decipher what will happen in 24 hours. To say GFS is right when for the LOVE Of GOD it’s been a cutter 3 days ago into Syracuse to a major coastal to a weaker storm that jumps east etc. Euro as well has had run to run variance. I do remember the 93 super storm I was 9 years old I remember my parents saying the snow is going to change to rain for the city it never happened we ended up getting heavy wind driven sleet for hours then it turn back to snow .for this I hope I will be happy with 4 inches or more

Any snow is good.
WE TRACK!!!

EPS MEAN and GEFS actually increased snow amounts and shifted a tad S of 6+ inches

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 10 12z_ep10


EPS - circled in blue would be zilla's!!
March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 10 Eps_lp10


Oh boy do I I was about 10 or so (Living in central CT at the time) New Haven area and I recall the storm was a no go or very little and ended up virtually shutting down New Haven. We can hope. No more banter here from me mugs, if I need let any out Ill go to banter. Also Boxing Day blizzard 24 hrs before it was going to miss, I ended up getting like 28 inches. I do not recall the set up but the difference is the cold it seems with this, we do not have a lot unless we can get the LP to do some dynamic cooling. And that map I would be very happy with, a 6 inch storm would be great, anything more would be epic for this year lol
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Post by amugs Sun Mar 12, 2023 1:05 pm

UPTON WSW For Rockland, Northern Westchester and Western Bergen Counties

From Met Bobby Martrich

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 10 FrBzorIXsAENku-?format=jpg&name=medium

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Sun Mar 12, 2023 1:06 pm

BOOM!!!

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 10 PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Mar 12, 2023 1:16 pm

Im surprised all of NW NJ/Poconos and Orange Cty aren't under warnings at this point.  Seems enough support is there ATTM.

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