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March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

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SENJsnowman
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Frank_Wx
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amugs
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jmanley32
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Quietace
heehaw453
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March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 6 Empty Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:57 am

docstox12 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Run after run the EURO keeps showing this meso low just off the coast, allowing colder air to infiltrate down to the coast. It also keeps showing the CCB over NYC Metro. Here is the 06z snow map. I’ll see if I can find a depth map some place

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 6 D4-AD6134-7-D0-A-4644-889-E-EA4-A98305-F12
do you have the 00z map was it similar? And cmc was sililar in totals so we have 2 models kinda in same camp.

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 6 Sn10-acc-imp-us-ne
thats the euro says gdps. Thats ok fpund it on pivotal i didnt realize ypu could see hi res euro on there. So 06z upped snti even more. But you know the 06z and 18z.

We interrupt this regularly scheduled thread on the Mainland Weather Board to bring an urgent message to CP aka Wintercoldandsnoware a myth......IGNORE these clown snow maps! Believing they will come true and having it bust can have severe mental implications, including a complete collapse!That is all.

Brought to you by your genial Director of the OTI Sanitarium.
lol yup nice to look at but hard to put stock in yet.

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Post by docstox12 Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:59 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Run after run the EURO keeps showing this meso low just off the coast, allowing colder air to infiltrate down to the coast. It also keeps showing the CCB over NYC Metro. Here is the 06z snow map. I’ll see if I can find a depth map some place

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 6 D4-AD6134-7-D0-A-4644-889-E-EA4-A98305-F12
do you have the 00z map was it similar? And cmc was sililar in totals so we have 2 models kinda in same camp.

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 6 Sn10-acc-imp-us-ne
thats the euro says gdps. Thats ok fpund it on pivotal i didnt realize ypu could see hi res euro on there. So 06z upped snti even more. But you know the 06z and 18z.

We interrupt this regularly scheduled thread on the Mainland Weather Board to bring an urgent message to CP aka Wintercoldandsnoware a myth......IGNORE these clown snow maps! Believing they will come true and having it bust can have severe mental implications, including a complete collapse!That is all.

Brought to you by your genial Director of the OTI Sanitarium.

If the 12z runs look like this I may need seek asylum in OTI

Emperor Frank, you have Carte Blanche 24/7 at OTI.
Map mayhem at it's best!

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Post by Quietace Sun Mar 12, 2023 9:07 am

The model differences basically are down to one thing, the leading southern stream energy. Does it get the heck out of dodge and stay weak like on the NAM, or is it like the ECMWF and get wrapped up in the flow.
This is the differences between a heavy rain storm, or rain changing to a VERY HEAVY WET snow on the backside of the system for the area.

It is a tough ask right now to say which is right, and I feel we might see a large amount of changes today, especially with the meso models coming into range (one way or another). I woke up and looked at the 3km Nam and said "that looks reasonable", and then I remember that clearly it had brain washed me and I came back to my senses.
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Post by dkodgis Sun Mar 12, 2023 9:13 am

There is in fact a vote going on right now at the OTI lounge.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 12, 2023 9:25 am

Quietace wrote:The model differences basically are down to one thing, the leading southern stream energy. Does it get the heck out of dodge and stay weak like on the NAM, or is it like the ECMWF and get wrapped up in the flow.
This is the differences between a heavy rain storm, or rain changing to a VERY HEAVY WET snow on the backside of the system for the area.

It is a tough ask right now to say which is right, and I feel we might see a large amount of changes today, especially with the meso models coming into range (one way or another). I woke up and looked at the 3km Nam and said "that looks reasonable", and then I remember that clearly it had brain washed me and I came back to my senses.
Ya but it was a pure thing of beauty, those returns over MBY were insane and it just crawls and is not done at 60 hrs, if it did not start as rain we would all have a roid. I honestly hope it is at least onto something with the cold coming down to coast, but it also has Euro, CMC and SREf support. 12z and 00z will be very interesting, your right this could do a complete 180 so I am preparing for that, no OTI for me, I have my own coping skills lol And since there will be some wind 30-40mph a heavy wet snow is not good. But I guess if we want snow then thats what we will have to take.
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Mar 12, 2023 9:34 am

The SREF may be heavily influenced by the RAP. But FWIW it's driving the ULL south. Need to see models go that road with consistency and further south IMO. Can't walk backwards got to see clear trends of that ridge driving that ULL down.  This ridge is better than that last fiasco no doubt.

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 6 Rap10

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Mar 12, 2023 9:37 am

Quietace wrote:The model differences basically are down to one thing, the leading southern stream energy. Does it get the heck out of dodge and stay weak like on the NAM, or is it like the ECMWF and get wrapped up in the flow.
This is the differences between a heavy rain storm, or rain changing to a VERY HEAVY WET snow on the backside of the system for the area.

It is a tough ask right now to say which is right, and I feel we might see a large amount of changes today, especially with the meso models coming into range (one way or another). I woke up and looked at the 3km Nam and said "that looks reasonable", and then I remember that clearly it had brain washed me and I came back to my senses.
I think driving the trailing ULL south is key too. I think the ridge is key to that.

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:04 am

HRRR 12Z LoL let's see what this looks like tomorrow.

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 6 Hrrr14

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Post by amugs Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:18 am

This GIF of teh 6Z EURO shows the meso low tucked in along the jersey coast adn then spins at crawl up to CAPE COD. This is how you get a Godzilla for the NYC Metro area in March with a cooler air mass. The dynamic of this will pull a Northerly/NE wind down and cool the BL and once teh snow gets cranking in the CCB the column crashes. Also this is slated to be over night Monday which helps with stickage to roads due to teh higher sun angle now.

Watch the mini me spin below the bigger low


If this were an arctic air mass such as 2018 we'd have NO WORRIES about stickage and BL but its not, It is a MJO phase 8 which helps bigly.

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Post by amugs Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:24 am

12Z NAM has EURO depiction of storm - great start to 12Z suite shifted a good 50 miles S

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 6 12z_na10

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:26 am

Yeah Mugs the 12Z NAM ULL is digging more due to sharper ridge. It's not sucking me in damn it.

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 6 Nam65

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Post by amugs Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:27 am

12 Z Looks like its going to NUKE NYC METrO, NNJ, LHV, HV and LI
NAM


March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 6 Nam_4810

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Post by amugs Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:28 am

MOG!!!

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 6 54_nam10
March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 6 Nam_5410

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:29 am

I also like to see the back building of the 700mb moisture transport.  That tells me the 700mb forcing could setup for the area.

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 6 Backbu10

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:34 am

Well the 12z NAM gave the NYC metro quite a NAMing.  Wow.

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Post by aiannone Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:37 am

ATTENTION: WE HAVE JUST BEEN NAM'D

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:40 am

The 12Z NAM3k is impressive with 700mb forcing throughout the area. 

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 6 Nam3k15

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Post by dkodgis Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:45 am

Heehaw, it looks like a dusting to an inch or two before rain for you, plus brisk winds. Maybe it will get better. Up here in northern Orange county, LHV, it looks like things may be starting early morning? Is the timing of this ‘zilla going earlier on us?

Maybe it is time to think about ‘zilla-ing out the board banner!
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:46 am

WOWZA! Nam has 1.5" rain for NENJ on Monday, and then almost a foot of snow Tuesday. I'm going to be busy in my Deputy OEM role this week, we have a brook that goes through town that has flooding potential. With all the rain, and even if we don't get that much snow, with the snowmelt toward the end of the week upstream we could have issues.

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Post by sroc4 Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:48 am

I have to see gfs and euro. Not jumping the gun. We’ve all been Nam’ed before.

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Post by sroc4 Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:49 am

dkodgis wrote:Heehaw, it looks like a dusting to an inch or two before rain for you, plus brisk winds. Maybe it will get better. Up here in northern Orange county, LHV, it looks like things may be starting early morning? Is the timing of this ‘zilla going earlier on us?

Maybe it is time to think about ‘zilla-ing out the board banner!


HOLD THAT THOUGHT!!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:50 am

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 6 9e358810

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:53 am

Godzilla just appeared on the NAM. 

If the GFS makes a trend toward this we’re looking at one heck of a storm

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:56 am

Frank_Wx wrote:March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 6 9e358810
no no no. I cant be nam' lol but it cant be discounted. Nws is go have egg on face if they dont put any alerts for all those areas. I have to imagine even if placement is good those amounts are overdone but who knows. Ya wpuld be one heck storm. And heavy wet snoe leads to power issues even with 35 mph winds. Still holding.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:58 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:56 am

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 6 Ad7cf910

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:01 am

With frank posting so many posts i cant help but get a bit more intrigued. Nam also has rain change to snow earlier for coast. What is time frame that snow kicks in for tristate if it does. If this plays out im guessing i coulf b work from home tues.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:02 am

Frank_Wx wrote:March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 6 Ad7cf910
thats hot...
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