NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

+22
SENJsnowman
weatherwatchermom
essexcountypete
Dunnzoo
aiannone
MattyICE
CPcantmeasuresnow
CNWestMilford
phil155
lglickman1
hyde345
Frank_Wx
nutleyblizzard
amugs
docstox12
Carvin
jmanley32
dkodgis
Coachgriff
Quietace
heehaw453
sroc4
26 posters

Page 7 of 10 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10  Next

Go down

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Empty Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:01 am

With frank posting so many posts i cant help but get a bit more intrigued. Nam also has rain change to snow earlier for coast. What is time frame that snow kicks in for tristate if it does. If this plays out im guessing i coulf b work from home tues.

jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20522
Join date : 2013-12-12

essexcountypete and DAYBLAZER like this post

Back to top Go down

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Empty Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:02 am

Frank_Wx wrote:March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Ad7cf910
thats hot...

jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20522
Join date : 2013-12-12

Back to top Go down

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Empty Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:03 am

The 3k resolution NAM is more impressive than 12K. It actually shows 3 foot snow total amounts in parts of NW NJ. This is clearly an outlier and not to be taken seriously. However, the snowier trend is REAL and we’re just waiting to see the rest of the 12z models come in before sounding the alarms. 

What’s quite bizarre - shocking - sad - is that if the snowfall rates im seeing are anywhere near accurate, some places will triple their year to date snowfall within 1-2 hours

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21305
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Empty Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:03 am

It means absolutely zero but the weather channel app is all in for my town. Now predicting 14 to 22 inches from Monday night through Tuesday afternoon. Like I said last night I have seen maps in the last two days in my area of Orange County showing anything from 4 inches to 36 inches. I am still not sure what to believe.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Empty Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

Post by dkodgis Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:06 am

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 5cc66710[url=https://servimg.com/view/19377918/39]March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 5cc66710[/url]
dkodgis
dkodgis
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2525
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29

essexcountypete and jmanley32 like this post

Back to top Go down

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Empty Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

Post by essexcountypete Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:08 am

I feel like one of those paranormal investigators in a haunted house who is resisting a strong spirit that's trying to possess them.

"You don't have permission to enter my body!"
"The NAM will not possess my soul!"
"I. WILL. RESIST! AAAAARG!!!!"
essexcountypete
essexcountypete
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 783
Reputation : 12
Join date : 2013-12-09
Location : Bloomfield, NJ

Frank_Wx, sroc4 and jmanley32 like this post

Back to top Go down

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Empty Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

Post by MattyICE Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:13 am

NAM is known to overamp but also can do really well in this type of setup. Especially as we get into 18z - 0z later today and tonight. I think while the totals are overdone even if we cut by 50% everyone would take that and run. While I do not but the verbatim totals I will buy the snowier trends if 12z GFS can trend and Euro can largely hold. Also need to see the NAM NOT do what it sometimes does and immediately trend the opposite direction in two runs. Cautious optimism.

MattyICE
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 249
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2017-11-10
Age : 38
Location : Clifton, NJ (Eastern Passaic County)

Back to top Go down

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Empty Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:17 am

What if gfs doesnt change but cmc and euro do? Would we discount the gfs then?


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:43 am; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20522
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

dkodgis likes this post

Back to top Go down

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Empty Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:35 am

Frank_Wx wrote:The 3k resolution NAM is more impressive than 12K. It actually shows 3 foot snow total amounts in parts of NW NJ. This is clearly an outlier and not to be taken seriously. However, the snowier trend is REAL and we’re just waiting to see the rest of the 12z models come in before sounding the alarms. 

What’s quite bizarre - shocking - sad - is that if the snowfall rates im seeing are anywhere near accurate, some places will triple their year to date snowfall within 1-2 hours
those bands over nj nyc and westchester are nuts. Id need 2 hrs or less to double lol. Yes i know im not taking this too seriously yet though hard not to with euro being consistent nam sref and hrrr . Im wait for the mog hold and madonne posts lol and of course the top banner change. Reel it in frank mugs et al.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20522
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Empty Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:44 am

GFS and RGEM have no snow for NYC and coast

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 A1dd3010

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21305
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Empty Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:45 am

So we literally have no idea what’s going on. Great.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21305
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

kalleg likes this post

Back to top Go down

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Empty Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:50 am

Frank_Wx wrote:So we literally have no idea what’s going on. Great.

Brick Brick This winter is just nuts. lol
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3768
Reputation : 78
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 60
Location : Hazlet Township, NJ

kalleg likes this post

Back to top Go down

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Empty Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:50 am

Frank_Wx wrote:So we literally have no idea what’s going on. Great.

Exactly, that map puts me in the 4 to 6 inch area where the euro has me close to 30 inches. I said it last night and maybe I just should do it today it might be time to take at least a good 12 hour break from model watching.

Not a good sign that the rgem came up so negative though especially for the city on south. I found that to be pretty reliable this winter.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Empty Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

Post by aiannone Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:55 am

Frank_Wx wrote:So we literally have no idea what’s going on. Great.

You'd think within 30 hrs of a start time we'd have a very good idea

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4814
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

weatherwatchermom likes this post

Back to top Go down

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Empty Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

Post by SENJsnowman Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:58 am

Watching the 12z run of the NAM 12k, the storm looked like a 100% redo of March 20, 2018. This run actually just brought the G-Z snowfall levels down in to northern OCEAN COUNTY!!  Just miles from my front door!

I still put the probability of any significant accumulating snowfall (ie, >2”) for us down here at only 12.5%. Half of the models show some support for that (that’s a 50% confidence rating) and I have 25% faith in the maps from those models, so, that’s how I got to 12.5%.

That said, For the Jersey Shore, the trend is our friend! Don’t think Jan 2018 or last January, when we were in the bullseye from the get-go. This would have to be more of that March 2018 storm, when we endured seemingly endless and torrential rain, before we back-doored our way in for the last second win! We were also progged for <1” for that storm literally as of the time the snow started.

Ok, I know we’re barely a sidebar down here in this season, so back to the main show, but that’s the report from the Shore.


Last edited by SENJsnowman on Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:00 pm; edited 1 time in total

SENJsnowman
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1186
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 51
Location : Bayville, NJ

weatherwatchermom likes this post

Back to top Go down

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Empty Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:00 pm

If the EURO holds serve I’m going to the store to buy ingredients for meatballs. Love meatballs during a snowstorm. 

If it doesn’t I’ll just cry.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21305
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

docstox12 and weatherwatchermom like this post

Back to top Go down

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Empty Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

Post by essexcountypete Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:04 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:So we literally have no idea what’s going on. Great.

I'm glad I called the NAM exorcist.
essexcountypete
essexcountypete
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 783
Reputation : 12
Join date : 2013-12-09
Location : Bloomfield, NJ

Back to top Go down

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Empty Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

Post by Coachgriff Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:07 pm

Here is my forecast…Broken Hearts…bank on it….100% Accurate!
Coachgriff
Coachgriff

Posts : 57
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2022-01-29

essexcountypete, heehaw453 and Artingerb like this post

Back to top Go down

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Empty Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

Post by Dunnzoo Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:09 pm

But, these snow maps are at 10:1, no way with such wet snow will it hit that, figure 6 or 7:1. And boy will it be heavy. There will be a big difference in accumulation between road surfaces and grassy areas, we could easily lose a few inches if it starts snowing too late here. If we can get the snow in before daybreak we'll have a shot.

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4893
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 62
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Empty Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

Post by heehaw453 Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:10 pm

dkodgis wrote:Heehaw, it looks like a dusting to an inch or two before rain for you, plus brisk winds. Maybe it will get better. Up here in northern Orange county, LHV, it looks like things may be starting early morning? Is the timing of this ‘zilla going earlier on us?

Maybe it is time to think about ‘zilla-ing out the board banner!
i shall go where the snow decides to go my friend. Im on call Cantore style. Your area in Northern Orange Cty is going to do just fine with this setup. Monday night things get interesting for you I think.


Last edited by heehaw453 on Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:10 pm; edited 1 time in total

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3906
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

dkodgis likes this post

Back to top Go down

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Empty Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:10 pm

I know I’ve been largely absent, and I apologize, but from the little bit I’ve peeked at this, I have one thing to say:

If you live in NW NJ, NEPA, the Catskill region and Lower-Mid-Hudson Valley (at any reasonable elevation)……get the yardsticks out. You’re gonna need ‘em. Happy tracking 🙂

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6902
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Frank_Wx, sroc4, docstox12, heehaw453 and MattyICE like this post

Back to top Go down

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Empty Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:15 pm

rb924119 wrote:I know I’ve been largely absent, and I apologize, but from the little bit I’ve peeked at this, I have one thing to say:

If you live in NW NJ, NEPA, the Catskill region and Lower-Mid-Hudson Valley (at any reasonable elevation)……get the yardsticks out. You’re gonna need ‘em. Happy tracking 🙂

Hey pal!!! Hope everything is well with you.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21305
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

rb924119 and MattyICE like this post

Back to top Go down

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Empty Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:17 pm

Here’s an interesting development. The GEFS are a lot wetter, and some members track the H5 low in similar fashion to the EURO and NAM. This is the qpf output of the mean and it’s quite telling IMO. 

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 96de3710

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21305
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

rb924119 likes this post

Back to top Go down

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Empty Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

Post by lglickman1 Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:18 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Here’s an interesting development. The GEFS are a lot wetter, and some members track the H5 low in similar fashion to the EURO and NAM. This is the qpf output of the mean and it’s quite telling IMO. 

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 96de3710

You think gets and gfs is coming around to the NAM and euro

lglickman1
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 319
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : New Rochelle, NY

rb924119 likes this post

Back to top Go down

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Empty Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:21 pm

Massive differences between the 12z NAM and GFS at 700mb valid Tuesday morning. Look at the closed low positioning on both. You want to be N&W of it, and the GFS being inland keeps the coast warm and/or dry slotting. 

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 0bf23c10
March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 6041c410

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21305
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Empty Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

Post by heehaw453 Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:26 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Here’s an interesting development. The GEFS are a lot wetter, and some members track the H5 low in similar fashion to the EURO and NAM. This is the qpf output of the mean and it’s quite telling IMO. 

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 96de3710
Yeah I think qpf wise it's not an issue. The issue for me is the temps. Look at the isotherms bend upward on the GEFS. There's probably going to be mid-level energy not too far off shore

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Warmai10

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3906
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

Back to top Go down

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Empty Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:27 pm

lglickman1 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Here’s an interesting development. The GEFS are a lot wetter, and some members track the H5 low in similar fashion to the EURO and NAM. This is the qpf output of the mean and it’s quite telling IMO. 

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 96de3710

You think gets and gfs is coming around to the NAM and euro

Trend is our friend, right? Even the GFS trended in the right direction at H5. 

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Gfs_z500trend_us_4

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21305
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

rb924119 likes this post

Back to top Go down

March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential - Page 7 Empty Re: March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 7 of 10 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum