March 13th-14th 2023 Big Dog Potential

With frank posting so many posts i cant help but get a bit more intrigued. Nam also has rain change to snow earlier for coast. What is time frame that snow kicks in for tristate if it does. If this plays out im guessing i coulf b work from home tues.

Frank_Wx wrote:

thats hot...

The 3k resolution NAM is more impressive than 12K. It actually shows 3 foot snow total amounts in parts of NW NJ. This is clearly an outlier and not to be taken seriously. However, the snowier trend is REAL and we’re just waiting to see the rest of the 12z models come in before sounding the alarms. 

What’s quite bizarre - shocking - sad - is that if the snowfall rates im seeing are anywhere near accurate, some places will triple their year to date snowfall within 1-2 hours

It means absolutely zero but the weather channel app is all in for my town. Now predicting 14 to 22 inches from Monday night through Tuesday afternoon. Like I said last night I have seen maps in the last two days in my area of Orange County showing anything from 4 inches to 36 inches. I am still not sure what to believe.

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I feel like one of those paranormal investigators in a haunted house who is resisting a strong spirit that's trying to possess them.

"You don't have permission to enter my body!"
"The NAM will not possess my soul!"
"I. WILL. RESIST! AAAAARG!!!!"

NAM is known to overamp but also can do really well in this type of setup. Especially as we get into 18z - 0z later today and tonight. I think while the totals are overdone even if we cut by 50% everyone would take that and run. While I do not but the verbatim totals I will buy the snowier trends if 12z GFS can trend and Euro can largely hold. Also need to see the NAM NOT do what it sometimes does and immediately trend the opposite direction in two runs. Cautious optimism.

What if gfs doesnt change but cmc and euro do? Would we discount the gfs then?

Frank_Wx wrote:The 3k resolution NAM is more impressive than 12K. It actually shows 3 foot snow total amounts in parts of NW NJ. This is clearly an outlier and not to be taken seriously. However, the snowier trend is REAL and we’re just waiting to see the rest of the 12z models come in before sounding the alarms. 

What’s quite bizarre - shocking - sad - is that if the snowfall rates im seeing are anywhere near accurate, some places will triple their year to date snowfall within 1-2 hours

those bands over nj nyc and westchester are nuts. Id need 2 hrs or less to double lol. Yes i know im not taking this too seriously yet though hard not to with euro being consistent nam sref and hrrr . Im wait for the mog hold and madonne posts lol and of course the top banner change. Reel it in frank mugs et al.

GFS and RGEM have no snow for NYC and coast

So we literally have no idea what’s going on. Great.

Frank_Wx wrote:So we literally have no idea what’s going on. Great.

This winter is just nuts. lol

Frank_Wx wrote:So we literally have no idea what’s going on. Great.

Exactly, that map puts me in the 4 to 6 inch area where the euro has me close to 30 inches. I said it last night and maybe I just should do it today it might be time to take at least a good 12 hour break from model watching.

Not a good sign that the rgem came up so negative though especially for the city on south. I found that to be pretty reliable this winter.

Frank_Wx wrote:So we literally have no idea what’s going on. Great.

You'd think within 30 hrs of a start time we'd have a very good idea

Watching the 12z run of the NAM 12k, the storm looked like a 100% redo of March 20, 2018. This run actually just brought the G-Z snowfall levels down in to northern OCEAN COUNTY!!  Just miles from my front door!

I still put the probability of any significant accumulating snowfall (ie, >2”) for us down here at only 12.5%. Half of the models show some support for that (that’s a 50% confidence rating) and I have 25% faith in the maps from those models, so, that’s how I got to 12.5%.

That said, For the Jersey Shore, the trend is our friend! Don’t think Jan 2018 or last January, when we were in the bullseye from the get-go. This would have to be more of that March 2018 storm, when we endured seemingly endless and torrential rain, before we back-doored our way in for the last second win! We were also progged for <1” for that storm literally as of the time the snow started.

Ok, I know we’re barely a sidebar down here in this season, so back to the main show, but that’s the report from the Shore.

If the EURO holds serve I’m going to the store to buy ingredients for meatballs. Love meatballs during a snowstorm. 

If it doesn’t I’ll just cry.

Frank_Wx wrote:So we literally have no idea what’s going on. Great.

I'm glad I called the NAM exorcist.

Here is my forecast…Broken Hearts…bank on it….100% Accurate!

But, these snow maps are at 10:1, no way with such wet snow will it hit that, figure 6 or 7:1. And boy will it be heavy. There will be a big difference in accumulation between road surfaces and grassy areas, we could easily lose a few inches if it starts snowing too late here. If we can get the snow in before daybreak we'll have a shot.

dkodgis wrote:Heehaw, it looks like a dusting to an inch or two before rain for you, plus brisk winds. Maybe it will get better. Up here in northern Orange county, LHV, it looks like things may be starting early morning? Is the timing of this ‘zilla going earlier on us?

Maybe it is time to think about ‘zilla-ing out the board banner!

i shall go where the snow decides to go my friend. Im on call Cantore style. Your area in Northern Orange Cty is going to do just fine with this setup. Monday night things get interesting for you I think.

I know I’ve been largely absent, and I apologize, but from the little bit I’ve peeked at this, I have one thing to say:

If you live in NW NJ, NEPA, the Catskill region and Lower-Mid-Hudson Valley (at any reasonable elevation)……get the yardsticks out. You’re gonna need ‘em. Happy tracking

rb924119 wrote:I know I’ve been largely absent, and I apologize, but from the little bit I’ve peeked at this, I have one thing to say:

If you live in NW NJ, NEPA, the Catskill region and Lower-Mid-Hudson Valley (at any reasonable elevation)……get the yardsticks out. You’re gonna need ‘em. Happy tracking

Hey pal!!! Hope everything is well with you.

Here’s an interesting development. The GEFS are a lot wetter, and some members track the H5 low in similar fashion to the EURO and NAM. This is the qpf output of the mean and it’s quite telling IMO. 

Frank_Wx wrote:Here’s an interesting development. The GEFS are a lot wetter, and some members track the H5 low in similar fashion to the EURO and NAM. This is the qpf output of the mean and it’s quite telling IMO. 

You think gets and gfs is coming around to the NAM and euro

Massive differences between the 12z NAM and GFS at 700mb valid Tuesday morning. Look at the closed low positioning on both. You want to be N&W of it, and the GFS being inland keeps the coast warm and/or dry slotting. 

Frank_Wx wrote:Here’s an interesting development. The GEFS are a lot wetter, and some members track the H5 low in similar fashion to the EURO and NAM. This is the qpf output of the mean and it’s quite telling IMO. 

Yeah I think qpf wise it's not an issue. The issue for me is the temps. Look at the isotherms bend upward on the GEFS. There's probably going to be mid-level energy not too far off shore

lglickman1 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Here’s an interesting development. The GEFS are a lot wetter, and some members track the H5 low in similar fashion to the EURO and NAM. This is the qpf output of the mean and it’s quite telling IMO. 

You think gets and gfs is coming around to the NAM and euro

Trend is our friend, right? Even the GFS trended in the right direction at H5.